Historic election trends between the states

One of the big questions at this election is how the result will play out in each state. Labor has performed poorly in Queensland and Western Australia but is hoping to pick up ground there.For this post I wanted to examine the historic record...

Which seats swing the most?

Last month I posted an analysis looking at how much seats have moved in terms of their two-party-preferred rank, relative to every other seat in the country. Matt Cowgill on Twitter suggested I also look at the average size of swings in each seat...

Early voting update

Today is the fourth day of pre-poll voting, and it seemed like a good time to check in on how many people have voted so far.Postal vote applications continue to grow, and the total is currently 56% above the level at this time in...

Shaking out bias in the election night count

In Monday's blog post, I ran through the data on the rate at which election results come in on election night: the rate in each state, how timezones explain some of that variety, the national trend for the three kinds of votes counted on...

Podcast #73: The Australian Polling Council

We return again today to the polls, talking to two more pollsters from some of Australia's biggest political polls: Campbell White from YouGov/Newspoll and Mark Davis from Ipsos. We discuss the formation of the Australian Polling Council and what has changed since 2019.YouGov's...

The election night time curve

I think those of us who have followed a lot of Australian elections have some instinctive sense of how election night progresses - when we should expect results to come in, and how quickly they do so.But I thought I would dive into the...

Who wins the early vote?

As a final part in my series on trends in people voting early, today I'm analysing differences in how people vote, depending on whether they vote early or vote on election day, using the categories established in yesterday's post.Despite losing the last two elections,...

Getting the nominations balance right

There was a really interesting story in the Guardian yesterday from Michael McGowan and Joe Hinchliffe about a prospective One Nation candidate and his experiences in the nomination process.Rob Sinclair, who had previously been listed as an independent candidate in Parramatta, offered to run...

Which seats have the highest rates of early voting?

This is a follow-up to Monday's blog post, which explored the trends away from election day voting at the federal level, and how those trends have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.For this blog post, I'm splitting up the 2019 vote between votes cast...

Podcast #72: Minor parties on the right

Ben is joined today by Ben Moffitt from the Australian Catholic University to talk about right-wing minor parties and their role in the federal election, and to profile the seat of Macquarie.This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find...