Mapping the major party swing

On Monday I wrote about the continuing trend of a declining vote for the major parties, which has been a major topic of conversation since Saturday's election.In this post I'm going to look at where the swing has taken place: the swing against each...

What happened with the Chinese-Australian vote in the big cities?

One of the trends I've started hearing about over the last day or two, thanks to the very smart commenters on this blog, is that booth swings in a bunch of suburban seats in Sydney and Melbourne were particularly strong in the areas with...

Major party vote at all time low

Prior to the election I wrote about the long-term downward trend in support for the major parties, and how polling suggested that this trend would continue in 2022. Not only has it continued, but it has accelerated.So I thought I'd show how that vote...

Podcast #75: A remarkable election

Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the results of yesterday's federal election.This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast...

Next morning swings and roundabouts

Wow! Okay so where are we at on Sunday morning?With my work in the Guardian we have called 132 seats. There's a handful I haven't called (such as Parramatta and Werriwa) that can probably be called once the pre-poll vote comes in.Decided Leading TotalLabor 70 9 79Coalition 51 5 56Crossbench 11 5 16Total 132 19 151When I went...

Australia 2022, election night live

12:01 - Well it turns out the website couldn't handle the traffic tonight! Hopefully most of you found me at the Guardian. I'll be back in the morning with a lot of analysis.7:57 - There's a lot going on, but some key points right...

An expanding crossbench and the chances of a hung parliament

I hadn't been planning to write a substantive blog post for election day - I usually just post an open thread for discussion during the day. But yesterday I had an idea for one more bit of analysis that seems relevant to consider before...

Results prediction open thread

Today's blog post will be short. I'm creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go.I'll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I...

Early voting update

I thought it was about time to do another update of the early voting statistics.As of the end of Wednesday, 3.87 million people had cast a pre-poll vote. This compares to 3.52 million as of the same point in 2019, and a cumulative total...

Take a look at the Senate

As is always the case, the election campaign has been very much focused on the House of Representatives. But there are some interesting potential outcomes in the Senate.In short, I think the Coalition is in danger of losing a senate seat in at least...