Brisbane City – next day wrap-up

For this post, I'm not going to dwell too much on individual races and where they are up to, but instead look at broader trends. I'll do another post today or tomorrow about the close races and what we're waiting to see. There were quite...

Brisbane City election night live

I'm going to wrap up shortly - it seems like the vote count has dried up. I'm sure we'll have more data tomorrow that can resolve more of the seats. At the moment it looks likely that the Greens will gain some wards, but whether...

Podcast #115: A tour of Tasmania’s electorates

Ben was joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the Tasmanian state election. We run through the five state electorates one by one, and discuss what we'll be watching for on election night. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on...

Mapping intra-party booth results in Tasmania

In yesterday's post I explored some of the intra-party dynamics you get under Hare-Clark when multiple candidates from the same party are competing. In this post I wanted to map out the relative strength of different candidates from within a single party across an electorate. There's...

How often do Tasmanian MPs lose their seats?

One of the almost unique features of Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system is the potential for voters to choose individual candidates over others in the same party, and on occasion achieve the outcome of an individual MP losing their seat to a fellow member of...

Brisbane City – early voting update

The trend of voters choosing to cast their votes has been progressing for a long time, but there was a major shift in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic moved a lot more voters away from casting their votes on election day. The 2020 Queensland council...

The 35-seat Tasmanian status quo

Tasmania's lower house will be expanding in size from 25 to 35 at the upcoming election. Usually when we analyse election results, a key tool is to compare the results to the last election. Swings, or changes in seat count. But with a big increase...

Unpicking Labor’s multi-party scare

Yesterday I was informed of a website from Tasmanian Labor that has been used in text messages to Tasmanian voters. I don't normally comment on campaign rhetoric like this, but in this case the website name-drops me a number of times, and selectively quotes from...

Podcast #114: Queensland council elections preview

Ben is joined by Alexis Pink from community radio station 4ZZZ and Andrew Messenger from the Guardian Australia to discuss the upcoming council elections across Queensland and the two state by-elections to be held on the same day. We discuss the Brisbane City Council campaign...

The two Tasmanias

Tasmanian state elections often play out across a north-south divide, with the two southern electorates playing out differently than the northern remainder of the state. In this post I thought I would try and map out some of these dynamics over the last 35 years...