Comments for The Tally Room Fri, 30 Oct 2020 03:15:46 +0000 hourly 1 Comment on Redlands – QLD 2020 by winediamond Fri, 30 Oct 2020 03:15:46 +0000 QO
i’M inclined to agree & back you. However there is nothing obnoxious about Kim Richards, & she seems to have a good story to tell. Unless there is a noticeable swing to the LNP i don’t think they will quite get there
so Toss up LNP lean

Comment on Redlands – QLD 2020 by Peter Knopke Fri, 30 Oct 2020 02:27:15 +0000 PN .. Odds on Sportsbet are basically irrelevant .. There is no evidence that anyone is actually betting for a start and if there are bets, the odds could drop with a bet as small as $5 or $10. eg. in 2015 I tried to put $10 on Bruce Saunders to win Maryborough at odds of 20/1 .. they only let me put on $5 and dropped the odds to 12/1 after my small bet.
A candidate who had a bit of spare money could put say $100 on themselves at $2.00 and then have odds of $1.50 .. It means nothing as far as the outcome goes. Let’s face it, Sportsbet have about as much idea as anyone about seat results – they don’t have access to any special polls or “form”.

Comment on Cook – QLD 2020 by winediamond Fri, 30 Oct 2020 02:02:35 +0000 PK
I’ll let you in on a little secret : No one cares about Tasmania !.& the same about SA EXCEPT for the wineries !. They are irrelevant, except that they pervert our democracy through overrepresentation — the senate.
We have to pay for those bludgers anyway, a little more or less –meh.

OTH QLD is haemorrhaging money, jobs, etc. ANOTHER secret Glady’s has her own problems…..! OR DID YOU MISS THAT !?
Scotty is a little preoccupied with Dan ATM. Aren’t you being a little QLD centric ?.

Thanks for the advice on SKY. Having studied the enneagram for 12 years i tend to take more notice of whom the info comes from, rather than where. Motivations are important. Bear in mind SKY has considerable reach into regional Australia, & few posters here watch it. always trying to help out !
cheers WD

Comment on Maiwar – QLD 2020 by Glen Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:55:55 +0000 Bennee – I know that a notable portion of the swing is a double-stage swing, LNP->ALP and ALP->Greens, but you underestimate the crossover that can happen in inner-city seats between LNP and Greens. There is a certain subset of middle-to-upper class individuals who support the LNP for economic issues, but are also environmentally conscious and socially more liberal than conservative. The left/right dichotomy is a false one.

And I recognise that there are other factors involved. But that’s kind of the point – there are multiple factors involved, and if you focus exclusively on one of those factors, you may miss the other ones. For instance, voters who went Green last time but want to support Palaszczuk, or who want to support female candidates in the LNP, or who voted that way in 2017 to send a message. There are many factors.

Let me be clear – I think the Greens will hold, with additional margin. I just don’t think you can draw conclusions from the “Greens hold on to seats they win in general elections” logic, without at least first exploring other factors.

Comment on Redlands – QLD 2020 by Redland Resident Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:52:48 +0000 Strong ground game from LNP candidate, 10,000 dors knocked, shooters and farmers+ one nation + UAP support this time as well as no Dowling factor will help the LNP

potential LNP Gain

Comment on Podcast #46: The day before Queensland by Mark Beath Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:52:04 +0000 Pronunciation of Barron River could do with some finesse there 🙂

Comment on Cook – QLD 2020 by AlexJ Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:49:32 +0000 HTVs as I can find them:
KAP have ONP second, but your choice of LNP or ALP at #6 and #7.
ONP have KAP second, LNP before ALP.
LNP have ONP before KAP. Revenge for the split ticket?

So I think KAP winning on prefs means they probably need to have ONP finish fourth to kick off the snowball.

UAP are running a non-local candidate (Batzke was #3 on Palmer’s senate ticket last year, so Goulmy is perhaps a late replacement); preferencing LNP at #2, minor right, KAP, ONP.

NQF’s candidate is a local Aboriginal mayor, for those wondering. NQF appear to be consistently preferencing KAP #2.

Batzke appears to be going with a straight donkey vote, so that’s LNP #2, and then ONP before KAP.

Labor appear to have KAP #2.

Comment on Redlands – QLD 2020 by Redland Resident Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:40:17 +0000 The listed 13 seats did not include Gaven either, which is super marginal. reporting or not isnt a good indicator. over 10,000 doors knocked by the LNP candidate as well as the LNP candidate being 2nd on the ballot, with labor as 6th. This seat could be lost by labor due to complacency and false confidence from the current member. UAP + Shooters and fishers and one nation support to the LNP candidate in the area, unlike last time.

potential LNP gain (margin of 1 or 2%)

Comment on Redlands – QLD 2020 by Political Nightwatchman Fri, 30 Oct 2020 01:04:59 +0000 This seat is once again not getting much attention despite the tight odds on Sportsbet. It wasn’t mention in the ABC QLD state election podcast, and wasn’t listed in the 13 seats to watch out for on election night in the Courier Mail. This is despite the fact Mark Robinson neighboring seat of Oodgeroo was listed despite having a bigger margin. The less I hear about this seat the more I’m thinking it’s status quo with the current member enjoying the benefit of a sophomore surge. Labor retain.

Comment on Bundaberg – QLD 2020 by Mick Quinlivan Fri, 30 Oct 2020 00:51:22 +0000 Bundaberg used to be like Rockhampton or Mackay ….. but this has changed and most times the default result is lnp held. That said a popular sitting mp can retain……… Also there was a bit of an own goal by the prev mp……….