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@ Trent maybe take out Greenvale and put Point Cook in the second tier list which i think is more double as it only requires a 12.8% over two elecitons rather than 22%.
Sunbury only had a 4.3% margin after the 2014 election which meant it was only 2.3% to the Left of the state. Sunbury replaces the old Tullamarine which was held during the Kennett year. Also in Sunbury especially around the airport. Libs maybe able to argue Melbourne Airport Rail link should have got higher priortity than SRL East since Airport rail has been talked about since 1960s this may mean they will may get votes that they otherwise will not.
I think now that Airport Rail is due to open before SRL East, a date has been locked in, and the Sunshine ‘superhub’ (which will greatly benefit Sunbury too, and makes Airport Rail seem ‘real’ now) is happening too, will probably help negate that argument about Airport Rail vs SRL East.
Sunbury is definitely winnable, it’s one the second list for me but I wouldn’t consider it a “long shot”, it’d be one of the first seats from that list I think the Libs would win.
You’re right, Greenvale was probably a bad choice for that second list, and Point Cook would be more appropriate because Greenvale is one of the few seats where Labor are probably likely to get a 2PP swing towards them (like you say due to VS & Greens surging at the expense of right-wing minors).
@ Trent
Yep the debate on Airport Rail/SRL East is one Labor needs to be prepared for. This is one of the reasons i have talked about Niddrie being a key seat. Airport Rail is due to Deliver the first ever Railway station in the electorate of Niddrie namely Keilor East. Libs will try and argue that Labor delayed Airport Rail and lost track of it due to SRL East.
If Major construction had already started on MARL then i would be much more confident about Labor retaining both Niddrie and Sunbury.