Hasluck – Australia 2028

The redistributions have helped Labor here but the margin is very much inflated, I expect a large swing against Labor but they should hold given the size of the margin here.

Yes this margin is inflated but on these boundaries Labor would have won all elections since 2004 with the notable exception of 2013 and 2019. I reckon Labor would have also won in 1998 and 2001 as well as.

liberals wont win this again

@ John
I think if Libs are headed for a 2013 style result they will win this before Brand. This seat has more swing voters and less unionised workforce than Brand.

This is the Blair equivalent of WA – strong working class suburbs with rural elements with a substational NO vote at referendum.

if Hastie becomes leader and had a WA-specific strategy this seat could be an interesting watch.

Hasluck had rural elements under its old boundaries. Not necessarily now, as most of those rural parts got moved to Bullwinkel.

The margin is over-inflated. Out of all of Labor’s 2022 election pickups, this seat has the highest margin. The redistribution last term helped as it removed rural eastern parts. A 16% 2PP swing away from Labor is still hard to believe even when the margin is over-inflated.

On current boundaries Libs can win this seat if Labor is headed for a 2013 style defeat.

@nimlana I reckon this will move further west into labor territory after 2028 if wa gets another seat. Cowan and Brand would make for good targets if Hastie were to get in and if both meme era were on their way out.

@ John
I am only looking at current boundaries and not factoring redistributions or additional seats. Hasluck is not very diverse but i agree Brand is even more White. Brand has a unionised workforce which helps Labor which Hasluck does not have. Also Hasluck is more mortage belt with a lot more housing estates which are volatile.

im looking at seats they can reasonably win next. Haslucks margin is too big for even Hastie to overcome at this election. susan ley has a better chance of becoming labor leader then the next prime minister or winning here. Brand workforce is gonna be heavily involved in the AUKUS program which should help the coalition especially as more defence families move in. Hasluck is moving into the labor heartland which the libs can not reliably hope to win. given Hasties success in the parts of Rokcingham Canning has absorbed a defence orientated candidate may be of use to the Libs here.

Given the success of One Nation polling I wonder if this would be a target seat. This electorate is based on Midland (my suburb) strong working class Labor voting population that One Nation could tap into.

I would say if it is White Battlers then both ONP and someone like Hastie will target but i think the margin means there will need to target over 2 election cycles.
ONP or a Hastie led Liberals will not appeal to CALD working class areas like Thornlie etc

I know this seat well and go to the area frequently – while areas in the east of Hasluck (Midland and the Swan Valley) could be One Nation friendly in ’28, the Caversham-Ellenbrook corridor (east of Whiteman Park and west of the Swan River) has a high ethnic minority and young family population, and won’t be very friendly to ON or a Hastie-led Liberal party (to add on to what Nimalan said).

Guildford/Bassendean are very Green-friendly, and Noranda has voted Liberal in the past. In my opinion, this will be a tough seat for Labor to lose on these boundaries, especially with the growth of that corridor east of Whiteman Park.

I wonder if the Coalition split continues indefinitely that it makes it easier for Nationals to wind back support for multiculturalism whereas it makes it harder for the Liberal Party to wind back their support for multiculturalism?

One Nation support tends to be lower in middle suburbia. I see the Greens made some gains last election in working class suburbs that are middle-ring and/or CALD. Better bets for One Nation would be towards the east coast.

@ Marh
I think while official multiculturalism may continue I think today it is more conditional and less celebrated like it was the 1990s especially during the Hawke/Keating years. Today there a lot of talk about “Australian Values”, “Social Cohesian”, “Integration”. Paul Keating never used words like “Western Civilisation”, “Judeo-Christian” etc
So while today Australia is much more diverse than back then what people imagined Australia would be like did not come to pass I think that started around 2001, Cronulla Riots and I think Bondi has reinforced that trejectory. Maybe Liberals may re-defined Multiculturalism as a shared National Culture with minority subcultures that do not conflict with the National culture. A bit like English is said to be National language but Other languages are taught and promoted but they are not seen as equal to English.