The Tally Room

12:21 - This is my final update for tonight. I've put together a map showing the estimated 2PP swings at tonight's election, but you can also toggle to see the 2017 2PP margins and the 2025 2PP margins. Any non-classic seat is in grey. I'll probably...

There has been a common story all over Australian politics of the major parties losing ground. We now have the largest crossbench in both houses of the federal parliament in any of our lifetimes. New South Wales now has 13 members of the lower house...

The scale of Labor's victory in 2021 makes it hard to know what seats are likely to be the most interesting seats at the 2025 Western Australian election, or the shape of the likely result. Recent polling points to a Labor two-party-preferred vote of 55-56%...

Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Andre Brett to discuss which seats might fall when the Labor vote in the WA state election recedes from the high levels reached in 2021, and how the minor parties might perform under the new Legislative Council...

The upcoming Western Australian state election will feature quite a change to WA elections, with the upper house being elected at large as a single 37-seat election. This has prompted a lot of uncertainty about what might play out. But actually there is quite a...

Ben is joined by Martin Drum from the University of Notre Dame to discuss the new electoral system for the Western Australian Legislative Council and to look back at the last four years of WA state politics in the lead up to next month's...

Today I'm announcing some work that was mostly finished at the end of last year but was put on hold until the new year, but is now finished. I have now added a number of new datasets to my data repository covering elections held in...

British polling company YouGov published their first MRP report for the 2025 election cycle, becoming the second company to publish an MRP during this election cycle. For this post I wanted to run a comparison of the two most recent MRPs from two different...

Nominations closed on Thursday for the WA state election. The nomination information was published late on Thursday and on Friday night I finished publishing final candidate lists on my election guide. The number of candidates for the lower house topped out at 398 candidates, an...