New official seat margins published in Victoria

The Victorian Electoral Commission has recently published a report laying out their estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins in every electorate for the upcoming Victorian state election, after taking account of the redistribution.I've previously published my own estimates, but I'm planning to substitute the VEC's...

Guide for Fannie Bay by-election posted

There will be a by-election later this month in the Northern Territory electorate of Fannie Bay, covering parts of the northern suburbs of Darwin. The seat was held by former chief minister Michael Gunner, who resigned last month after stepping down from the leadership...

New freebies from the Victorian guide

We're about four months out from the Victorian state election, and I've just finished a quick update to my list of candidates for that election, as included in my election guide.The list now includes 139 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, which includes 68 incumbent...

What voters made up Labor’s election-winning coalition?

As of yesterday, the results of the 2022 federal election have been finalised and move to the results archive. One of the last pieces of data to be compiled is a breakdown of two-party-preferred preference flows for each party.The two-party-preferred vote, by definition, splits...

NSW guide launched

While the federal election is now over, the two biggest state elections in Australia are just around the corner: Victoria in November, and New South Wales in March 2023.I released my Victorian election guide at the start of the year, but I have now...

How often do MPs in PNG win re-election?

Papua New Guinea's electoral system on the surface looks quite similar to the system we have in Australia, with preferential voting and single-member electorates. But the dynamics of the party system and how voters use the system mean that the voting system works very...

Winning candidate vote shares in Papua New Guinea

In Friday's blog post, I looked at the number of candidates running per seat in Papua New Guinea elections. Specifically how the number of candidates is very high, with over 30 candidates on average running in each seat at this election, and at the...

Ballots are big, but not getting bigger, in PNG

Voting has now commenced in Papua New Guinea's national election, with voitng due to conclude by July 22. Over the next week I'm going to explore some interesting datapoints that can help you understand the PNG electoral system.Papua New Guinea's parliament consists of single...

New map – PNG electoral boundaries

Papua New Guinea goes to the polls next month to elect the national parliament, and for the first time since 1977 there has been a redistribution of electoral boundaries. Seven existing electorates have been split in half to create seven new seats. Another six...

Podcast #77: PNG election preview

Ben is joined by Maholopa Laveil from the University of Papua New Guinea to discuss the upcoming Papua New Guinea national election, with voting scheduled for most of July. We discuss PNG constitutional structures, election procedures, how the parties work and political geography.This podcast...