Kew – Victoria 2026

@ Trent maybe take out Greenvale and put Point Cook in the second tier list which i think is more double as it only requires a 12.8% over two elecitons rather than 22%.
Sunbury only had a 4.3% margin after the 2014 election which meant it was only 2.3% to the Left of the state. Sunbury replaces the old Tullamarine which was held during the Kennett year. Also in Sunbury especially around the airport. Libs maybe able to argue Melbourne Airport Rail link should have got higher priortity than SRL East since Airport rail has been talked about since 1960s this may mean they will may get votes that they otherwise will not.

I think now that Airport Rail is due to open before SRL East, a date has been locked in, and the Sunshine ‘superhub’ (which will greatly benefit Sunbury too, and makes Airport Rail seem ‘real’ now) is happening too, will probably help negate that argument about Airport Rail vs SRL East.

Sunbury is definitely winnable, it’s one the second list for me but I wouldn’t consider it a “long shot”, it’d be one of the first seats from that list I think the Libs would win.

You’re right, Greenvale was probably a bad choice for that second list, and Point Cook would be more appropriate because Greenvale is one of the few seats where Labor are probably likely to get a 2PP swing towards them (like you say due to VS & Greens surging at the expense of right-wing minors).

@ Trent
Yep the debate on Airport Rail/SRL East is one Labor needs to be prepared for. This is one of the reasons i have talked about Niddrie being a key seat. Airport Rail is due to Deliver the first ever Railway station in the electorate of Niddrie namely Keilor East. Libs will try and argue that Labor delayed Airport Rail and lost track of it due to SRL East.
If Major construction had already started on MARL then i would be much more confident about Labor retaining both Niddrie and Sunbury.

Has the funding hole for SRL East been filled? All well and good to dig but lots of funds needed to actually carry the project out and a decent portion would be needed from sources other than the state govt kitty at the moment it would seem unless I’ve missed a development.

My understanding was that the biggest hole in the funding was the federal part, where the state had budgeted for the federal government to commit $11.5b but they (until a month ago) had only committed $2.2b.

But a few weeks ago Albanese indicated that they would be contributing billions more to it. The exact amount probably won’t be known until the next federal budget is handed down. If so, it would be timed well about 6 months out from the VIC election (which is probably the strategy).

If Andrew Hastie is made leader it will drag Jess Wilson down for 2026.

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how things transpire in 2026 at a state level. Most marginal Labor seats are on the suburban fringes e.g. Bass, and in regional areas e.g. Ripon. I don’t think Hastie will be too much of a drag in those areas.

Peter Dutton as federal leader didn’t drag down John Pesutto.

I think Hastie may drag down CALD vote esp Muslims so Cranbourne/Narre Warrrens becoming harder also anti-immigration sentiment may hurt Libs in Point Cook

Votante/Nimalan – whilst the recent Bondi incident and the Coalition’s pivot to a national security and anti-immigration argument will affect their ability to win over Muslim voters, I would say it won’t matter much for the other target seats with lower margins (Bass and Pakenham in the Southeast, Yan Yean and Sunbury in the outer North, and Melton in the west). Even Bentleigh with its high Jewish vote could be seen as a new target seat for the Victorian Liberals.

I agree Yon An
I will not matter in seats like Niddrie, Yan Yean ,Sunbury, Hastings, Bass and Pakenham.
The Eastern Suburbs and Sandbelt are better educated but have very few Muslims and i think many voters will just look the other way and be silent about anti-Muslim Rhetoric. Many centrist middle Australia voters just ignored Islamphobia during the Howard years as it does not really affect them.
It will be really Greenvale that will be impossible and Narre Warrrens unlikely and Crannbourne harder but not impossible.

@Nimalan, Yoh An.
I think Islamophobia (which may or may not be driven by politicians) has the potential to stigmatise and isolate non-Muslims as well. Many non-Muslims, including Jews, of Middle Eastern or North African or South Asian appearance are often confused for being a Muslim. The now-dead terrorist at Bondi Beach came from South India as a student in 1998.

Anti-immigration or nationalist rhetoric could isolate such groups.

@spacefish dubtful i dont see Hastie making a challenge prior to Easter/Anzac Day. Susan Ley is doing her best to drag the liberal vote down as it is. Hastie would be in what would be called a honeymoon period by the time of the vic election so he probably wouldnt do too much damage if any. most people are appalued by what happened on Sunday and want action. do you realy think the Bondi attackers cared ay more about any other ethnic group more then they did the jews. if they had of killed all the jews at the event do you think they would have just stopped?

@nimalan they probably arent winning Narre Warren, Cranbourne, Greenvale or any Dandenong based seats anyway.

fyi im in Broadmeadows today and i was going to wathc Rules of Engagement (movie about the middle east) but im not willing to risk my life over it.

