Farrer by-election, 2026

Over the weekend, One Nation has selected Narrandera businessman David Farley as its candidate for the Farrer by-election, while the Nationals have selected former military commander Brad Robertson to contest the by-election. No Liberal candidate yet.

With Farley aged 72 & Robertson aged 69 (positively a young national still) it looks like a battle for the ages as Milthorpe is aged 42. Is the electorate particularly aged by national standards?

The ON candidate is 69 and Brad Robertson is either a fair bit younger than 69 or well preserved. Hate to say it – being there or close to myself – that both are male, pale and and most importantly stale.
The Libs are being very quiet – what is going on there?

I don’t like the Liberals’ chances. They are on the backfoot. They’ll suffer a huge swing on primary votes and would be very lucky to scrape through.

Sussan Ley might have sympathisers who will swing away. Some voters may not have liked her leadership style at the time but in hindsight, felt sorry for her or felt she was mistreated by the Liberal Party and wasn’t given a fair chance. Some may have admired her in highsight for taking on a tough, uneviable job after a crushing election defeat.

I was going to compare her to the Malcolm Turnbull of 2018 but Turnbull was a more popular leader and had a massive personal vote in his electorate. There were probably way more sympathisers in Wentworth in 2018. Despite all that, there was a huge loss of Liberal votes and hence a huge swing at the Wentworth by-election.

@RogerRoughead
“Is the electorate particularly aged by national standards?”

I believe it’s mainly working-aged. Census data shows its median age close to the national median age. It is skewed by uni students, including on work placements (and are probably enrolled elsewhere), as well as backpackers and migrant workers.

The electorates with the highest median ages are generally coastal ones outside capital cities where there are large retirement communities.

@RogerRoughead, I checked last census’s data from 2021. The median age was 42 – higher than the national median which was 38. If we subtract the non-citizens and out-of-division enrolled voters (e.g. uni students, seasonal workers), the median age would go up.

A Farrer by-election polling conducted by UComms for The Australia Institute recorded primary votes of One Nation 28.7%, Milthorpe 23.3%, Liberal 19.1%, Labor 9.0% (probably won’t run), National 5.2%, Greens 3.9%, others 2.2%, undecided 8.6%. Undecided voters were then asked whether they leaned towards Liberal, Milthorpe, Greens, One Nation or the Nationals. Labor voters were also asked whether they would vote for Liberal, Milthorpe, Greens, One Nation, the Nationals, another party or candidate or undecided if Labor wouldn’t run a candidate. After reallocating Labor voters and undecided voters, I estimate the primaries to be One Nation 31.9%, Milthorpe 29.9%, Liberal 22.0%, National 7.7%, Green 5.8%, Others 2.7% (an underestimate as other was excluded from the undecided voter follow-up).

https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/exclusive-farrer-poll-one-nation-ahead-but-faces-preference-challenge-huge-support-for-gas-tax/

Considering the fact that national polls showing One Nation polling in the high 20s while the Coalition polling in the low 20s or high teens, and that One Nation vote is higher in rural areas and that Labor won’t run, One Nation will almost certainly make the final two. The question will be whether One Nation’s main opponent will be the Liberal Party or Milthorpe. In this sample, Milthorpe’s primary vote is higher than the Liberal and National Party combined, therefore both the Liberal and National parties will be excluded and the 2CP pairing will be One Nation vs Milthorpe, and One Nation will win on Liberal and National Party preferences.

Psephologist Kevin Bonham has said that Milthorpe’s vote may be significantly overestimated in this poll because she was named and her opponents were not. In the actual by-election, if the combined Liberal and National Party primary vote is considerably higher than that of Milthorpe’s primary vote, it’s possible that the Liberal Party can pass Milthorpe at the 3CP stage on National preferences. In this case the 2CP pairing will become One Nation vs Liberal, and the Liberal Party can win on the preferences of Milthorpe, Greens and Nationals voters. This is the most likely way for the Liberal Party to win the seat.

Milthorpe needs a primary vote above 40% to win a contest against One Nation if One Nation is polling around 30%, which is the level recorded in this poll and in national polls, assuming 70% of Liberal and National preferences flowing to One Nation. In this sense Milthorpe’s chances are low unless she can appeal to One Nation voters.

I doubt the coalition preference flows would be 70% to ON if Milthorpe was the opponent personally, more like 55/45 depending on their HTVC

Who would they rather try and take the seat off in 2028? Milthorpe might be able to assert herself as a reliable local IND whereas ON could fall apart before then

Apparently two candidates for Lib preselection.

Lachlan McIntyre who was a staffer for Sussan Ley and Raissa Butkowski who is an Albury City Council councillor.

A possibility is that the Lib/Nat preference flow rate to ONP ends up lower than usual because hard right Coalition voters have left the party and moved over to ONP. The remaining Coalition voters would be more moderate. Also, since Liberals and Nationals are the underdogs, their voters would feel that their preferences now matter.

Good point, @Votante.

I’m inclined to think the Liberals and Nationals would be best to recommend 2nd-preference to each other, then non-toxic minor-right parties, then either One Nation (for the Nationals) or Milthorpe (for the Liberals).

As far as the most likely top-four candidates are concerned, this would mean the Liberals’ HTV would rank Liberal-National-Milthorpe-One Nation, and the Nationals’ HTV would rank National-Liberal-One Nation-Milthorpe.

Under that scenario, the total Liberal and National pool of “1 Liberal 2 National” and “1 National 2 Liberal” votes would be maximised, by each party slightly offending different voter cohorts.

Labor will not be fielding a candidate according to The Border Mail, the local newspaper.

