QLD 2020 – candidate update

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I launched my guide for the Queensland state election on Tuesday, and as part of that guide I have been compiling a list of candidates running in the election.

Over three hundred candidates have been identified so far, although the list shrunk slightly this week when three Palaszczuk government ministers announced their retirement.

Coralee O’Rourke, who holds the Townsville-area seat of Mundingburra, announced her retirement earlier in the week, and then yesterday Anthony Lynham and Kate Jones announced their retirements from their seats of Stafford and Cooper.

My list currently includes 309 candidates.

View the list here.

This includes 81 LNP candidates, 74 Labor candidates, 43 Greens and 38 One Nation candidates. Other parties running include Informed Medical Options (18), Legalise Cannabis (13), United Australia (13), Katter’s Australian Party (12), Animal Justice (6) and North Queensland First (5).

A total of 453 candidates nominated in 2017, so this is roughly on track when you consider the number of candidates likely to announce over the next month. I’d expect another hundred or so candidates from the four big parties.

I have recorded the gender of each candidate and will return to that topic in the future. At the moment 188 men and 121 women have been identified as candidates. 43% of Labor candidates are women, compared to 28% of LNP candidates. This is a slight improvement for Labor and about the same for the LNP, compared to the final candidate list in 2017.

At the moment there are on average 3.3 candidates running per seat. Seven candidates are running in Townsville and Whitsunday.

There are also four seats with just one candidate. The incumbent MP is the only candidate so far in Callide, Logan and Woodridge, while in Stafford there is only an LNP candidate following Dr Lynham’s retirement yesterday. Of course, all of these races should end up being healthy contests between at least three candidates.

I will continue to update this candidate list up until the close of nominations. I will regularly update candidate lists on individual electorate profiles as new candidates emerge but it won’t be the highest priority for me as I work on some other projects. If you find a candidate that hasn’t been listed you can contact me or post as a comment on their seat. Rest assured I will take note of the candidate announcements in the comments and add them to the public list and the seat guides as time allows.

Podcast #42: all about redistributions

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Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger and new guest Michael Maley, formerly of the Australian Electoral Commission, to talk all about redistributions: how they work now, how they used to work and how they have changed over time.

This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Victorian councils update – some campaigning allowed

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The Victorian government today announced some rule changes from the end of this weekend which will allow some local government election campaigning which doesn’t pose a risk of spreading disease.

These changes do make it easier for campaigns to get a message out, but I still don’t think it justifies the decision to proceed with the local government elections on the original schedule.

I blogged about this issue yesterday morning, but since then the government has announced that from the end of Sunday night it will become legal to letterbox leaflets, and to deliver posters to be put up by supporters.

Unveiling the Queensland 2020 election guide

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The Queensland state election will be held on October 31, and I have now completed my guide to this election.

This guide features profiles of all 93 electorates. Each profile includes the history of that seat, a description of its geography, and maps and tables showing the results of the 2017 election.

View the guide here.

Each guide also includes a candidate list, which will be an ongoing task to keep updated until the close of nominations.

Each guide includes a comment section, where you can discuss the progress of the contest in that electorate. Some seats already have numerous comments since the soft launch of the guide last week.

This has been a big project. I have been working on this guide on and off in between other projects since February. I hope you’ll find it useful.

If you do find this to be a useful tool in understanding this election, please consider signing up as a regular donor via Patreon. Patreon donors ensure that I can dedicate time to working on projects like this. I’m already working on my guide to the ACT election and thinking ahead to the Western Australian state election in March and the NSW local government elections next year.

That’s it for now, although I will be posting regularly about this state election, and have plans for a number of podcasts focused on this election.

How do you run for election under stage 4 lockdown?

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Victorians will soon be voting in local council elections amidst an extended lockdown. While the number of new Covid-19 cases has been dropping, Melburnians will still face a stage 4 lockdown for six more weeks.

Victorian council elections are conducted entirely by post, which will make it easier for people to cast their votes, but the lockdown will make it much harder for candidates to campaign, and give an advantage to those candidates with more money.

In these circumstances it’s hard to see these elections being free and fair, and really makes me wonder why the Victorian government did not postpone the elections.

