Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Sussan Ley announced her impending retirement from politics after losing the Liberal leadership on 13 February 2026.
Margin – LIB 6.2% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Sussan Ley, since 2001.
Geography
Farrer covers a great expanse of southwestern NSW. The seat covers most of the NSW-Victorian border, stretching from the Greater Hume area around Albury all the way along the Murray River, and further north to cover areas along the Murrumbidgee River. Main towns include Albury, Griffith, Leeton, Deniliquin and Corowa.
History
Farrer was created at the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. In its time it has always been held by conservative parties, primarily the Liberal Party, although it was held by the Nationals from 1984 until 2001.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate David Fairbairn. He was included in the Menzies ministry from 1962 until 1969, when he challenged John Gorton for the leadership and moved to the backbench. He returned to cabinet for one year in 1971 after William McMahon became Prime Minister, and retired from Parliament in 1975.
He was succeeded by Wal Fife, who had been a minister in the Liberal state government of New South Wales since 1967. Fife went on to serve as a minister in the Fraser government from 1977 until its defeat in 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume following the 1984 redistribution, which had moved Wagga Wagga from Farrer into Hume, and he retired in 1993.
The seat was won in a three-cornered contest in 1984 by Nationals state MP Tim Fischer, with the Liberal coming third. Fischer became leader of the National Party in 1990 after then-leader Charles Blunt lost his seat.
Fischer went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999, retiring at the 2001 election. Another three-cornered contest in 2001 saw the Liberal Party’s Sussan Ley win the seat back from the Nationals.
Sussan Ley has been re-elected eight times. She served as Minister for Health from 2014 until 2017, and as Minister for the Environment from 2019 to 2022. She was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party after the party lost power in 2022, and was elected leader following the 2025 election.
Sussan Ley lost the Liberal leadership in February 2026.
- David Farley (One Nation)
- Michelle Milthorpe (Independent)
- Brad Robertson (Nationals)
- Rebecca Scriven (Family First)
Assessment
Farrer was held by the National Party prior to Sussan Ley narrowly winning the seat in 2001 following Tim Fischer’s retirement. The Nationals would be eager to win back Farrer.
A rural seat like this is also likely a good area for One Nation. This could be quite a complex contest between multiple conservative candidates.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sussan Ley | Liberal | 44,743 | 43.4 | -8.9 |
| Michelle Milthorpe | Independent | 20,567 | 20.0 | +20.0 |
| Glen Hyde | Labor | 15,551 | 15.1 | -3.9 |
| Emma Hicks | One Nation | 6,803 | 6.6 | +0.3 |
| Richard Hendrie | Greens | 5,085 | 4.9 | -4.2 |
| Peter Sinclair | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,577 | 3.5 | -1.8 |
| Tanya Hargraves | Trumpet of Patriots | 2,441 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Rebecca Scriven | Family First | 2,218 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| David O’Reilly | People First | 2,078 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 10,234 | 9.0 | +1.4 |
2025 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sussan Ley | Liberal | 57,916 | 56.2 | |
| Michelle Milthorpe | Independent | 45,147 | 43.8 |
2025 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sussan Ley | Liberal | 64,812 | 62.9 | -3.5 |
| Glen Hyde | Labor | 38,251 | 37.1 | +3.5 |
Booths have been divided into seven parts. Polling places in the towns of Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin have been grouped together, and the remainder of the seat’s population has been split into north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in six out of seven areas, ranging from 51.5% in Deniliquin to 68.1% in the north-west. Independent candidate Michelle Millthorpe polled 58.3% in Albury, which is the largest part of the seat.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the south-east to 17.7% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Albury | 14.7 | 41.7 | 13,035 | 12.6 |
| South-East | 12.3 | 55.9 | 6,962 | 6.8 |
| South-West | 13.0 | 64.5 | 6,524 | 6.3 |
| Griffith | 16.3 | 58.9 | 6,469 | 6.3 |
| North-East | 17.7 | 59.1 | 5,930 | 5.8 |
| North-West | 17.4 | 68.1 | 3,756 | 3.6 |
| Deniliquin | 12.6 | 51.5 | 1,508 | 1.5 |
| Pre-poll | 15.5 | 56.2 | 46,605 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 14.4 | 61.4 | 12,274 | 11.9 |
Election results in Farrer at the 2025 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe and Labor.
Over the weekend, One Nation has selected Narrandera businessman David Farley as its candidate for the Farrer by-election, while the Nationals have selected former military commander Brad Robertson to contest the by-election. No Liberal candidate yet.
With Farley aged 72 & Robertson aged 69 (positively a young national still) it looks like a battle for the ages as Milthorpe is aged 42. Is the electorate particularly aged by national standards?
The ON candidate is 69 and Brad Robertson is either a fair bit younger than 69 or well preserved. Hate to say it – being there or close to myself – that both are male, pale and and most importantly stale.
The Libs are being very quiet – what is going on there?