Podcast #144: Will the Greens hold their own?
Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Phoebe Hayman to discuss the role of the Greens in the federal election: the seats they are defending and are challenging for, the rivalry between Labor and the Greens and how the electoral system shapes their relationship....
How the map changed from 2007 to 2022
From one election to the next, the swings back and forth of Australian politics can look cyclical - that things start and end in the same place. But when you widen the time frame, things look different. Over time, some place move from being...
The declining two party system in federal politics
Australian politics today is very different to what it was even ten years ago, but the shift in the partisan make-up of the country has been a story decades in the making. For today's post I'm going to recount and update statistics about how...
How do the independent seats lean?
With a hung parliament looking very likely at the upcoming federal election, there has been quite a lot of looking back at the last hung parliament in 2010.
Amongst other elements, there has been some parallels drawn between the experience of the crossbenchers in 2010...
Podcast #143: Will there be another independent wave in 2025?
Ben is joined by journalist Rachel Withers, writer of the Crikey column 'Well Hung', to discuss the prospects for independent candidates, including teal and Muslim independents, at the 2025 federal election.
A 2023 meme from Twitter user Pineapple Crab applying different definitions for a "teal"
Read...
Come along to next week’s event in Sydney
I'll be speaking at an event next week in Sydney as a preview for the federal election.
The event is hosted by my employer GovConnex along with FTI Consulting.
We'll be previewing the election and discussing prospects for a possible hung parliament. There will be an...
2025 federal candidate update
We're less than two weeks away from nominations closing for the federal election - nominations will close on Thursday 10 April, and will be announced the next day.
Yesterday I made a bunch of updates to my list of House of Representatives candidates, and have...
Podcast #142: Right-wing minor parties and the federal election
Ben is joined by Ben Moffitt from Monash University to discuss the role of right-wing minor parties in federal politics, why it is so hard for them to work together, and chances in the Senate. We also discuss the seat of Hunter in New...
Federal guide unlocked, and SA 2026 guide published
We are now less than two months away from the last possible date for the 2025 Australian federal election, so it seemed to be about time to take down the paywall around my federal election guide. But I am also launching another election guide...
Port Macquarie by-election live
11:32 - We haven't had any more updates for over an hour so it looks like we've got all we're gonna get tonight. The main batches left are three of the five major pre-poll booths, plus the remaining postal votes. There are some other...