NT 2020 – late counting update

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Over a week after the Northern Territory election, there are still four seats where the count is extremely close. I thought I might run through these races quickly.

These four seats are Araluen, Barkly, Blain and Namatjira.

Labor has won thirteen seats (including Arnhem and Fong Lim), the CLP has won six (including Braitling, Brennan, Daly and Katherine), and two have been won by independents.

Declaration votes were counted yesterday, and recounts are due to be held in all of these remaining undecided seats today.

South Australian redistribution – draft map completed

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It’s taken me a bit longer than I originally planned, but I’ve now created a digital map file for the South Australian state redistribution, for the election due in March 2022. This is a draft – the final map is due towards the end of the year.

At some point I plan to calculate my own redistribution margins but for now you can refer to the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission’s calculations in their report. I summarised the changes in a post two weeks ago.

This following map shows the new boundaries in green and the old boundaries in red.

Eden-Monaro preference flows released

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The Australian Electoral Commission released the final data from the Eden-Monaro by-election earlier this week. This data breaks down the two-party-preferred preference flows between Labor and Liberal based on the primary vote of the voter. This data allows us to look at how voters for various minor parties and independents marked their preferences.

This data is not usually published for state elections, forcing us to rely on the distribution of preferences, which doesn’t distinguish between primary votes for a candidate and votes they have picked up along the way. The AEC in recent years has even begun publishing these statistics at the level of the polling place.

Antony Green and Kevin Bonham have both published posts analysing the preference flows at the top level, but I thought it’d be interesting to look at how the flows for the three biggest minor parties varied across the electorate.

NT 2020 – election day decline by the numbers

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We expected election day to be a smaller factor in the Northern Territory election, and now we have the data to back it up.

Most, if not all, votes from election day have now been counted, along with most pre-poll votes. We are still waiting for straggling postal votes to be reported, but most seats have counted most of the postal votes which had arrived by last Friday (although weirdly no postal votes have been counted for Mulka).

This means we have some sense of how the turnout has compared to 2016 and 2012 overall, and in the vote categories.

At the moment the turnout sits at 69.9% of enrolment. This compares to 74% in 2016 and 76.9% in 2012. It seems unlikely that turnout will reach 74% – this would require almost 5800 votes to be admitted to the count.

At the moment, we appear to have most results for ordinary, absent and pre-poll votes although it’s possible some votes are missing. The results are made a bit messy as there were no “ordinary” votes on the day in four remote seats (Arafura, Barkly, Gwoja and Mulka) even though some of the mobile votes may have been cast on election day. For our purposes I am treating mobile votes as “cast before the day” nonetheless.

10,242 postal votes were issued. The NTEC published data the day before the election about how many votes were ‘admitted’, which in most seats is a slightly larger number than the number of postals counted so far. 3,816 postal votes have been counted so far, compared to 3,953 ‘admitted’ by the day before the election.

No postal votes have been counted in Mulka, and less than 80% of those admitted in Arafura, Arnhem and Barkly. 85% of those admitted have been counted in Katherine. Over 95% of those admitted have been counted in every other seat.

So I expect some more postal votes are sitting around to be counted, and more will arrive over the coming week or so, but it won’t be that many. Certainly we won’t get another 6000-odd postals, which we’d need to exceed the 2016 turnout.

Still, despite the numbers being incomplete, we can look at the total vote as a proportion of enrolment and see how big the shift has been over the last eight years.

ElectionOrdinaryPre-pollAbsentMobilePostalOther
201247.3%10.7%8.9%6.7%2.7%0.6%
201628.1%26.8%7.8%7.8%3.2%0.3%
202012.7%39.9%7.2%7.4%2.7%0.0%

Less than one in five NT voters cast a vote on election day.

I was a bit surprised to see the numbers of mobile and postal votes drop – although another 700 postal votes would bring the number up to the 2016 level.

About 50% of voters in the NT cast a vote before election day, which amounts to over 71% of those whose votes have been counted so far.

We’ll see how the rest of the vote plays out as counting finishes, in particular to see how big the postal vote gets.

Podcast #41: NT election results

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Ben chatted with Stewart Jackson about the results of last weekend’s NT election.

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