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The redistributions have helped Labor here but the margin is very much inflated, I expect a large swing against Labor but they should hold given the size of the margin here.
Yes this margin is inflated but on these boundaries Labor would have won all elections since 2004 with the notable exception of 2013 and 2019. I reckon Labor would have also won in 1998 and 2001 as well as.
liberals wont win this again
@ John
I think if Libs are headed for a 2013 style result they will win this before Brand. This seat has more swing voters and less unionised workforce than Brand.
This is the Blair equivalent of WA – strong working class suburbs with rural elements with a substational NO vote at referendum.
if Hastie becomes leader and had a WA-specific strategy this seat could be an interesting watch.
Hasluck had rural elements under its old boundaries. Not necessarily now, as most of those rural parts got moved to Bullwinkel.
The margin is over-inflated. Out of all of Labor’s 2022 election pickups, this seat has the highest margin. The redistribution last term helped as it removed rural eastern parts. A 16% 2PP swing away from Labor is still hard to believe even when the margin is over-inflated.
On current boundaries Libs can win this seat if Labor is headed for a 2013 style defeat.
@nimlana I reckon this will move further west into labor territory after 2028 if wa gets another seat. Cowan and Brand would make for good targets if Hastie were to get in and if both meme era were on their way out.
@ John
I am only looking at current boundaries and not factoring redistributions or additional seats. Hasluck is not very diverse but i agree Brand is even more White. Brand has a unionised workforce which helps Labor which Hasluck does not have. Also Hasluck is more mortage belt with a lot more housing estates which are volatile.
im looking at seats they can reasonably win next. Haslucks margin is too big for even Hastie to overcome at this election. susan ley has a better chance of becoming labor leader then the next prime minister or winning here. Brand workforce is gonna be heavily involved in the AUKUS program which should help the coalition especially as more defence families move in. Hasluck is moving into the labor heartland which the libs can not reliably hope to win. given Hasties success in the parts of Rokcingham Canning has absorbed a defence orientated candidate may be of use to the Libs here.