Australia 2025 – Wrap-up of the night
Good morning, I have been writing this blog post after getting home to wrap my own head around the scale of the count. I expect I will have some issues with the website's accessibility today, so some of this may also be posted over...
Election night open thread
Polls have just closed on the east coast.
You can discuss the election results here tonight.
I won't be liveblogging tonight - I'll be helping with the ABC's election coverage. But I'll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.
I suspect the website...
Election day open thread
Polls have just opened on the east coast in today's federal election.
I won't be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.
I'll put up another open thread at 6pm. I won't be liveblogging tonight - I'll be helping with the ABC's election coverage....
Federal election prediction thread
I don't have another idea for today's blog post, so why don't we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final predictions.
How wide is the hung parliament zone?
Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in...
Podcast #147: What might a hung parliament look like?
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC's Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss how a hung parliament might play out and the experience of riding Peter Dutton's campaign bus. For our seat of...
How results play out across election night
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night and how the primary vote for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens shifts over the course of the night.
First up,...
How do results vary between election day and early voting?
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two halves - one half voting before election day, through pre-poll voting, postal voting and remote booths, and the other half...
Early voting is holding at very high levels
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. I most recently summarised these statistics at a federal level in this blog post.
For this blog post I'm...
How will the states swing?
Australia's states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For this reason, I usually choose to measure 2PP results against the state result, rather than the national result.
At the 2010...