Agree Nimalan, most of the swing type voters are more concerned about domestic issues (cost of living and infrastructure developments) and don’t really pay much attention to global/world events when it comes to international conflicts (Iraq/Afghanistan War during John Howard’s term as PM and Arab Spring uprising during the Gillard and Abbott years).

@ Votante
It will be interesting how Non-Muslim South Asian react i am one of them. In the UK for example the right wing have often said that Hindus and Sikhs were model minorities and tried to use that against Muslims. For example Tommy Robinson suported protests against the persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh. So sometimes people use divide and conquer stratigies. Among some South Asians like Hindu Nationalists they tend to support a hardline stance against Islamist Groups some have even attended Pro-Israel demonstrations. I think in India, Modi and his supporters will use the Bondi Terrorist attack to spread Anti-Muslim sentiment. I do agree than i am more vulnerable today with dark skin even though I am not Muslim myself.
@ John, i had Cranbourne as a Dark horse

@nimalan i havent included it in any of my scenarios for a liberal win.

@ John
Can you map out best case scenario for Liberal win

counting Prahran as a loss ive identified the following seats as the path to victory
Must Win
Bass
Pakenham
Hastings
Ripon (NAT)
Glen Waverley
Bayswater
Yan Yean
Melton
Ashwood
Sunbury
Eureka
That puts the coalition on 39 seats. From there they can win any of the following to make up the other 6.
Monbulk
Ringwood
Sydenham
Macedon
Bendigo East
Werribee
Mulgrave
Point Cook
South Barwon
Some Outliers that might be in the wildcard basket
Niddrie
Bellarine
Wendouree

chances are if they are winning Prahran and/or Cranbourne they are already in government and these are just bonuses.

What about Box Hill, Eltham, Carrum, Frankston etc, Mordiallic etc?

I dont see Mulgrave on the path it has never been won by Libs and only a small part (Wheelers Hill) is Liberal friendly but i agree with Bendigo East, Point Cook, South Barwon
I feel Niddrie will fall before Werribee despite it being represented by a Deputy Premier. Niddrie has got good demographics for Libs, Middle Class, Italian, Catholic not Muslim and delay to Airport Rail will cause anger here

they should absolute also be preferencing the Greens in Northcote, Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray. not because they want them to win but it forces Labor to have to defend these seats and use otherwse importnat resorces that would be used to defend marginal and winnable seats from the Libs. Along with the current Greens holdings.

maybe Albert Park and Broadmeadows and any other seats where the Greens are threatening to make the 2PP. they can always reverse it at the next election to remove the greens members.

@ John
I dont think Greens will make 2CP in Albert Park. Libs will increase their primary vote probably by 5-6% and greens will be stangant i think. Albert Park wil become a marginal ALP seat with Libs improving but cannot win it. If Jess Wilson wins and becomes popular she can win it in 2030.

Box Hill maybe.. Eltham probably not this cycle after the redistribution it may be more friendly. Carrum and Mordialloc are partially in Dandenong. so probably not maybe Frankston. in regards to Mulgrave they did manage to make it marginal at the by election so thats why ive included it. the redistribution wuold probably make it easier to hold as it would shift further north. Carrum and Moridalloc are proably gonna move further into Dandenong.

Mulgrave in its first incantation was liberal held. the only member it has had since its recreation has been Dan Andrews up til the by election and we know Dan has a knack for convincing people to vote agianst their own interests but hes gone now.

Albert Park would certainly be more frendlier if it were to lose that St Kilda tail south of Fitzroy st

yep but when Mulgrave was first created in the 1970s much of Springvale/Noble Park was not industralised and much less Multicultural also no local issues like in Melton etc hurting Labor

Well the premier’s husband hit a car and was just done for drink driving after.

That’ll do wonders for Labor

still the liberals managed to get a better notional result then Cook. the margin being 4.67%. i reckon the one thing holding up the labor vote was Dan Andrews. not necessarily his personal vote but his ability to spin the media. i mean he all but ran over a cyclist. talked his wife into taking the wrap and talking the cops out of any sort of investigation and then making it as though the cyclist was at fault. locked down the state in the worlds longest lockdown but somehow the Liberal party was still the problem in Victoria and managed to gain seats. then got his statue and got out of dodge. now that hes no longer premier noone wants him on their premises. you say his name in cnetral melbourne and you have to have a police escort. his legacy will hurt labor and jacinta allen is incompetent and is rivaling Vladimir Putins popularity.

@ Mark
Given the situation in the country such as Bondi that is much more pressing

@mark i dont think anyone is gonna care tbh. i certainly dont. people have accidents every day. half the voters have probably been done for DUI or fender benders

That’s a pretty reasonable scenario of seats for the most part, John. I’d agree with most.

