Farrer by-election, 2026

I wonder if Michelle Milthorpe will run here and if she’ll be able to cut through that bit further. If Lee is still leader when the next election is over she’ll have to be out of the seat so if electorate doesn’t rally behind here she could be in trouble. If Lee is dumped as leader and retires I expect the Liberals will lose this and either the independent or Nationals will win it.

She says she will. I’d say the libs would retain here its too urban for the Nats. In fact the libs might get a swing too them without Ley.

Ley will get a a juicy pension when she retires. At this rate, I don’t see her becoming the PM. If she gets dumped this term, I’d expect her to retire from politics.

Interestingly, the independent candidate in 2025 won the 2CP at all booths in Sussan Ley’s hometown of Albury. She even beat Ley on primary votes at some booths in Albury. It’s not surprising since there is normally a strong primary vote for Labor and the Greens in Albury.

I doubt a teal candidate would win this. Other than Albury, most of the electorate depends on carbon-intensive primary industries.

In a way it’s unfortunate that electorates have to be contained to state boundaries, because clearly Albury shares a very strong community of interest with Wodonga and they would be well served by a mostly urban seat based on the wider Albury-Wodonga region, rather than this expansive rural seat. Given how rural it is, surely Nats would win a by-election.

You could make arguments for ditching state boundaries as boundaries for electorates. Albury-Wodonga and the Gold Coast-Tweed Heads are similar communities, but they’re represented way differently.

However, when we get into the process of redistributions, that’s where it gets tricky.

CJ, the issue of major urban areas crossing state borders is not a unique one to Australia. In the US, there are many examples of metropolitan areas which cross multiple state borders (most notably New York City with suburban areas that extend into adjacent New Jersey, but others like Cincinnati-Covington which straddles Ohio and Kentucky and Kansas City which straddles Kansas and Missouri). In all these cases, congressional districts cannot cross state borders and thus these urban areas will be disjoined.

Adam as a resident i can assure you this would be a lib vs ind seat. Most of the population is contained in Albury. Corowa or Griffith.

Cj the difference is albury wodonga is seperatedated by and island and river. Gold Coast is not near Tweed Heads its about 30-40 minutes away. It’s coolangatta thats near Tweed Heads. You can literally walk between them. You can stand in coolangatta and Tweed at the same time. During daylight savings you can be in two different time zones.

Cross border seats would never happen as the seats are divided by state with each state being entitled to a certain. Umber of seats.

I personally have no love for Ley. I would be willing to wager the lib voters might actually improve in her absence.

new demos poll has onp winning 12 lower house seats
https://demosau.com/news/mrp-model-projects-one-nation-would-win-12-seats/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOdvsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETBrRDBkeDFFUjA3Y1lFc0Qzc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHo6jMHuBSSJUa5cbMi7YldbJ6Jc0Jn4NIQT2s4ZsiYtIMlcUKxjUrpHd7de9_aem_0umJvrtWbRojtruLGR-Dtw

I can’t confidently comment on whether Liberals will improve when Ley leaves, but an election (or by-election) without her could worsen Coalition relations and expose grievances between the Liberals and Nationals. I remember Anthony Green stating how the Nationals hated losing it in 2001 and are likely to contest Farrer. I’d also point out how the Nationals have become more emboldened, so them gunning for Farrer at the expense of the Liberals doesn’t seem out of the ordinary.

Imo, that race is likely to become incredibly messy race between the Liberals, Nationals (I’d assume they’d run someone with a high profile like Perin Davey) and Michelle Milthorpe.

@lurking it wont an unoccupied seat is fair game under the coalition agreement. they are both free to contest any seat that doesnt have a sitting coalition member. tbh i think ley has been dragging tdown the lib vote here. I for one will be still voting One Nation. (honestly its to help them out financially as they wont win the seat but they get $ per first preference.) outside of that i will wait until the candidates are announced should she retire before deciding which one to back.

Let’s say One Nation’s vote increases (maybe Labor’s too by a bit) at the expense of the Liberals. If both Liberals and Nationals contest and a teal independent contests, it could create a vote-splitting scenario.

Votante. I reckon the nats would probably win here

The teal has already said she intends to recontest

@John December 5, 2025 at 10:09 am
I am aware an unoccupied seat is fair game, but there’s no guarantee that there won’t be some grievances aired out during the campaign. I suspect some mudslinging will have to happen because Liberals are not going to idle stand by and the Nationals have a two decades old score to settle. In addition these parties will have to have to make themselves appear to be the better option.

Yes but Ley needs to retire first. Secondly the nats and libs are not gonna risk giving the seat to a teal. They would rather a peaceful campaign in which one of them wins then a civil war that’s drives people to the teal. I suspect the nats will win this seat if they contest. This seat is a lot more regional then Indi. I for one will be voting on merit. 1. One nation 2&3 lib/nat. Teal last. Greens second last.

There are several unknowns. Ley might even still be the leader come the next election to everyone’s surprise.

