Broadmeadows – Victoria 2026

One of the few seats i expect to swing to Labor in TPP terms versus Libs. in 1992 Thomastown, Broadmeadows were among a few to swing to Labor despite a landslide loss.

There will be an increased vote for Victorian Socialists especially in the more Muslim parts of the seat

Agreed Nimalan,
Its quite possible Labor could have a slight rebound in the ttp.

@ SpaceFish
I would say Greenvale, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and St Albans all low SES seats should swing back not back to 2022 levels somwhere in between. Areas with large Muslim communities should see a Freedom Party to Victorian Socialists/Greens primary swing which should happen in TPP we saw that in the Federal level as well where there was a UAP to Greens/Socialists swing in high Muslim areas.

It seems from what I’ve seen on some of the media that there have been a few drive by shootings so perhaps the crime message could cut through here.

Yea but those criminals are voting labor so this seat won’t change.

This seat has always had an extremely high crime rate and has always voted Labor. Same with Dandenong, and Laverton (and it’s predecessors). The only seat with a very high crime I can recall the Liberals winning in my lifetime is Frankston.

The difference is Frankston is very Anglo and socially mixed which some affluent parts Broadmeadows Laverton and St Albans are always among the most dangerous parts of Melbourne and don’t really have any Liberal parts like Frankston does

I’ve put everything East of Melbourne airport into broadmeadows. Firstly because sunbury is over quota. Secondly Broadmeadows has better coi and more frequent transport links then Sunbury. I thought about putting it in Green vale but the numbers just get weitder. Next redistribution it can probably add the rest of Westmeadows but that wont fit this time

Greens are setting up a mobile office and are targeting here which is interesting.

While i dont think Greens will win Broadmeadows i expect them to surge here along with Victorian Socialists. I feel that Greens/VS will do well in CALD working class like ONP will do well in White Working Class both are good at grievance politics.

Makes for interesting campaign strategy and possibly points to more traditional targets in Albert Park or Northcote perhaps getting less attention from the greens?

It’s possible that Broadmeadows can become a Labor vs Greens contest if Greens and Victorian Socialists surge while One Nation eats into the Liberal vote. Labor will still comfortably win on Liberal and One Nation preferences.

@Maxim,
The Greens are still targeting Northcote, I know Albert Park has been thrown around but I don’t seem at the moment winning there although if they improve and Labor continues to do worse then Greens could be a serious threat. I was just surprised to see this seat in their mobile office visiting areas.

Broadmedows contains some booths that the Greens did very well + won in at the fed election. The Greens are probably more involved here than in the past.

I’ll be fascinated to see how the Greens, Sue Bolton (local socialist councillor for Fawkner with a HUGE personal vote) and the VS candidate go here. All three have arguments that they’ll do well.

There’ll be at least a fairly hefty collective swing left away from Labor, but there’ll also be a big swing right. Other question is whether the Libs or One Nation get into the 3CP / 2CP for the right.

Labor might just win thanks to vote splitting on the left and the right.

The Liberals and One Nation would probably get primary votes in the teens or low 20s. There is a slim chance the Greens or Vic Socialists will finish in the final two. Them and Socialist Alliance will preference each other before Labor. They are also going to strongly attract the grievance vote in working, class CALD areas.

As mentioned above, i think this one of the few seats may have a small swing to the Left. Last time some Muslims may have preferenced Libs over Labor due to anti-lockdown backlash there. This time i feel many Muslims will go to Pro Palestine parties such as Greens and Victorian Socialists and those preferences will help Labor in the notional 2PP over Libs. An example was the candiate Mohamad Elmustapha who did well in Muslim heavy areas last time but his HTV preferenced Libs over Labor. The Anglo community is very small. There is a growing Nepalese community in Glenroy and Jacana. There is an Older Italian community in Hadfield and Fawkener but this is generally first generation so i dont think they will vote ONP. There is a Middle Class Italian community in Oak Park which will probably have a small ALP to LIB swing.

Oak Park and Glenroy West had 25% Green votes at the last election with very little campaigning (though there was a lot of campaigning over the road in Wills). Will be fascinating to watch this seat on the night.

Oak Park and Glenroy west are the most Middle class and least Muslim parts of the seat

With the exception of Labor, there could be a whole of candidates – Liberal, ON, Sue Bolton, Greens, VS – all in the 10 -12% range. That could be pretty messy. If a community independent appeared – like Carly Moore – then it could get messy indeed. Hard to see Labor losing, but it could be a Labor vs one of the left wing candidates final two.

The Greens have released their ad for the Northern Suburbs it seems they are targetting working class ethnic communities. There lead canadidiate is Anasina who is Pasifika and grew up in Broadmeadows. While i dont think they will win Broadmeadows it seems they may lead to a left word shift as working class CALD voters this time choose the left flank and move away from Anti-Lockdown parties. The video below mentioned all the ethnic working class areas but did not mention Essendon etc i feel the Greens maybe better at picking up the Grievance vote than Liberals.

@Nimlan I think it fits a broader pattern of the Greens slowly shifting their focus away from the inner city electorates (the Greens may hold current their inner city seats this year, but it will eventually come a time where those seats will simply become too affluent for the Greens to hold no matter how much effort they put into it. Adam Bandt losing federal Melbourne is a prime example of this) and towards the middle ring and outer suburbs as their voting base also shifts out of the inner suburbs.

