Queensland state redistribution drafts published – live
10:54 - I'm going to finish this liveblog now. Possibly to be revisited a bit more succinctly in coming days.
10:46 - Here are my estimates of primary votes.
Seat
ALP prim
LIB prim
GRN prim
ON prim
IND prim
Algester
34.1
46.8
9.9
3.8
5.4
Annerley
28.2
40.6
26.3
3.7
1.2
Aspley
42.3
40.0
11.4
4.3
2.0
Barron River
40.7
32.5
9.6
9.7
7.6
Beaudesert
51.3
21.2
9.3
14.7
3.5
Beenleigh
36.0
39.2
7.0
7.8
10.0
Brisbane Central
34.7
35.6
25.4
3.3
1.1
Broadwater
64.0
21.5
4.9
6.9
2.7
Buderim
48.5
27.1
12.0
6.9
5.5
Bulimba
35.8
42.7
16.4
3.1
1.9
Bundaberg
38.4
41.5
3.4
7.7
9.1
Burdekin
49.4
20.9
3.1
6.6
20.0
Burleigh
48.6
25.4
8.9
4.6
12.6
Burnett
49.5
28.0
3.4
11.9
7.2
Caboolture
37.9
37.1
6.1
10.5
8.4
Cairns
32.8
35.0
10.0
15.0
7.2
Callide
56.7
16.8
3.8
16.5
6.3
Caloundra
43.6
37.0
8.4
5.4
5.5
Capalaba
45.2
36.2
11.4
7.2
0.0
Carindale
52.5
31.4
10.4
3.1
2.6
Clayfield
47.8
29.0
17.4
3.2
2.6
Cleveland
54.1
29.5
9.3
5.6
1.6
Condamine
60.5
17.6
5.2
11.0
5.7
Cook
32.0
33.5
8.2
7.3
18.9
Coolum
48.7
26.7
9.8
8.6
6.2
Cooper
34.7
36.4
25.7
2.2
1.0
Currumbin
47.9
23.9
9.5
5.3
13.3
Deception Bay
35.4
45.8
7.3
7.3
4.2
Eight Mile Plains
36.3
42.6
15.3
4.4
1.4
Everton
50.4
33.2
11.5
4.8
0.3
Ferny Grove
35.7
40.0
19.6
4.6
0.0
Flinders
24.8
14.3
4.5
6.8
49.6
Gaven
42.5
36.4
6.5
8.2
6.4
Gladstone
27.5
43.3
5.5
14.6
9.2
Glass House
42.2
25.7
12.7
9.6
9.8
Greenbank
32.2
45.6
7.3
8.6
6.3
Greenslopes
34.5
35.3
26.3
2.7
1.2
Gregory
54.1
24.2
2.9
13.3
5.4
Gympie
46.9
23.7
7.7
21.7
0.0
Hervey Bay
43.1
32.3
4.0
13.4
7.2
Hinchinbrook
26.6
14.3
4.3
5.4
49.4
Inala
28.4
47.3
12.2
4.3
7.8
Indooroopilly
37.3
25.5
34.1
3.1
0.0
Ipswich
27.8
42.5
10.6
8.2
10.9
Ipswich West
33.5
38.0
7.6
9.7
11.2
Kawana
55.6
28.4
9.5
6.6
0.0
Keppel
37.2
28.1
4.6
25.8
4.3
Kurwongbah
33.3
43.1
8.6
7.7
7.2
Lockyer
52.7
19.9
6.2
15.8
5.4
Logan
36.2
37.7
6.6
10.3
9.1
Lytton
37.7
40.2
11.3
5.5
5.3
Mackay
45.2
30.1
5.0
11.4
8.3
Mansfield
37.7
43.2
12.2
4.6
2.4
Maroochydore
52.7
28.0
9.8
6.4
3.0
Marsden
24.8
49.3
10.8
8.0
7.0
Maryborough
37.1
38.3
4.0
14.6
6.0
Mermaid Beach
52.7
25.5
10.6
7.0
4.2
Mirani
37.2
22.5
3.0
12.0
25.2
Moggill
48.1
27.1
18.5
5.1
1.2
Morayfield
30.9
44.1
6.8
11.3
6.9
Mount Ommaney
40.1
42.5
12.7
3.2
1.4
Mudgeeraba
48.5
28.7
8.2
10.7
4.0
Mulgrave
25.4
20.9
4.9
8.3
40.5
Mundingburra
43.3
30.3
8.1
4.7
13.6
Murrumba
30.1
48.5
6.4
4.3
10.8
Nambour
37.3
28.4
10.8
9.7
13.8
Nanango
54.0
18.1
3.6
12.2
12.1
Noosa
36.0
9.3
5.7
4.7
44.4
Nudgee
32.4
48.1
13.3
3.4
2.7
Oxenford
47.5
27.1
7.3
9.7
8.3
Pimpama
45.3
27.5
6.3
10.3
10.6
Pine Rivers
41.3
39.4
9.7
6.8
2.9
Pumicestone
43.0
40.4
4.1
7.1
5.4
Redbank
25.5
44.4
10.4
8.1
11.5
Redcliffe
44.4
36.0
9.1
7.3
3.1
Redlands
41.8
38.9
6.7
5.6
6.9
Rockhampton
28.0
31.5
4.1
13.6
22.8
Sandgate
32.9
46.2
11.8
4.1
5.0
South...
Nightcliff by-election results live
10:14 - So is it over? I suspect it is, but I won't call the result tonight.
There are 77 declaration vote envelopes, and there could be as many as 262 potential postal votes, although undoubtedly some of those postal votes will not be returned.
Assuming...
Nominations close in South Australia
Nominations were declared yesterday afternoon for South Australia's 47 House of Assembly seats as well as the Legislative Council contest.
There was a very large increase in candidates compared to the last election, and well in excess of the previous record.
388 candidates have nominated for...
Tasmanian redistribution release – live
1:55 - I'm going to actually finish this liveblog here, with a short video running through the changes.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/dIrE0I8HLxk
1:24 - What I hope will be my final bit of analysis today is a comparison of the Senate vote per electorate. With so many independents running at...
South Australia – One Nation ahead of Liberals in candidate announcements
Nominations will be announced next Monday for the upcoming South Australian state election.
As we get closer to that deadline, I've been updating my list of candidates in my election guide.
It now contains 208 candidates. This is not the final list. There are usually a bunch...
14 is not enough
According to reporting in the Sydney Morning Herald today, and from other conversations with journalists, it sounds like the federal Labor government is on the verge of announcing a plan to expand the size of the parliament prior to the 2028 federal election.
Such a decision...
Podcast #163 – Home ownership, renting and voting
How does owning your home or renting impact on how you vote? For today's podcast, Ben was joined by Shaun Ratcliff and Josh Goddard to discuss what we know about how home ownership (or asset ownership more broadly) influences voting trends. We discuss Josh's...
Farrer by-election coming soon
Sussan Ley has announced that she will be retiring from politics following her loss of the Liberal leadership this morning.
That means there will be a by-election for her seat of Farrer. I have converted my federal election guide into a by-election guide which you...
Podcast #162 – Thailand swings to the right
In last Sunday's Thai general election, voters swung strongly to current prime minister Anutin's Bhumjaithai Party, or BJT. In this podcast, Ben discusses Thai politics and the results of the Thai election with Erin Cook of the Dari Mulut ke Mulut newsletter.
Two more by-elections coming up
Two different politicians announced their retirements today due to health reasons, causing two by-elections that are worth watching.
Kat McNamara won the Northern Territory seat of Nightcliff at the 2024 election, and was the first Greens MP elected in the Territory. McNamara came from third...