Comments for The Tally Room https://www.tallyroom.com.au Mon, 23 May 2022 14:14:16 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 Comment on Kooyong – Australia 2022 by Laine https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/kooyong2022/comment-page-5#comment-770771 Mon, 23 May 2022 14:14:16 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=43043#comment-770771 @ Political Nightwatchman Well to be fair there is virtually no safe Liberal seat left in Victoria that somebody can step aside from for Frydenberg so… La Trobe, Flinders and Wannon are the only 3 that did not swing to Labor as far as I know and even Wannon was at risk of an independent.

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Comment on Major party vote at all time low by John Smith https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47834/comment-page-1#comment-770768 Mon, 23 May 2022 13:42:34 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=47834#comment-770768 I don’t think the two-party system would break down since the IRV system in the House of Reps inherently supports a two-party system. What I think is most likely the party system morphs into something like in NZ with major parties consistently relying on the support of minor parties. Basically halfway between the usual 2 party system in Australia and the multiparty parliaments in Europe.

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Comment on Deakin – Australia 2022 by Trent https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/deakin2022/comment-page-2#comment-770767 Mon, 23 May 2022 13:14:07 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=43035#comment-770767 Xenu, I also think we can assume the following about the Covid votes (both postal & telephone):
– Probably most similar to “ordinary votes” as these are people who planned to vote on the day;
– Probably excludes most of the anti-lockdown / “freedom party” types who are least likely to actually do RATs or report results (and subsequently have to isolate) now that testing isn’t compulsory
– As you say, also more likely to be younger

So I think the Covid votes, both by phone & postal, are likely to be a slightly more left variation of the ordinary vote. That will be the complete opposite of the traditional postal votes.

That’s why I’m not writing off Labor in Deakin or the Greens in Macnamara just yet. I’m really curious to see what happens with a) The phone votes, we don’t even know how many yet; and b) The postals that were requested between Saturday (the first day that testing positive meant isolation on election day) and COB Tuesday, which are most likely to be the ones not received back by the AEC yet.

Deakin only has about 1500 postal envelopes issued but not received, but Macnamara still has 2200. All of those won’t be returned; but I think we can safely assume that most that are returned will be Covid votes and not break anything like the other postals, and even the ones already received will probably start getting gradually less Liberal dominated too as the count progresses.

Absentee votes haven’t started being counted yet either. I think while all the modelling suggests the Liberals will hold Deakin and Labor will hold Macnamara, there could very well be surprises in both if Covid is a wildcard that the modelling has missed.

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Comment on Kooyong – Australia 2022 by Political Nightwatchman https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/kooyong2022/comment-page-5#comment-770766 Mon, 23 May 2022 13:07:41 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=43043#comment-770766 Josh Frydenberg has conceded today. One Liberal anonymously suggested today in the Courier Mail Alan Tudge should step aside for Josh Frydenberg. Tudge’s seat of Aston has a significantly reduced margin so it would be a risk to do it.

Fairly or unfairly Frydenberg lost a previously safe Liberal seat though. Its like Kristina Keneally losing Fowler. Once a pilot crashes a plane they won’t get a second chance.

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Comment on Major party vote at all time low by Mark Graph https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47834/comment-page-1#comment-770765 Mon, 23 May 2022 13:02:39 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=47834#comment-770765 An important long term trend, which cannot continue much further without a breakdown of the major two-party system.

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Comment on Lindsay – Australia 2022 by Votante https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/lindsay2022/comment-page-2#comment-770764 Mon, 23 May 2022 12:53:19 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=42050#comment-770764 The Liberal party got swings to them in areas where traditional, stereotypical Labor voters are dominant e.g. working class, blue-collar workers. I read in the AFR that welfare recipients and single-parent and one-income households had also swung to the Liberals. They mentioned as examples Tasmania and Western Sydney. This election has some of the hallmarks as Trump’s victory in 2016 and Boris Johnson’s in 2019 when they won over traditional blue collar workers.

UAP/ONP were really popular in south-western Sydney and in Lindsay to a lesser extent. It might have to do with pandemic politics.

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Comment on Deakin – Australia 2022 by Daniel https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/deakin2022/comment-page-2#comment-770763 Mon, 23 May 2022 12:25:03 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=43035#comment-770763 If he wins, Sukkar I predict will almost certainly be Shadow Treasurer.

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Comment on An expanding crossbench and the chances of a hung parliament by Daniel https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47811/comment-page-1#comment-770762 Mon, 23 May 2022 12:14:31 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=47811#comment-770762 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/the-crossbenchers-after-election-teal-greens-independents/101088236

I wasn’t aware Mackellar was in Victoria? It says Mackellar (Vic)

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Comment on Aston – Australia 2022 by Adam https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/aston2022/comment-page-2#comment-770761 Mon, 23 May 2022 12:07:23 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=43108#comment-770761 If Labor had given this seat ANY resources they would have won it. If future redistributions push this either north or east it could be lost to Labor when there is a strong swing. If it needs to expand outside of Knox it would likely be into Bayswater North, Heathmont etc

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Comment on Berowra – Australia 2022 by Nicholas https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/berowra2022/comment-page-1#comment-770760 Mon, 23 May 2022 12:03:27 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=42198#comment-770760 I’m a former resident of Beecroft and Cherrybrook, and it is shocking to me how soft the Liberal vote has become across the Berowra electorate. Booths in Asquith, Berowra Heights, and Normanhurst have flipped Labor, while Cheltenham, Pennant Hills, and Thornleigh are virtually tied. Cherrybrook and West Pennants Hills are usually very strong Liberal territory but voted with only a single-digit margin for the Liberals this time. Beecroft has become marginal. Only the five-acre block district is what has kept this seat in the very safe category. There’s plenty of other seats demonstrating how catastrophic this election was for the Liberals, but even Berowra shows it too.

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