I’d probably put Box Hill in that second list before Monbulk though, although I think Box Hill is the least likely of the 5 key eastern suburbs seats (Ashwood, Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Ringwood & Box Hill) for them to gain. Monbulk is a seat that I think won’t be in their first 17 gains, so if they win that they already have majority government, similar to your comments about Prahran & Cranbourne which I agree with.

For all 3 of those seats – Monbulk, Prahran & Cranbourne – I’d say the Liberals are more likely to win the election without those seats, than to win any of those seats without winning the election.

ive got Monbulk in there because they are more likely to hold it post redistribution. i can see it moving into the northern parts of Pakenham and Berwick which are more liberal friendly.

i think Box Hill would be part of a 2 election strategy if my redistribution panned out Box Hill would be more liberal friendly. especially if Paul Hamer chose to contest the more friendier seat ive labelled “Blackburn”

Ringwood stands out to me as a prime target too being empty with a controversial member and a more senior sitting Liberal MLC targeting it, with Wilson as leader I don’t see them forming government or really coming close without it

agreed. the redistribution should make it friendlier too.

I agree Maxim. If Labor had a sitting MP without controversy, that 7+ margin would make Ringwood one of the harder seats for the Libs to gain in that region. But the fact that it’s essentially an open contest now with the current member being a controversial ex-ALP independent probably wipes a few % off that margin already.

Yes I’d argue with Ringwood the ‘real margin’ is something in the region of 5% whilst in say Box Hill a margin that more appropriately accommodates Hamer’s strong personal following and the recent trends towards Labor would be more like 9%. If there was ever a circumstance to quite violently reverse that trend it would be when the incumbent government is well underwater and the leader disliked (remembering how Federal Labor nullified strong local Liberal incumbents/candidates on account of Dutton being leader). So well worth keeping an eye on both really should the swing be on

Redbridge polling this month had these reported primary votes – LNP 28% ALP 25% ONP 24% GRN 13%. The high One Nation support seems unusual in Victoria (of all places) but it appears to be a function of discontent with the major parties. I believe this was the first time Redbridge included ONP as a standalone option in polling.

I wonder, what’s the overall view on Jess Wilson’s political image or inexperience within the Liberal party and support base? She’s still in her first term. Her short tenure could be exploited by her opponents, mainly Labor and One Nation. I can see Labor trying to link Wilson with One Nation and One Nation linking Wilson with Labor.

I understand Jess Wilson’s reluctance to do a deal with One Nation as it would be electoral poison through seats like Kew, Hawthorn, Malvern, Prahran, Brighton, Bentleigh, Mornington, Ashwood, Box Hill, Ringwood and Glen Waverley. Jess Wilson doesn’t appear to be popular among the conservative base unsurprisingly and while the Labor government has serious problems I’d argue her’s are just as bad given the current political environment at the moment. There is a serious risk that if she makes a deal with One Nation she is punished and could be evicted from her seat but not making a deal would have other ramifications which aren’t positive outcome either. Will be interesting to see what direction Jess Wilson takes.

@SpaceFish, I can understand that she’s in a precarious position regarding deals.

I don’t think she’s that popular amongst conservatives. It could explain the huge drop in primary votes and boom in One Nation support in the past year according to Redbridge.

I think that to conservatives, she is an inner-city Liberal from a political family. If her opponents and detractors depict her as such, it would limit her cut through in more working class or regional electorates when competing against Labor and One Nation.

I would also say it will be unpopular among CALD voters in Outer Suburban Target seats Point Cook and Cranebourne. If she puts ONP last there is a chance that Labor will hold Sunbury on Liberal preferences as i see this as a seat that could become ALP V ONP contest. Other seats that ONP could do well in Sydneham and Melton and Anglo parts of Werribee.

I can’t see the Victorian Nationals wanting to play footsie with One Nation. They are under more threat and have more to lose. Labor could be under threat in parts of Geeling and Ballarat so the Libs have possibly the least to lose. Anyway, between now and November One Nation have to find approx 120 candidates for a big show in both houses. They have a standing start and there is nothing to say that their opinion poll bubble won’t burst.

I think Jess Wilson would have to thread carefully in the age on the rise of One Nation and anti-multiculturalism. Going status quo on multiculturalism would mean traditional Conservative Coalition Voters would move to One Nation but playing footsies with One Nation to oppose multiculturalism would it unappealing to TEALish and CALD Voters.

Marh is 100% right and this is a dilemma for Jess Willson. Compared to 2022 there is more sectarianism and immigration/multiculturalism has now become a culture war. In 2022 there were a couple of culture wars Covid, Climate and Transgender issues but now another one has been added. Post Bondi Nationalism has risen and this has meant that Jess Wilson can loose votes to the right flank as well it is also possible that Labor will loose White Working Class voters who are much more anti-multicultural than in 2022.

