To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
This is only seat at the moment where I’m confident the Liberals will hold on, however the swing is going to be quite violent so margin could get very uncomfortably close here.
I think Swing will be more violent in Metro Adelaide and less elsewhere.
Agree Nimalan, at the federal election Barker was the only seat in SA that did not swing much (neighbouring Grey did swing a bit more and had a teal like independent in the mix). This suggests that the swing in Chaffey will be minimal and it could still end up being a fairly safe seat (with a margin >5%) after the election.
Even at the 2021 WA landslide election, ultra safe seats in the Wheatbelt area (like Roe and Central Wheatbelt) saw minimal swings to Labor and still had safe margins close to or exceeding 10% afterwards.
@ Yoh n
I agree.
Fun Fact, Labor has won Chaffey in the past. Between 1962-1970 and 1970-1973. During the Playmander Labor was forced to win some Country seats. These days i think Urban-Rural divide has increased and while i expect Labor to have its best ever result statewide the fact that this seat may not be won back shows how things have changed. In the Past Labor in NSW often won seats lik Murrumbidgee, Burrunjack if they existed today I doubt Labor will win it back even if there is a Minnslide in 2027.
If Labor had any shot in Chaffey, Mackillop etc then the Liberals would be looking at literally no seats, which isn’t going to happen.
Having said that, don’t discount the fact that there could still be a massive swing that should make any incumbent Liberal MP sweat.
I realise the statewide polling is very bullish on Labor – but the factors behind that (Liberal culture war rubbish and Pali’s popularity) I don’t believe play out to anywhere near the same extent in the rurals, think despite the likely emphatic result we’ll see a widening of the metro-regional divide in SA
Are the opinion polls showing 16% plus swing to the alp….if so another couple of % on top of that is possible.
But seats safe in rural areas will probably not shift. There needs to be something else in the mix. Eg a popular alp mayor.
The nsw seats were won in landslides of 1941 with exceptional alp members
Look at Wagga alp won and was selected till the death of the sitting mp then wal fife the sitting liberal mp was entrenched.