Comments for The Tally Room https://www.tallyroom.com.au Fri, 19 Aug 2022 19:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 Comment on Melton – Victoria 2022 by Daniel https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/melton2022/comment-page-1#comment-774638 Fri, 19 Aug 2022 19:21:02 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44744#comment-774638 Liberals obviously don’t expect to win this by parachuting an MP from the opposite side of Melbourne. But they think they can keep this marginal. The margin here is clearly low for Labor due to issues as the last election, so a swing back to Labor is possible but also could be canceled out due to lockdown, and anti-Dan in the western parts. Although it is extremely unlikely this candidate is the right one to capitalise on that.

Possibly will stay around the 4-5% margin after the election for Labor.

I wouldn’t rule out a Dai-Le style independent winning here in future if the Liberals cannot. This is still natural Labor territory.

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Nimalan https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774618 Fri, 19 Aug 2022 00:09:12 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774618 @ Marh, also regarding SEIFA, i don’t dismiss it but like you pointed out it is an imperfect measure. I use it often in my commentary on this forum. It often indirectly measures class but not directly. I think if get an Adjusted SEIFA score that excludes growth areas and only uses owner-occupied single family homes so we compare apples to apples then the ranking maybe a better reflection of class. For example, Ashburton has a score of 90 even though it includes some significant social housing around Alamein which Labor often wins that booth. If this was excluded i believe it will exceed Templestowe and maybe even Park Orchards. Kirribilli will exceed The Ponds etc. In many cases i think SEIFA ranks are accurate description of class for example Eaglemont has a score of 100 and even if there is an adjusted SEIFA it will remain very high.

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Comment on South-West Coast – Victoria 2022 by WanderWest https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/swcoast2022/comment-page-1#comment-774616 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 23:53:37 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44775#comment-774616 Great to see a progressive independent has come forward to stand here. Warrnambool-based journalist Carol Altmann.

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Nimalan https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774615 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 23:48:12 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774615 @ Marh, 100% agree with your Whitehorse analysis. Just would add a lot of the Box Hill North especially around Kerrimuir locality also fits with the standard middle class like Blackburn South etc and also a bit different from the immigrant heavy Central Box Hill. IMV view a lot of the southern parts of Doncaster are not different from the northern most parts of Whitehorse for example around the Beverley Hills booth. It is also the case that the part of Blackburn around the lake is often more desirable and expensive that the southern parts of Doncaster. Which is why i say that the Manningham/Whitehorse divide is not as sharp as the Manningham/Boroondara divide. It would be interesting to look at Banyule as it has elite territory, Upper Middle Class, Standard Middle Class, Lower Middle Class and disadvantaged territory.

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Marh https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774603 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:50:15 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774603 @Nimalan, I think one reason why Doncaster has a low Seifa is due to high percentage of newer immigrants where they are more likely to not declare or only declare a little bit of their income. Immigrant disproportionately work in cash jobs (technically illegal) or/and only have most of their income from relatives overseas which would not be declared to the ATO

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Marh https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774602 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:41:42 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774602 Whitehorse has a mix of elite territory like Mont Albert/Surrey Hills and Burwood to some extent, immigrant heavy Box Hill, truely streotypical middle class Nunawading/ Mitcham/ Blackburn South, tree changing Blackburn and to a lesser extent Mitcham, Upper Middle Class Vermont/Vermont South,Lower Middle Class Forest Hill and mixed income Burwood/ Burwood East