There might be different HTV cards issued depending on the electorate.

Issuing a Liberal HTV card with One Nation last or behind Labor (like John Howard did) or saying “no deals with One Nation” would actually help One Nation frame the Liberals as in cahoots with Labor and then tap into the anti-major party or disaffected vote.

I think a lot of teal-ish or small-L liberal voters oppose One Nation mainly because of the party’s stances on culture wars and their climate change denial. A tie-in with One Nation could present a danger for the Liberals in seats like Hawthorn – perhaps the most teal-ish seat in Victoria based on federal election numbers.

Labor are 100% already using language that links the Liberals & Wilson to One Nation, using terms like “Liberal National One Nation Coalition” on social media already.

Labor know that they probably only need to salvage 4-5 of the metropolitan seats <8% to hang onto government so I assume that will be their focus and they will campaign hard on the threat of a LIB-NAT-ONP government being the most likely alternative to Labor winning, in order to save those middle-metro seats where ONP are poison.

But Labor campaigning hard on the threat of a Liberal government being a minority with ONP is also going to help any strong teal candidate who decides to contest Hawthorn, Kew, Brighton or Sandringham.

@ Trent
Not dimissing your thoughts but want to add one important point so it is not forgotton
i would actually say ONP is more of a poision in the Narre Warrens and Greenvale where there a large Muslim Community. A wealthy Anglo in Beaumaris may be Tealish and Pro-Climate action and against ONP. However, they dont need to fear for their personal safety or risk being spat on like minorities who actually like in working class areas. Unlike in 2022, there is greater ethnic/Religious tension this time around. So the Afghan in Hallam is more likely to feal personally scared about the growth of ONP.

I agree. I think the margins in those seats are safer though, especially the Narre Warrens, and Labor will hang on because they are multicultural enough for voters to fear One Nation getting near government.

That’s why the rise of One Nation makes things difficult for the Liberals. They are eating into their white “tradie” vote and their rural / regional vote, but the threat of One Nation getting anywhere near government if the Liberals win (but without a majority) will be poison to the Liberals across a diverse range of metropolitan seats they NEED to win: the affluent inner/tealish seats, the middle-suburban seats with large Asian populations, and multicultural outer suburban working class seats.

@ Trent
Agree reason why i stated Narre Warrens is for each seat under 8% that Libs miss out such as Box Hill and Greenvale they have to further up the Pendulum so elimiating the Narre Warrens as a possibility means they have go up even further. I do agree the White Tradie vote is a base for ONP. Sunbury is a possible ONP gain from Labor if Libs run third. I think Labor needs to try and amplify ONP strength even leak fake pollling that ONP is gaining seats from Libs etc and try and ensure that Jess Wilson is asked about her views on immigrants, Muslims etc so she can get wedged.

I agree, I think they will try to do that too.

They just need to take the current polls that show ONP anywhere between 23-26%, and the Liberals collapsed to 27-28%, and get some to whip up some seat projections that show a LIB-ONP minority and get that circulating all over social media, in their letterbox drops, etc.

As long as the seat projections show Labor winning more seats than the Liberals – but the threat of LIB+ONP winning more combined – that will be effective as a “Only Labor can prevent a One Nation government” scare campaign.

The ‘Vote Labor to keep Dutton out’ certainly worked last year. It would be similar.

Think Labor need to install a new leader to really succeed on that front, I think in the current climate Ben Carroll would romp home and protect Labor’s majority, bit hard to run a ‘vote labor to keep x’ out when the overwhelming opinion of the Labor leader is that she is doing a crap job

What’s going to be really interesting is that I think over the next couple of months ON are going to gain significant momentum as SA Liberals are totally screwed – they’ve lost all their moderate voters to Mali and much of their rural right flank to ON and because it’s basically a sure thing that Mali gets in there are some reports that Federal issues are creeping into state vote intention in a way that primarily benefits ON. Unlike when SA Best fell away as the election drew near and voters really began to scrutinise the party pledges no one really seems to care. Coming off that it’s looking pretty healthy for them so far in Farrer, so there could well be a sense coming into this election that ON are not going away and they will be a threat to both parties.

In response, I think Wilson just needs to try and occupy the centre and win the middle suburbs (where Labor have definitely left her room to do so being a more progressive Labor govt) and hope that the Nats can fend off much of the attack on the right flank in the regions or hang on from Labor prefs in the bush. There is still a good chance thought that ON are caught a bit short on policy development and the Libs can probably appeal to having a bit more of a focussed direction, but only if they themselves put together a strong platform.