If there’s a leadership spill this term and she loses, I reckon she’d retire as would some of her disappointed close supporters. It’s like how Gillard and her close allies retired in 2013 after Rudd retook the leadership. She might retire the next day.

Gillard and supporters retires because the govt was tanking and going down.

If ley wants to lead them to the election she’ll need to improve her poll numbers in the next 6 months.

Ley seems to be on borrowed time. The Newspoll before the Coalition split last week had One Nation on a higher primary vote than the Coalition. The split did no favours.

If a leadership spill is called, Ley would certainly lose. She’s hanging on partly because the National Right faction has worked out their leadership contender. Tony Abbott has come out urging the conservatives to rally behind Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie and oust Ley.

If Ley is rolled it’s likely she retire which would trigger a by-election but, I don’t think the Liberals would hold onto this.

Would make for a fascinating by election as I imagine both the Nats and Milthorpe would be keen to run whilst ON has all the momentum – but do they have a local candidate ready or do they try and parachute someone in?

Libs wouldn’t hold

I agree that the Libs won’t hold this in an open contest without Ley.

I read that Taylor is just one or two votes short of winning a spill but he might call a spill if the Ley/Littleproud spat goes on.

Liberals will lose this as the voters will not be pleased being forced to an early election.

Farrer by-election to be held in coming months.

It will be a test for One Nation to see how well it performs.

In 2025, there was a left/right primary vote split of about 40/60, assuming the independent is left.

Labor might as well abstain from the by-election as it will be a multi-cornered race. I expect Liberals, Nationals and One Nation and maybe an independent to run. This will be the first electoral test for One Nation following their double-digit polling surge over the past few months.

Given Farrer is adjacent to Indi (just across the River) and the Voices of Indi campaign team and volunteers won’t have their own election to worry about, I’d be surprised if Michelle Milthorpe (if she runs again as the Voices of Farrer independent) doesn’t get a good influx of Indi volunteers from this week on, right up to election day and the scrutineering to follow.

As to the scrutineering (and we can expect at least a Liberal, a National, plus ON, Shooters, Family First, Greens, Milthorpe (or another Voices independent), Farrer may well give the 2025 Calwell scrutiny/count record a run for its money.

Michelle Milthorpe, who ran as an independent and finished 2nd in 2025, will run in the by-election.

Internal liberal polling has ON in front 52/48 with TPP between liberal and ON. Teal Independent close behind

ONP has confirmed they will run a candidate and they have called expressions of interests for candidates.

The Liberals were anxious about losing support to One Nation (and possibly to teals as well). Some even talked about extinction. They ousted Sussan Ley and installed Angus Taylor with the hope that he could revive the Liberals. It’ll be interesting to see if Taylor can win back disaffected, right-wing Coalition voters who are leaning to One Nation.

One Nation’s base tends to be older and outer suburban and regional. They have the potential to come first on primary votes in regional QLD and NSW seats. In Farrer outside of Albury, there’s a possibility of a One Nation achieving this.

@Bentley how did you come across that internal polling?

I imagine ON will be the only competitive party that will talk about the MDBP and water rights during the campaign, and polling for a while now has shown both the Liberals and Nats have lost significant support to them – particularly older, regional and lower income voters, which this electorate is very much over-represented in. Plus it’s a by election so voters can register their protest whilst not changing the government.

Strong possibility too that the Nats have a crack at winning this back also which then splits the Coalition vote

I don’t think Milthorpe does a huge amount of damage, campaigned well in 2025 especially in Albury but lacked impact elsewhere, not sure even the majority of 2025 Labor voters in the western rural parts will automatically go to her.

Michelle Milthorpe has announced she will run again – https://backcountrybulletin.app/NewsStory/independent-michelle-milthorpe-to-contests-farrer/698ec45aae1794002d601a8d . If Helen Dalton, the NSW lower house member for Murray also runs this could be totally fascinating….as they are based in different parts of the electorate, with Milthorpe being strong around Albury and Corowa (east of Murray) and Dalton, from Yenda and water focused, having support both in her MIA and irrigation areas generally, this could be a case where if they exchanged preferences one of the two independents could win. They would expect good leakage of right wing votes if either could get above either National, Liberals or One Nation on first preferences. It might test whether the current mood is one of increased opposition to political parties generally.

This could end up being an independent v One Nation 2CP contest. Has there ever been an election where neither of the top 2 candidates are Labor or Coalition parties?

@Adam,
Honestly that’s what I reckon the final ttp will be. I am curious to know if this is the first time where both major parties don’t make it into the final ttp.

@Adam: “Has there ever been an election where neither of the top 2 candidates are Labor or Coalition parties?”: Yes. The seat of Nicklin in the 2001 Queensland state election was an independent vs One Nation contest. Can’t find one at the federal level though.

At federal level there have been four contests without the major parties.
Hunter in 1931 between Lang Labor and an Independent.
Then Northern Territory in 43 and 46 twice Independent vs Independent.
Finally Wimmera in 43 has independent vs independent. Though some of these independents are listed as “Independent Labor” or “Independent Country” so those three depend on if you consider them true independents.
So 1931 Hunter for sure. The others are more iffy.

