This weekend’s Tasmanian state election is likely to be the last major election in 2025, barely halfway through the year, but that means the rest of this year will be redistribution season.
Two federal redistributions, in Queensland and Tasmania, are set to resume later this month when Parliament returns. Federal redistributions in South Australia and the ACT are also due soon. I will return to this topic in the next few weeks.
But the first redistribution of 2025 is the state redistribution of Queensland. The last redistribution took place prior to the 2017 election, and those boundaries have now been used for three state elections – no other state holds redistributions so infrequently.
Submissions from the public are now open. They will close on August 6. The Commission has not set out precise dates for the rest of the process, but they expect the draft boundaries to be published in early 2026.
For this post, I am going to run through the current population statistics and what that suggests for where seats may shift. There has also been a lot of comments about this redistribution in the comments sections of Queensland 2024 seat guides – you can bring the conversation to this post.
The Queensland Redistribution Commission (QRC) has published their own helpful discussion paper that covers a lot of the same data I will be analysing here. It’s worth examining because it also runs through the criteria the Commission will need to consider.
In short, each electorate needs to fall within 10% of the average enrolment (or ‘quota’) as of May 2025. There is also a ‘large district number’ which means that electorates with a land mass of over 100,000 square kilometres are granted ‘notional electors’ equivalent to 2% of the square kilometres in their electorate.
Right now four seats benefit from these notional electors, and they make up the equivalent of 70% of an electorate. Three of these four seats are currently below the average quota even with those notional electors, with one of them more than 10% under. All three of those seats are projecting to be more than 10% under the quota by 2032. So it is likely that the land mass of these seats will grow. There are two other seats with a land mass of 70-80,000 square kilometres, so it’s possible another seat could benefit from this rule.
This produces a conundrum when it comes to calculating how big a seat should be. The ‘average’ is based on a total population divided by 93 seats. But the actual number of electors that can contribute to a seat’s enrolment is actually about 93.7 seats, likely to go up slightly more. So the average seat should be drawn to be slightly above the average.
The QRC has also published enrolment projections for June 2032. These don’t appear to carry the same weight as the current figures. Unlike in a federal redistribution, there is no requirement that every seat fall withins a certain range, but a sensible Commission would aim to draw the faster-growing districts with a smaller starting population. Mapmakers are often conservative and thus do the opposite, making minimalistic changes which leave the faster-growing areas with above-average enrolments, but they shouldn’t.
Further down in this post, I’ve posted a map showing how much each seat varies from the 2025 and 2032 quotas. But I’ve also summed up the totals for each geographical region of Queensland.
Where one seat is under quota and its neighbour is over quota, it is relatively easy to adjust the border without making more dramatic changes. But when whole regions are well under- or over-quota, that is when more significant shifts are required, and potentially could see seats abolished or new seats created.
The first two columns of data reflect how much each seat varies from the actual quotas. Those quotas do not factor in the notional electors in the large districts, although those notional electors are included in those seats’ fulfillment of the quotas. That explains why these numbers don’t add up to zero. The last two columns adjust the quota upwards to include the existing notional electors, but can’t take account of new notional electors created if those seats are made larger. They do add up to zero.
The seats of urban south-east Queensland are significantly over quota. If it weren’t for the large district allowance, I’d argue that we’d see a seat in the regions abolished and one created in the city, but that may not happen. By 2032, the 61 seats in this area are expected to contain almost 63 quotas of electors.
When we look at a closer level, we can see that Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast have grown the fastest, with Ipswich expected to have a lot more growth over the next seven years.
The southern half of Brisbane is a third of a seat under quota. One difference between my analysis and that of the QRC is that they have split out the suburbs on the southern fringe and northern fringe of Brisbane, and merged Brisbane City into one area. There are a handful of seats in southern Brisbane that are well over quota: Logan is particularly over quota, as is the neighbouring Jordan (included in Ipswich) and Coomera (included in Gold Coast). But more established southern suburbs are consistently under quota. Those seats will likely have to expand south to absorb the surplus population in Coomera, Jordan and Logan.
