The role of preferences in the two-party race
Australia has used preferential voting for over one hundred years, and in that time the party system has changed quite a bit. Since the 1950s, there has been an increasing trend of minor parties picking up votes, but until recently these votes were not...
Nominations declared – the statistical wrap-up
Nominations were declared at midday yesterday across Australia, but it took all afternoon to slowly get a sense of the candidate figures. I hope everyone found my live blog helpful, as I attempted to summarise as many seats as we could find data for....
Candidate nominations live blog
7:16 - I'm going to end this live blog here and come back tomorrow morning with a summary of the candidate numbers.
One Nation has ended up running 147 candidates, with Trumpet of Patriots running 100, Family First 92, 46 Libertarians and 42 Legalise Cannabis....
Podcast #144: Will the Greens hold their own?
Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Phoebe Hayman to discuss the role of the Greens in the federal election: the seats they are defending and are challenging for, the rivalry between Labor and the Greens and how the electoral system shapes their relationship....
How the map changed from 2007 to 2022
From one election to the next, the swings back and forth of Australian politics can look cyclical - that things start and end in the same place. But when you widen the time frame, things look different. Over time, some place move from being...
The declining two party system in federal politics
Australian politics today is very different to what it was even ten years ago, but the shift in the partisan make-up of the country has been a story decades in the making. For today's post I'm going to recount and update statistics about how...
How do the independent seats lean?
With a hung parliament looking very likely at the upcoming federal election, there has been quite a lot of looking back at the last hung parliament in 2010.
Amongst other elements, there has been some parallels drawn between the experience of the crossbenchers in 2010...
Podcast #143: Will there be another independent wave in 2025?
Ben is joined by journalist Rachel Withers, writer of the Crikey column 'Well Hung', to discuss the prospects for independent candidates, including teal and Muslim independents, at the 2025 federal election.
A 2023 meme from Twitter user Pineapple Crab applying different definitions for a "teal"
Read...
Come along to next week’s event in Sydney
I'll be speaking at an event next week in Sydney as a preview for the federal election.
The event is hosted by my employer GovConnex along with FTI Consulting.
We'll be previewing the election and discussing prospects for a possible hung parliament. There will be an...
2025 federal candidate update
We're less than two weeks away from nominations closing for the federal election - nominations will close on Thursday 10 April, and will be announced the next day.
Yesterday I made a bunch of updates to my list of House of Representatives candidates, and have...