The Farrer by-election will be an interesting multi-corner contest with multiple conservative candidates in the race for the final two. The Liberals and One Nation will contest, and the Nationals are also keen to contest. These three parties are all competitive in making 2CP. Independent Michelle Milthorpe contested Farrer in the 2025 federal election, polled 20%, made the 2CP and reduce the Liberal Party’s 2CP margin to 6.2%. She will also be competitive in making 2CP. Labor will likely not contest to give Milthorpe the best chance of victory.

However, the recent surge of One Nation and collapse of the Liberal and National parties in the polls, as well as the cause of the by-election, suggest that One Nation has the potential to gather enough votes from disaffected Coalition voters to push both Liberal and National parties out of the top two on primary votes, or even out of the 2CP. Therefore, there’s a potential for an ON vs LIB/NAT or even an ON vs IND contest. If both the Liberal and the National parties contest, it increases the chance of both parties falling out of the 2CP, since not every LIB or NAT voter will follow HTV cards and preference each other second or even before IND and ON. The recent brief Coalition split increases the animosity between two parties and may make voters for each party less likely to preference the other party second.

In an ON vs LIB/NAT contest, preferences will favour LIB or NAT, because Milthorpe’s voters are overwhelmingly moderate or centre-left and won’t like One Nation. In an ON vs IND contest, LIB/NAT preferences will favour ON. This is the also the most likely way for One Nation to win the seat.

It will be the first real electoral test for One Nation on how it will translate record poll results into actual votes in an election. Currently polling indicates One Nation can be competitive in a rural NSW seat like Farrer. I expect Barnaby Joyce to campaign in Farrer.

I think if Helen Dalton also joins in, it might cut the chance of One Nation given her very strong base is in rural parts of the seat which heavily duplicates One Nation base but the Former is already well liked incumbent and would be more palatable with more moderate voters.

I see that Hanson is courting Helen Dalton. I wonder if she would stand as a ON candidate? The link here seems to indicate she is considering it.
https://regionriverina.com.au/dalton-approached-by-one-nation-to-run-for-sussan-leys-federal-seat/119020/

You get the sense that she could win this seat, given that in 2019 she won the State seat of Murray (pretty well the western half of Farrer) with a FPP of 38.8% standing as a SFF member before she fell out with them. If the SFF was a palatable party in Murray then, perhaps ON is also now, perhaps more so? The Nats in 2019 got 35.2% with no Lib and ALP and ON each on 8.something%.

In 2023 Dalton won FPP 50.2% as an Independent against 26.3% for Nats, 8.4% ALP and no ON candidate. So maybe the narrative is she’s better off without any party attachment.

Murray is big, stretching from the MIA to the almost South Australia at Wentworth, so you would expect quite a variation in her strength, but in 2023 there was very little variability.

My sense that if she runs as an Independent she’d be a short-priced favourite, but weaker with ON, as many of the centrist/leftish voters (strongish in the Albury region) would preference anyone but ON.

As at mid-morning on Friday 27 February, Sussan Ley has formally resigned from Parliament. The Speaker will then have to set a date that does not clash with public holidays (Easter & Anzac Day) and NSW school holidays. Saturday 2 May looks clear.

This by-election will be a key electoral test for Angus Taylor to see if he could rebuild the Liberal brand and limit the loss of Liberal support to One Nation. A loss to the independent or One Nation would be a blow. A loss to the Nationals would be preferable for Taylor in the short term but would increase the Nationals’ sway in the Coalition.

It will also test One Nation’s ability to convert a recent polling surge and membership surge into actual votes. It is like a litmus test for future general elections (after the SA election in March 2026). I think there is pressure to perform to keep their new members happy and to gain credibility as a new third force.

One Nation has a shortlist of nominees. Unlike at previous general elections, I don’t expect the candidate to be a parachuted, no-name candidate. I read that their branch in Farrer is their second largest and so there will be a lot of ground game.

I said “It will be the first real electoral test for One Nation on how it will translate record poll results into actual votes in an election.” Not the first electoral test, but the first electoral test after the SA election in March. I should have said “”It will be the first real electoral test for One Nation after the SA election in March on how it will translate record poll results into actual votes at an election”.

I think the combined Coalition primary vote will drop below 40% regardless of whether Labor runs. It’s pretty significant because this has been a Liberal or Nationals seat since 1949 and was once held by a Deputy PM.

This could be a count that is reminiscent of Calwell in 2025 where the distribution of preferences don’t start until the last postal vote is received. It depends on the primary vote placings though and how distant 3rd place is.

If Labor runs – which I think they should – here’s where PV might land

GRN 4%
Misc Other 4%
Leave approx 92% split at least 5 ways. Agree with Votante LNP combined are<40%
Labor 15%
Milthorpe 20%
Liberal 22%
National 16%
ON 19%

Of Dalton runs as IND, take a few points off most, but mainly off Milthorpe and National. Quite possibly 6 candidates b/w 12-20% Let the preferences fall where they may!

Farrer by election now confirmed for 9 May