The northern half of Brisbane has grown faster, and this growth is more even, although Murrumba has grown very fast. While the Gold Coast is due to grow, the region currently has about the right number of voters for its eleven seats. Gaven is well under-quota, but Coomera has enough surplus voters to top it up.
The seats of regional Queensland are consistently under quota. The seats around Cairns are about in line with the quota, but seats further south will likely need to grow. The three Townsville seats are about a quarter of a seat short of the third quota, and are surrounded by other seats falling under quota.
Submissions will close in early August, and I am planning to make a podcast to discuss those submissions along with the federal redistributions. There are plenty of directions the Commission can go in, but it seems likely that seats in the urban areas surrounding Brisbane will get smaller, potentially with a new seat created on the southern or northern edge of Brisbane, and the regional seats will have to grow. But there are a range of options for how the map can be drawn.
Finally this map shows how much each seat deviates from the average, both in 2025 and the projected numbers for 2032.
@John Political representation is one of the things the ECQ explicitly ignores. And yet I can guarantee about 25% of the comments on the proposals will be from people who got upset because they’re losing their local Member. That’s not even including the inevitable astroturfing. 🙂
Townsville is the big problem up north because of the relative population drop. I only got 3 seats there by taking Mundingburra out to the bush and adding Charters Towers.
Since the AEC announced the delay to the QLD Federal redistribution it’s lineball about whether we’ll make it to the 30.5 mark and another seat. And yes, 93/31 works out nicely, except for the Large state seats.
My thoughts at the moment are to add the new seat on the Sunshine Coast, chop the northern section of Blair off and then take the four coastal seats (including Noosa) laterally so they all contain a bit of coastal growth and a bit of stable hinterland. That bends the community of interest but it should dilute the growth.
However I’m very concerned about what the Maroochydore projections are going to say.
@mark it wont get a 31st seat. the curent arrangement makes a 3:1 arrangement (mostly) goven about .7 of the current seats is ghost voters you can easily dividie that 2.3 seats of extra voters over 30 seats. Thats about 2000 voters extra. The problem is that some qld seats are gonna get drawn 15%+ over on projected enrollment. Which federally they just cant do. Ive put townsville into 4 seats as opposed to the current 5. Hinchinbrook maimtains its current parts of townsville. Townsville remains the same. Mundingbhrra gains the rest of townsville from Bjrdekim and shares a couple bloxks to Thuringowa. Ive left Charters towers in Traegar but i think it cn possibly be moved at the next redistribution. There wont be an extra seat this time around but it will definately happen in 2029 along with a probable 17th wa seat. Though given it will be redistribhted this time on 30 seats there will be less work to do. The deferal actually is ok because it goves us more time to concentrate on the smaller sates. Im probably not gonna bother with the act though but il leave that incase i need something to do after ive done the other 3. Ive managed to work up quite a proposal for the qld state as i spent my plane ride finishing my proposal and putting in quite a detailed summary. Im looking forward to the wa and vic state redistributions too.
@Darth Vader You’re doing it the hard way. 🙂
Population quota = Ascertained total population of the six states / (Number of Senators for the states x 2) or Total population of the six states / 144.
Estimated Resident Population for Australia (as at 31 December 2024) is 26,651,151, so the quota is 185,077 rounded down.
Queensland’s population was 5,618,765 at that point, so the entitlement then was 30.3590 seats. However Queensland was growing at roughly 100,000 per year, twice the total Australian growth rate. So the figures that need to go in are the full dataset for 2025 plus the first six (or seven) months of 2026 – a year after the first sitting of the new Parliament. I’m a bit iffy if they’re going to count from that date or the lead up to it.
My view is that if the AEC is saying “it is of the opinion that the Electoral Commissioner’s determination may change the number of members of the House of Representatives to be elected in Queensland at the next election” then there is sufficient concern to delay the process.
There’s also the likelihood that the AEC may slow walk the process if a further small delay may tip the numbers over the threshold. If we’re looking at 30.48 seats and the trend is upward then the AEC may think that another couple of months delay may be viable if they can have the paperwork finished in time for the next election.