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Nimalan https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774599 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:21:54 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774599 @ Nicholas, you have raised a good point about SEIFA and whether that describes class. My personal view is it does not and especially for growth areas. SEIFA is about the level of disadvantage rather than wealth. In many cases it does not align especially in areas where there is higher density. Croydon Hills has a SEIFA score of 97. While it is a desirable to live in it is not particularly expensive and house prices are just above Melbourne’s median. Doncaster actually has a significantly lower SEIFA score of 69 and Doncaster East at 78 even though house prices are significantly more in Doncaster area. Why is this? Doncaster has significantly more high density, units so will have some low income/Disadvantaged residents especially around Doncaster Hill where there is some social housing as well. Croydon Hills actually has a higher SEIFA than Templestowe which has a score of 93. In fact Yallambie which is very standard middle class has a score of 94 higher than Templestowe! although house prices are much lower. For Sydney, Kirribilli has a score of only 86 lower than the Ponds but i would describe that area as Elite if you look at house prices, intergenerational wealth etc. So i am not taking SEIFA into consideration when determining social class. Lets look at the Ponds. We need to first remember that it is a growth area which means there results are skewed. There will be fewer retired people, Adult Children still living with parents, Unemployed, renters etc. Property prices are not high here compared to the Sydney average. What sort of residents live in The Ponds etc a lot of them are young South Asian professionals many of them came as International students while they are high income and educated many of them did not have large deposits if they did i feel they may have opted for Carlingford etc where there good quality Public Schools or Strathfield where there is also a South Asian community. Parts of Sydney which i would consider Elite/Upper Class would be the all of the Lower North Shore, Ku-ring-gai Shire, Hunters Hill LGA, Wollahara Council, Dover Heights and Tamarama in Waverley Council, Centennial Park, parts of Strathfield, some parts of the Northern Beaches such as Clontarf, Fairlight, Seaforth, Palm Beach (excluding the more middle Class Forest District and some parts such as Dee Why). In Melbourne it would be Boroondara, Stonnington, Bayside council (excluding more inland suburbs along Frankston Line), Caulfield North in Glen Eira, Albert Park/Middle Park in Port Phillip, East Melbourne, Mont Albert/Surrey Hills in Whitehorse, Eaglemont/Ivanhoe East in Banyule and maybe parts of the Mornington Peninsula such as Portsea, Sorrento and Mount Eliza. Yes i would consider Cherrybrook to be Upper Middle Class. Once again, Nicholas happy to be challenged 🙂

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Nicholas https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774595 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 10:20:34 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774595 Thanks @Nimalan for the explanation! Your comparisons seem accurate to me.

I wonder if that should make me feel better about my prospects of someday owning an acreage in Templestowe ($3,000,000 or more) or if it’s a statement of just how locked out my generation is from the housing market!

On the definition of “middle class” – I take it you would describe Cherrybrook as “upper middle class” (and that sounds about right to me). IIRC, SEIFA has Cherrybrook in the 98th or 99th percentile. If we assume that SEIFA rankings align with class descriptors, this leaves very little room for what suburbs could be considered upper class. And those suburbs might end up including The Ponds and Colebee! How do you account for this? Would you say that SEIFA doesn’t paint the full picture when it comes to class?

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Nimalan https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774594 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 10:09:04 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774594 Nicholas, i would describe Templestowe as upper middle class for the most part, some parts around Templestowe Village (west of Williamsons Road) are more comfortable middle class. I do agree there are some huge brick palaces around Church Road but the population density is low so it only makes % of Templestowe overall population but much of the area consists of McMansions. I would compare Templestowe to Castle Hill/West Pennant Hills. Park Orchards is entirely Upper Middle class but it is a semi-rural area white large blocks so it is hard to compare with purely suburban area like Borondoora. If we compare land price for same size blocks it is not even close. Even the poorest suburb in Borondoora, Ashburton has a similar median house price to Park Orchards (most expensive in Manningham) even though land sizes are smaller. Park Orchards is like Glenhaven/Dural. I feel Borondoora is similar to Kur-ring-gai (even Mont Albert is similar). i always enjoy your contribution so happy for you to share alternative thoughts and if there are better comparisons to Sydney etc.

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Comment on Kew – Victoria 2022 by Trent https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kew2022/comment-page-1#comment-774593 Thu, 18 Aug 2022 10:00:50 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=44780#comment-774593 I agree with all that Labor would have a better chance in Bulleen than a teal, but realistically I don’t think either would win.

However, a teal running would make the Liberals dedicate more resources to sandbagging it which is why I just think tactically a teal in Bulleen would be a clever way to make the Libs have to focus on 7 relatively “inner” seats that in previous elections they’ve been able to take for granted, while at the same time trying to win back middle seats and target outer seats.

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