Callide by-election guide posted

It's a close-run thing, but I've now published a guide to the Callide state by-election to be held this Saturday, 18 June, in Queensland. I won't be doing live results on Saturday night, but there has been a lively conversation on the Callide 2020...

Checking out variations between the House and the Senate

There's a lot to be learned about the trends in this election by looking at how the largest party groupings performed in the two Houses. While the major parties generally polled a lower vote in the Senate than in the House, that pattern varies...

What sort of swing could produce a hung parliament?

On election day I published a blog post looking at how the crossbench had been expanding over time and how that had largely eliminated the risk of a "wrong winner" outcome, where the party losing the two-party-preferred count wins a majority.I realised the other...

Changing voting patterns slow down declaration of seats

Most people who read this website would have a reasonably good sense of the formal process of counting ballots: the counting of a primary vote, a two-candidate-preferred count, and the full distribution of preferences, where each candidate is excluded one-at-a-time until there are only...

Podcast #76: Federal election wrap-up

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to wrap up the 2022 federal election. We discuss the undecided Senate races, the close House races, and the paths to victory for the Coalition and chances for future hung parliaments.This podcast is supported...

Is the Coalition one party, two parties or four parties?

There's been a lot of chatter online in the last few days challenging calculations about the low primary vote for the newly-elected Labor government, not by disputing that figure, but by arguing that it is higher than the vote for the Liberal Party. It's...

How might an election have played out under PR?

On Wednesday I published a blog post arguing that the House of Representatives electoral system needs to change to proportional representation, but I stayed away from any discussion of specific models. Since then, there's been a lot of discussion of various models, so I...

Time to talk about PR

There's been a lot of chatter about the low primary vote for the major parties, and Labor in particular polling their lowest primary vote in many decades.There are plenty of excuses to explain why the vote is so low, such as strategic voting for...

Defining and mapping the teal vote

There has been a lot of talk about the "teal vote" at this last election, identifying a movement of independents almost like a party, and trying to gauge levels of support for their agenda.In a sense this is doomed to failure. This group shares...

The Coalition’s potential paths back to power

Since the election, there have been numerous arguments from right-wing Liberal Party figures that the party should give up on winning back the inner city seats they have lost, and instead look elsewhere to rebuild their numbers.Former prime minister Tony Abbott published an op-ed...