Comments for The Tally Room https://www.tallyroom.com.au Wed, 28 Oct 2020 04:18:09 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.15 Comment on Warrego – QLD 2020 by Lilith333 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/warrego2020/comment-page-1#comment-748460 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 04:18:09 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39980#comment-748460 I don’t see how much can change in the next three days so I think I’ll be pounding the gavel on my own electorate here.

Rick Gurnett is a good candidate, and although I disagree with him and the Katter party itself on a number of important issues, I would much prefer him representing us than the LNP. At the end of the day though, Dalby is the largest urban centre in this division and it’s his biggest blockade. The LibNats have been quite strong there historically and especially taking into account the events of the past few months I just can’t see them shifting their support in favor of Labor or the Katter’s. Maybe the KAP can make some inroads but it just doesn’t seem that Gurnett appeals to them well. Very difficult for the Katter’s to have any path to victory which still involves Leahy winning Dalby booths by upper 50s, if not 60s % of the vote.

I’d love for a KAP win here but unfortunately it just seems outgunned by establishment-supporting LibNat voters in the bigger towns. To be fair I haven’t seen much of the ground game, things seem quiet but they’re somewhat equal in terms of campaign signs at least.

LNP will probably retain. Hopefully with a significantly reduced margin.

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Comment on Rockhampton – QLD 2020 by Queensland Observer https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/rockhampton2020/comment-page-1#comment-748459 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 04:01:46 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39721#comment-748459 Can’t see this one falling. The Independent vote from last time shouldn’t particularly go to anyone but you may see alo fair chunk go back to Labor. Katter enteri g just further splits One Natio and LNP votes. On top of that it seems the One Nation vote will drop across the state and even if the LNP vote goes up, it won’t be close enough to win it off preferences.

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Comment on Rockhampton – QLD 2020 by Feel the Bern https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/rockhampton2020/comment-page-1#comment-748458 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:53:34 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39721#comment-748458 Final Prediction: Labor Retain, albeit Winediamond makes some decent points.

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Comment on Aspley – QLD 2020 by Feel the Bern https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/aspley2020/comment-page-1#comment-748457 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:51:34 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39692#comment-748457 Final prediction: Too close to call (should have been a give me for the LNP), leaning LNP gain.

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Comment on Rockhampton – QLD 2020 by winediamond https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/rockhampton2020/comment-page-1#comment-748456 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:42:07 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39721#comment-748456 Torin O,Brien (ON) was on PML Tuesday. Really impressive young guy. On pure instinct he will get this. TALKED ABOUT
1/ CRIME real escalation
2/ Barry O’rourke lying about iron radio, saying stats had improved !!. Police stats show otherwise
3/ Abattoirs employing 457 visas – leading to unemployment.
4/ Torin is 3rd gen meatworker – cred

It seems little has been learned from the ALP’s “results” last year, re Capricornia.

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Comment on Woodridge – QLD 2020 by Daniel https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/woodridge2020/comment-page-1#comment-748454 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:28:31 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39960#comment-748454 PRP and RH, reasons as to why you think the LNP will win the election? The opinion polls and betting markets disagree with you and Morrison is unpopular which doesn’t help anyone, And historically the governing party in Canberra doesn’t gain state elections from the opposition with the exception of SA 2018 and TAS 2014 but what did those 2 have in common? Both ALP governments were in power for a long time (16 years)

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Comment on South Brisbane – QLD 2020 by Andrew Jackson https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/southbrisbane2020/comment-page-3#comment-748453 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 02:39:12 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39711#comment-748453 Dean Ashley, Fair points with a lot of truth. Especially last paragraph. I often wonder if Vince Gair actually would have chosen eternal opposition if he was looking in hindsite. However I feel sure that the DLP membership that I joined in 1969 would not have compromised. Most of them never gave up. a year ago there was a day on which two of them who must now be in their nineties were still hammering away at the typewriter with letters to editor in Oz.
At least two from
That era will have some impact on this election. There are ALP MP’s defeated in recent years by the efforts of these old men.
Vince Gair was not a likeable man but he managed to inspire great respect for himself in others. My last words to him were not very kind because unlike many of his followers he was bought off. My words were “Vince Gair A man you can trust” and I then walked away. He died a year later. Even after his despicable sell out his coffin was carried by Groupers, Movement men and ex Senator Condon Byrne.

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Comment on Woodridge – QLD 2020 by PRP https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/woodridge2020/comment-page-1#comment-748452 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 02:25:46 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39960#comment-748452 I agree with all of RH321’s predictions except McConnel which I think will fall to the Greens and Mirani will fall to the LNP.

Thuringowa i think will fall to either KAP or LNP, but I can’t see it being retained by Labor.

Current predictions:

ALP definite 35 with likely another 5 (Cairns, Cook, Gaven, Mansfield and Pumicestone)

LNP definite 36 with likely another 9 (Aspley, Burdekin, Caloundra, Currumbin, Glass House, Mirani, Mundingburra, Oodgeroo, Redlands)

Greens definite 2 with likely 1 more (McConnel)

Katter Party definite 3 with likely 1 more (Thuringowa)

Independent definite 1 (Noosa)

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Comment on South Brisbane – QLD 2020 by Dean Ashley https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/southbrisbane2020/comment-page-3#comment-748451 Wed, 28 Oct 2020 02:15:10 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=39711#comment-748451 @Andrew Jackson – I don’t think either party will split.

The Libs and Nats are always going to have the issue of attracting city voters who will vote LNP federally (for a candidate who will sit in the Liberal party room) but refuse to vote for them at state level when any government would be led by a Nat. But de-merging doesn’t solve that. I think they’d be even less of a shot at winning those votes as the potential junior partner in a Coalition than they are as the LNP with a rural leader. As for the prospect of the Nats walking… they need those city seats to be won as well. Yes, a split would help them fend off the likes of One Nation and KAP, but frankly, the prize in the city is bigger if they want to be in government.

As for the ALP, I think they are effectively a Coalition between the forces you mention. The factions slug it out and they keep the dissent to a level that allows them to share the brand. A split would require one side to abandon that brand and I just don’t see it. In a Proportional Representation situation, sure, splits everywhere. But unicameral Queensland is the last place you’d start trying to build a new brand.

I’d like to think that there are still some politicians like those of the 1950s that would choose eternal opposition before compromising principle. But I don’t think there’s enough of them for one of the major parties to fracture. You saw what happened in NSW when Barilaro went to the edge of the political abyss but declined to jump.

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Comment on Nanango – QLD 2020 by Andrew Jackson https://www.tallyroom.com.au/qld2020/nanango2020/comment-page-1#comment-748447 Tue, 27 Oct 2020 22:56:39 +0000 https://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=40000#comment-748447 Last night on ABC election broadcast prior to 7 PM news Frecklington sounded professional for first time in my memory. She spent most of time extolling what she saw as virtues of her policy and came close to ignoring ALP. If she had behaved in this way from
Her election as Leader of Opposition she or her candidate would Have gained my vote or preference. As it is her nightly vomit about Palaszczuk and ALP lost it. I have already cast my postal ballot for ALP candidate Chris Whiting in Bancroft.

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