The Tally Room

1:06pm - The lowest-polling Labor candidate and the third lowest-polling Greens candidate have now been excluded in Lyons. The state of the parties now is: Shooters - 0.5734 (+0.0035) Liberal #4 - 0.3843 (+0.0056) Nationals - 0.3339 (+0.0018) Labor #3 - 0.3056 (-0.0026) 1:01pm - The...

During the federal election count, I identified a number of issues with the data being published by the AEC. Two main issues emerged, where the AEC's estimates did not seem to be correct. I have been publishing a data repository for some years now, and...

Now that the Parliament has officially opened for its first sitting after the federal election, we're off to the races with redrawing the electoral map for the next federal election, expected in 2028. No rest for the wicked. The redistributions in this parliamentary term are...

Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham and Chris Monnox to discuss the results of the Tasmanian state election and prospects for the formation of a new government. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider...

Tasmanian election results can often be simplified to totals for each party in each electorate. But votes aren't cast for parties, they're cast for candidates. When candidates are elected or excluded, preferences don't always flow to fellow members of the same party (or "leakage")....

There were some noticeable swings in the Tasmanian election, and there will be some changes in the Assembly, but overall the result seems to have produced a Parliament with a similar balance of power. That's not great news for the government, because the outgoing...

10:56 - All of the pre-poll booths that were due to be counted tonight have now reported. So I don't expect any more results to come in tonight. Right now the numbers for the parties in the parliament look about the same following the election....

8:00 - Polls have just opened for election day for Tasmania's 2025 state election. I won't be blogging during the day today, but I will be covering the results tonight in a separate live blog. I'm also going to try posting some updates on Instagram...

Hare-Clark is basically unique amongst Australian electoral systems because there is a realistic possibility that a member of parliament will lose their seat to a fellow member of the same party - indeed it happens fairly regularly. Another unusual feature is the use of...

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania's five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners in each division. We refer extensively to Kevin Bonham's blog post breaking...