Regarding HTV and preferences, the Liberals might be in some kind of dilemma. I believe that Liberal voters are more likely to follow HTV card orders. There’s some risk with issuing an open ticket with a 1 only. It would also upset the Nationals who the Liberals normally put as 2nd on their HTV cards when both parties are running.

There would be no way in the world that the Libs and Nats would not issue a 1-2 card. There would seem to be a danger that issuing a 1 – 2 card and then leave open might be more confusing than a 1 then open card. In a regional area preferencing One Nation before Milthorpe does not have same political dangers as metro areas. One of the earlier posters indicated that a ON win might be better in the long term as they might go down before 2028. There is a lot of merit in that argument.

The Libs have selected Albury City Councillor – Raissa Butkowski. On paper a good move – being both female and from Albury.

@Votante: “Hard right Coalition voters have left the party and moved over to ONP. The remaining Coalition voters would be more moderate.”: Many moderate Coalition voters would have also switched to vote for independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, therefore we can’t definitively say that remaining Coalition voters will be more moderate. Not voting 1 One Nation does not make you less likely to preference One Nation highly. There are many hard right Coalition voters who won’t vote One Nation but are happy to preference the party highly.

@Maxim: The Coalition recommended preferences to One Nation ahead of teal-style independents in all regional seats in the 2025 federal election, including in Farrer, and I expect them to do so again in the Farrer by-election. “I doubt the coalition preference flows would be 70% to ON if Milthorpe was the opponent personally, more like 55/45 depending on their HTVC”. 55% is the level of the rate at which One Nation preferences flowed to the Coalition in some Coalition vs independent contests, including in Farrer where One Nation preferences flowed only 52.84% to the Liberal Party ahead of Milthorpe in the 2025 federal election. However, the rate of Coalition preference flows to independent ahead of One Nation should be much higher because Coalition voters have higher preferencing discipline and are more likely to follow how-to-vote cards than One Nation voters. What’s more, the anti-major party sentiment among many One Nation voters made many One Nation voters defy HTV vards and rank independents ahead of major parties including the Coalition, which significantly weakened the One Nation preference flow to the Coalition in Coalition vs independent contests compared to what Coalition preference flow to One Nation would be in One Nation vs independent contests. 70% preference flow from the Coalition overall to One Nation ahead of Milthorpe is entirely achievable.

@Andrew from 3040: I don’t think the Liberal Party will recommend preferences to Milthorpe ahead of One Nation while the Nationals do the opposite. Doing so will cause division and backlash within the Liberal party and make more Liberal voters and even members switch to One Nation. It will reinforce One Nation’s message that “In Farrer, a vote for the Liberals or Nationals risks opening the door to a radical left Teal candidate”, driving even more Coalition voters into voting One Nation. To make matters worse, having opposite preferencing policy in regards to One Nation will worsen the ructions between the two Coalition parties, driving more Nationals voters to preference One Nation ahead of the Liberals because they think the Nationals are more idealogically close to One Nation than to the Liberals, increasing the chances of the Liberal Party being excluded and a One Nation victory.

The Coalition recommended preferences to One Nation ahead of teal-style independents in all regional seats in the 2025 federal election, including in Farrer. In Forrest, where teal-style independent Sue Chapman ran against both Liberal and National parties, both parties listed each other second on their how-to-vote cards, followed by One Nation in the third place. I expect both the Liberal and National parties to do the same thing at the Farrer by-election. What’s more, as @Redistributed has said, a One Nation victory might be better for the Coalition in the long term than an independent victory because it’s much easier for the Coalition to win back a seat from One Nation than from an independent. Given One Nation’s history of organisational dysfunction and the fact that two-thirds of One Nation’s elected members have defected after election, an elected One Nation MP for Farrer can quit the party or be disendorsed by the party before the next election, or the entire party could fall apart, providing a perfect opportunity for the Coalition to win it back. By contrast, if independent Michelle Milthorpe wins and establishes a solid personal vote, it will be very hard for the Coalition to defeat her at the polls. For this reason @votante, if Liberals and Nationals’ voters feel that their preferences now matter, they should preference One Nation ahead of Milthorpe.

With regards to the UComms poll for Farrer, the One Nation vote inferred from the poll will be significantly overestimated because it significantly underestimated votes for other right-wing minor parties. In 2025, four right-wing minor parties other than One Nation contested Farrer, which were SFF (Shooters, Fishers, Farmers), Trumpet of Patriots, Family First and Gerard Rennick People First, and they polled a total of 10%. Only two of them, Family First and Gerard Rennick People First, have so far nominated for the Farrer by-election. I expect right-wing minor parties will drag down the One Nation primary vote by around 5-7% from the level suggested by this poll to around 25% – 27%, which means Milthorpe could poll highest on primary votes in an actual election. If the primary votes are something like Milthorpe 29.9%, One Nation 25.9%, Liberal 22.0%, National 7.7%, Green 5.8%, Others 8.7%, One Nation will be at risk of being excluded if there is significant preference leakage from other right-wing minor parties while a high percentage of Nationals voters preference the Liberals ahead of One Nation and Milthorpe.

Is there any suggestion that Australia Institute, uComms, Morgan or anyone else will poll Farrer in the wake of the SA state election result, to see whether the One Nation boost also applies on the upstream “right bank” of the Murray?

@Joseph.
I mentioned earlier there’s a possibility that there are disgruntled moderate and hard right Coalition voters, or Coalition voters wanting to protest, who will swing away for totally different reasons.

A possibility is that there are some loyal Coalition voters who fear One Nation eating up their parties and so there’s an incentive to preference Milthorpe over One Nation.

At the 2025 federal elections, Coalition HTV cards generally preferenced One Nation ahead of Labor, even number 2 in many cases. I have no doubt that if the Liberals and Nationals do issue HTV cards, they’d put One Nation ahead of Milthorpe.