The Tally Room

Friday 2:47pm - The distribution of preferences has been published in New South Wales, and here is the last three rounds. In the third-last round, there were four candidates left competing for two seats when Legalise Cannabis was excluded: Faruqi (GRN) - 0.9456 quotas ...

One of the big stories of 2025 has been the rise of independents. There was a notable increase in the number of independents who stood at this election, but that in itself is not the most important factor. There is a tremendous range in...

Today's booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025. The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side...

The AEC finished the distribution of preferences for Bradfield late on Friday night, after a fascinating day that started with teal independent Nicolette Boele leading by 28 votes and ending with her 8 votes behind. This was a shift of 48 votes from Boele's...

For today's post I am looking at how the Muslim vote changed, using some techniques I've previously used to look at voters of Chinese and Indian ancestry in past votes. At this election we have seen a lot of speculation about Muslim voters switching from...

Next up on booth map of the day, I'm looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia. For each map I've shown the Labor vs...

Yesterday, the Nationals announced that they would not be renewing the coalition with the Liberal Party following the 2025 federal election. This is unlikely to be a permanent break, but rather the parties taking some time apart to re-assess their positions after a devastating...

Thursday 8:55am - I should probably make one more post here with now that the AEC has finished their 2CP count. Labor's Basem Abdo is on 55.08%, which is a comfortable victory after a lot of doubt. Here is the final version of the chart...

For today I've got two maps, covering five seats in mid-suburban Sydney. While these seats are adjacent to each other, I'm keeping them as separate maps because the dynamics in these seats are different. The first map shows Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid. The second...

The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots. The AEC website says that there are 59...