Also large overquotas at the State level due to pockets of massive growth tend to even themselves out at the Federal level. The smaller the sample size, the greater the impact of changes.
FYI, my versions of Warrego and Kennedy will probably be the only oversized electorates, with Warrego moving north and east and Kennedy taking in the northern part of Queensland and losing a lot of the suburban areas and coastal communities it has. The goal is to centre everything north of Noosa back into whole urban communities and not split the regional cities.
Mark yore no they wont the wil make tg determination on the date it is required to happen. Thats the law it says the determination is to be be made 1 year on from the first sitting of parliamanrt. Thats when it will happen. Thats just like saying they will make it early to stop a statr losin b a sdat its not going to happen. Im gojng by qhat raurle has stated in his post that qld has taken 2 years to increase by .14 so it wil likely not icrease.
Would it kill you to take a minute to spellcheck your own posts?
Can’t tell if I’m reading Darth Vader, john, or having a stroke.
I wrote that at 5am in the morning.
@Darth Vader Copypasted from the AEC media release…
When will the redistribution come into effect?
More information will be provided following the commencement of the redistribution.
Changes to federal electoral divisions as a result of this redistribution will apply from the day on which a notice of determination is published in the Commonwealth Notices Government Gazette.
Information on when this redistribution will be determined will be published once the redistribution has commenced. Commencement is expected in mid-2026 following the Electoral Commissioner’s next entitlement determination.
Electoral events will not be contested on these new federal electoral divisions until a writ is issued for a general election following the expiry or dissolution of the House of Representatives.
@Real Talk … 🙂
@Darth Vader
Under s.59 of the Electoral Act, “A redistribution of a state or territory may be deferred if:
the redistribution is required due to the time requirements in the legislation (the last redistribution for that state or territory was determined seven years ago), and
the three-person Electoral Commission’s formal direction to start the redistribution is due within 13 months after the first sitting day of the House of Representatives, and
the Electoral Commissioner’s determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives has not yet been made. During the 13th month of a new Parliament, the Electoral Commissioner is required to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives for each state and territory using population data supplied by the Australian Statistician and in accordance with procedures set out by the Electoral Act, and
the three-person Electoral Commission is of the opinion the Electoral Commissioner’s next determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives for each state and territory may or will change the number of members in the House of Representatives for the specific state or territory.
If a redistribution was deferred due to this scenario, it is then required to start after the Electoral Commissioner’s determination has been published. This determination may or may not cause a change to the number of members for the state or territory at the next general election.”
So the seat count as as December 2024 was 30.36. We have roughly 19 months before the determinations start – 0.14 quotas in 2 years will put it just under the line IF the growth stays linear.
That’s a bit hard to determine at the moment because we’re relying on growth estimates and not actual data.
HOWEVER, and it’s a big however, the AEC is dependent on the Australian Bureau of Statistics. They can ask, but the ABS might be a little busy in the middle of the 2026 Census. The advantage of the ABS delaying it’s response until the first results are through means the numbers will be as accurate as they can be, and the ABS can simple shoot the raw population numbers through to the AEC ahead of the release of the full Census.
The determination will be made 1 year from the date of the first sitting of the new parliament that being July 22nd 2025 meaning the determination will be made on the 22nd of July 2026 and that wil be numbers released in June 2026 based on December 2025 numbers. So we have 12 months. Not 19.
Also when can we expect the QEC to release the suggestions?
This is a thread about state redistributions. Discussion about federal redistributions should be put in the right place.
John, my understanding is they won’t be releasing the suggestions until September 1, when the next round of comments opens.
@Raue thanks.
@Ben Raue Sorry Ben, I’m very easily distracted. 🙂
@mark yore to be clear I wasn’t proposing they take into account political representation I was simply stating what the lnp could do
So i got to around 11000 words for my completed proposal. Initially it was at 34000 but then I realised I c + p about half of it several times…..