Early Tasmanian election?

Speculation is rife that the Tasmanian premier, Peter Gutwein, will call an early election as early as today for Saturday, May 1. This is about a year before the election needs to be held, and ten months before the four-year anniversary of the last...

Victorian and WA federal redistributions live

6:13pm - Okay I am now signing off.As previously discussed, every seat has stayed in the hands of the party that already held it. The Liberal seat of Stirling has been abolished and the Labor seat of Hawke has been created with a 10.2%...

WA 2021 – results update

We're now six days past the Western Australian state election, and the picture has become clearer in both houses. I thought I'd run through the state of play as of Thursday evening.In the Legislative Assembly, just one seat is still in play: Churchlands in...

WA 2021 – the state of the upper house (part two)

As a follow-up to yesterday's post, I've gone through the last two regions.Labor has won four seats in South Metropolitan (along with one Liberal) and their preferences are pushing the Greens over the top for the fifth seat, but only by a slim margin...

Podcast #50: The day after the WA election

Ben is joined by William Bowe of the Poll Bludger to discuss Labor's massive landslide victory in yesterday's Western Australian state election, including running through each of the six upper house contests.This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon. If you...

WA 2021 – the state of the upper house (part one)

In this post I run through the current state of the estimated preference distributions for four of the six upper house regions. I've run out of time to analyse the last two (South Metropolitan and South West) before my podcast recording timeslot so I...

WA 2021 – the lower house result

The result in the lower house in yesterday's Western Australian state election was overwhelming and shows how the single-member voting system can produce massive lopsided majorities when a party wins big.Based on the final results at the end of last night, Labor polled over...

WA 2021 – election night

4:38am - That's it for this liveblog. I'll be back later today with more considered and extensive analysis. Thanks for following along.4:36am - About one third of the vote has been counted for the upper house so far. I assume this is the vote cast...

WA 2021 – election day

It's now 8am in Western Australia, and polls have just opened for election day. We're expecting a record low proportion of Western Australian voters casting their vote on election day, thanks to record numbers of pre-poll and postal votes.As of the end of Thursday,...

WA 2021 – what’s your guess?

Election day is tomorrow in Western Australia.We haven't had any more proper polling since the Newspoll three weeks ago which gave Labor 68% of the two-party-preferred vote. Overall, we haven't had much polling for this election. It's quite likely that 68% poll is an...