The 1999 example
The last constitutional referendums in this country were held in 1999, on adding a preamble to the constitution and changing Australia to be a republic. The latter referendum may have some insights about what we could expect on Saturday, so I thought I would...
Podcast #104: New Zealand election preview
Ben is joined by James Mulrennan from The Overhang. We preview next weekend's New Zealand national election, touching on the electoral system, the state of the parties and the polls, and the potential shape of the next government.
I have prepared an interactive map showing...
Referendums – how much did support vary geographically?
For today's post, I wanted to explore how much referendum results vary geographically - how much variety there is by seat and by state.
There's been quite a bit of variety in how tightly-clustered the states have been over time, although it's very clear that...
Referendum history – the impact of the party in government, and opposition
One of the key factors to consider when looking at the history of Australia's constitutional referendums is which government submitted the redistribution proposal. Labor and their Coalition opponents (and their predecessors) have held differing attitudes to the constitution, all the way back to the...
Yes and No coalitions in past referendums
Referendum results are made up of building blocks of states - four states are required to pass a referendum. While a successful referendum also requires a majority nationwide, that has never been the deciding factor. It's always been about the four states.
In this post...
The double majority and the tipping point state
One of the most interesting elements of a constitutional referendum in Australia is that there are two requirements for the referendum to be carried: it needs a majority of votes nationally, but it also needs a majority in a majority of states.
Since there have...
Referendums – how they have changed through the decades
Over the next two weeks I'll be writing a few blog posts based on the referendum results data in my data repository - looking at the history of referendums throughout the 20th century.
The Voice referendum will be the first constitutional referendum held since 1999...
NSW federal redistribution – official numbers published
Federal redistributions have recently commenced in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.
The AEC yesterday published the enrolment data to be used to draw New South Wales federal electorates.
There are two sets of data - enrolment data as of August 2023, and projected enrolments...
Mulgrave by-election guide posted
Victorian premier Daniel Andrews will be stepping down today as premier and as Member for Mulgrave, a seat he has held since 2002.
This means a by-election will be held for that seat soon, likely before the end of the year.
My guide to Mulgrave is...