Pendulum – Australia 2028

The following table shows all House of Representatives electorates contested at the 2025 federal election, ordered according to two-candidate-preferred margin as of 2025.

Electorates in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory will be redrawn prior to the next election – those changes have not yet been factored in to this pendulum.

This pendulum would also change significantly if the parliament is expanded.

Labor Seats Coalition Seats
Seat Margin Seat Margin
Bean (ACT) ALP 0.3% vs IND Goldstein (VIC) LIB 0.1% vs IND
Bullwinkel (WA) ALP 0.5% Longman (QLD) LNP 0.1%
Fremantle (WA) ALP 0.7% vs IND Berowra (NSW) LIB 1.6%
Menzies (VIC) ALP 1.1% La Trobe (VIC) LIB 2.1%
Petrie (QLD) ALP 1.2% Forrest (WA) LIB 2.2%
Solomon (NT) ALP 1.3% Flinders (VIC) LIB 2.3% vs IND
Wills (VIC) ALP 1.4% vs GRN Bowman (QLD) LNP 2.4%
Bendigo (VIC) ALP 1.4% Cowper (NSW) NAT 2.5% vs IND
Forde (QLD) ALP 1.8% Lindsay (NSW) LIB 2.8%
Banks (NSW) ALP 2.4% Casey (VIC) LIB 2.9%
Deakin (VIC) ALP 2.8% Fairfax (QLD) LNP 3.2%
Moore (WA) ALP 2.9% Wannon (VIC) LIB 3.3% vs IND
Melbourne (VIC) ALP 3.0% vs GRN Mitchell (NSW) LIB 3.8%
Hughes (NSW) ALP 3.1% Monash (VIC) LIB 4.1%
Aston (VIC) ALP 3.4% McPherson (QLD) LNP 4.4%
McEwen (VIC) ALP 4.8% Grey (SA) LIB 4.6%
Bonner (QLD) ALP 5.0% Groom (QLD) LNP 5.7% vs IND
Calwell (VIC) ALP 5.1% vs IND Capricornia (QLD) LNP 5.8%
Gilmore (NSW) ALP 5.1% Fisher (QLD) LNP 6.0%
Blair (QLD) ALP 5.7% Farrer (NSW) LIB 6.2% vs IND
Chisholm (VIC) ALP 5.7% Hinkler (QLD) LNP 6.3%
Dickson (QLD) ALP 6.0% Canning (WA) LIB 6.6%
Leichhardt (QLD) ALP 6.1% Fadden (QLD) LNP 6.9%
Whitlam (NSW) ALP 6.2% Cook (NSW) LIB 7.2%
Pearce (WA) ALP 6.4% Wide Bay (QLD) LNP 7.6%
Sturt (SA) ALP 6.6% Wright (QLD) LNP 8.0%
Werriwa (NSW) ALP 6.8% Hume (NSW) LIB 8.1%
Paterson (NSW) ALP 6.9% Moncrieff (QLD) LNP 8.8%
Tangney (WA) ALP 7.0% Page (NSW) NAT 9.3%
Dunkley (VIC) ALP 7.1% Lyne (NSW) NAT 9.8%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 7.2% Durack (WA) LIB 10.2%
Braddon (TAS) ALP 7.2% Flynn (QLD) LNP 10.2%
Hawke (VIC) ALP 7.6% Dawson (QLD) LNP 11.8%
Macquarie (NSW) ALP 7.7% Riverina (NSW) NAT 12.6%
Franklin (TAS) ALP 7.8% vs IND Barker (SA) LIB 13.0%
Corangamite (VIC) ALP 8.0% Parkes (NSW) NAT 13.0%
Bass (TAS) ALP 8.0% O’Connor (WA) LIB 13.3%
Lingiari (NT) ALP 8.1% Herbert (QLD) LNP 13.4%
Hunter (NSW) ALP 9.0% vs ON Nicholls (VIC) NAT 14.4%
Brisbane (QLD) ALP 9.0% New England (NSW) NAT 17.1%
McMahon (NSW) ALP 9.0% Mallee (VIC) NAT 19.0%
Fraser (VIC) ALP 9.2% vs GRN Gippsland (VIC) NAT 19.4%
Bennelong (NSW) ALP 9.3% Maranoa (QLD) LNP 20.1% vs ON
Dobell (NSW) ALP 9.4%
Robertson (NSW) ALP 9.4%
Cooper (VIC) ALP 9.7% vs GRN
Richmond (NSW) ALP 10.0%
Gorton (VIC) ALP 10.3%
Griffith (QLD) ALP 10.6% vs GRN
Ballarat (VIC) ALP 10.7%
Boothby (SA) ALP 11.1%
Shortland (NSW) ALP 11.5%
Lyons (TAS) ALP 11.6%
Macnamara (VIC) ALP 11.8%
Reid (NSW) ALP 12.0%
Parramatta (NSW) ALP 12.5%
Maribyrnong (VIC) ALP 12.6%
Jagajaga (VIC) ALP 12.9%
Corio (VIC) ALP 13.2%
Lalor (VIC) ALP 13.2%
Cowan (WA) ALP 13.6%
Greenway (NSW) ALP 13.8%
Holt (VIC) ALP 14.0%
Swan (WA) ALP 14.0%
Isaacs (VIC) ALP 14.3%
Scullin (VIC) ALP 14.3%
Lilley (QLD) ALP 14.5%
Bruce (VIC) ALP 14.6%
Makin (SA) ALP 14.7%
Gellibrand (VIC) ALP 15.1%
Spence (SA) ALP 15.3%
Rankin (QLD) ALP 15.6%
Macarthur (NSW) ALP 15.6%
Burt (WA) ALP 15.7%
Newcastle (NSW) ALP 15.8% vs GRN
Barton (NSW) ALP 16.0%
Hasluck (WA) ALP 16.0%
Moreton (QLD) ALP 16.1%
Hindmarsh (SA) ALP 16.3%
Watson (NSW) ALP 16.5% vs IND
Perth (WA) ALP 16.5%
Grayndler (NSW) ALP 16.9% vs GRN Bradfield (NSW) IND 0.01% vs LIB
Brand (WA) ALP 16.9% Kooyong (VIC) IND 0.7% vs LIB
Hotham (VIC) ALP 16.9% Fowler (NSW) IND 2.7% vs ALP
Kingsford Smith (NSW) ALP 17.2% Curtin (WA) IND 3.3% vs LIB
Cunningham (NSW) ALP 17.5% Ryan (QLD) GRN 3.3% vs LNP
Adelaide (SA) ALP 19.1% Mackellar (NSW) IND 5.7% vs LIB
Oxley (QLD) ALP 19.2% Calare (NSW) IND 6.8% vs NAT
Canberra (ACT) ALP 19.5% vs GRN Wentworth (NSW) IND 8.3% vs LIB
Chifley (NSW) ALP 19.8% Indi (VIC) IND 8.6% vs LIB
Kingston (SA) ALP 20.7% Warringah (NSW) IND 11.2% vs LIB
Sydney (NSW) ALP 20.9% vs GRN Mayo (SA) CA 14.9% vs ALP
Blaxland (NSW) ALP 21.9% Kennedy (QLD) KAP 15.8% vs LNP
Fenner (ACT) ALP 22.1% Clark (TAS) IND 20.4% vs ALP