Tbh I think Victorian Socialists are more of a chance than the Greens in a seat like Broadmeadows and in my view the Greens’ ad, at least in this election cycle, looks to be aimed at preventing VicSoc from gaining more of a foothold than anything else. I think the Greens know better than anyone that if VicSoc do become properly competitive or start winning seats in the middle and outer suburbs that it quashes the Greens long term prospects beyond the inner city.

@ElectionWatcher
I agree with your analysis. I think unless Libs preference Greens i dont see Greens picking up Northcote for example. I also agree VS is probably a better fit for Broadmeadows, Thomastown, Greenvale etc they are better at using class based rhetoric than Greens. A seat i am looking at is Greenvale as I believe VS will surge there especially among Muslims and there may well be a swing to Labor in TPP terms against the state trend.

@Nimalan, I think Victorian Socialist (and other Socialist Parties) are an example where there maybe some overlap in economic grievances with One Nation (such as ‘burn the whole system down’) but it social and cultural issues that makes them radically different to each other. I think VS appeals to Low Income/Working Class CALD (especially Muslims) and Low Income/Working Class but Very Left-Wing Whites as they are both very anti-Pauline Hanson but wanting to disrupt the current economic system at the same time.

@ Mah
I agree with you the Victorian Socialists also have the same throw a grenade at the system attitide. I believe it appeals to people who believe they were cursed at birth by being born on the wrong side of the tracks in a society that looks down at them so they appeal to communities who feel marginalised or the proverbial black sheep. Unlike the Greens they are not trying to appeal to/ or create alliances with tree changers/Tealish demographics such as Doctors Wives who they probbaly feel are complicit in an economy that is rigged against them.

Victorian Socialists have been able to capture a sizeable chunk of votes in traditional inner-city suburbs like Brunswick and Footscray as well as working class, CALD electorates further away. What’s unique about them is that unlike Socialist Alliance, they have run in and have better success in CALD electorates.

I agree that Victorian Socialists are more radical and argue that the political and economic system isn’t working for them, and even overlap with One Nation. According to the About Us section of their website, the Greens want reform in the capitalist system whereas they want to blow up the system.

If Broadie and Essendon are both seats where 5 candidates are looking good for 10+% of the vote… where are the others?

(Labor, Liberal, ON, Greens, Sue – for the record)

Sydenham is definitely 5 candidates
Labor, Liberal, ON, Greens and Maria Kerr. Ashleigh Vandenberg and the West Party are both outside chances.
Williamstown is also probably 5 candidates
Labor, Liberal, ON, Greens and Tony Briffa. Possibly the West Party too.
Then there’s Footscray
Labor, Liberal, ON, Greens and either Victorian Socialists or the West Party.
Same with Hawthorn and Kew
Labor, Liberal, ON, Greens and the Teal (Shima Ibuki in Hawthorn and Sophie Torney in Kew). Although I wouldn’t be surprised if ON didn’t reach 10% in either seat.

Albert Park, Clarinda, St Albans and Werribee are also possibilities

Ooh, the west metro seats are all good shouts. So are Hawthorn and Kew. I have absolutely no sign of the strength of the teal campaigns there, you see the occasional sign up on a drive through the seat but it doesn’t feel like the temperature is anything like Kooyong levels.

Albert Park too. Is the fifth one Dragwidge?

absolutely no *sense of the strength of the teal campaigns, sorry. There are literally signs.

@Josh Yes Dragwidge. Im not sure how well she will do but i expect her to improve on the 6% she got last election. I agree there is no chance Teals win in Kew or Hawthorn, there is no mood for change from the Liberals. Both incumbents are moderate and popular locally. If the Teals couldn’t win those seats in 2022 they will not win them this time round when the Liberals are popular and the government is stunningly unpopular Same goes in Malvern and Mornington. The likelihood of the Teals siding with Labor in a hung parliament is enough to put most voters in those seats off. There are quite a few signs for them around Kew and Hawthorn/Hawthorn East but i think their supporters are more politically active than most so they’re more likely to do so.

@Upthehawks: I doubt the Greens could poll double digits in Sydenham. It is not a strong seat for the Greens.

There’s an independent named Jess Marsh in Footscray who could poll double digits and push One Nation and the West Party into single digits.

It will be very surprising if One Nation manages to poll double digits in Kew and Hawthorn. I also think many progressive voters in both seats including Greens voters will strategically vote teal, which means the Greens vote will remain in or drop to single digits in both seats.

Jess Wilson has attacked, State Labor for funding a Muslim organisation where the Imam has said the husbands can beat and rape their wives-link below. I believe 4 years ago many people thought Liberals could appeal to Muslim voters it maybe the main demographic if the only one that will swing to the left this electon

https://www.instagram.com/p/DepsJxrTC4A/?hl=en

I would hope the political ramifications of her condemnation are not as you imply. Such remarks (those made by the imam) are appalling whether they come from a Muslim, a Christian, an atheist, or anyone else.

@ Nicholas
I think this maybe weaponised at a time when there is growing friction such remarks are not reflective of the any faith. It happened during the Howard era a lot and Hanson wore a burqa late last year. The Greens and VS have emerged as key allies especially when there is rising Islamophobia and Gaza conflict. What i was trying to say is that in 2022 is that many believed that the realignment theory could include Muslims. For example Calwell was one of those seats that voted No to SSM. Before October 7 a few conservative Liberal party branch members i knew said that Moira Deeming would appeal in such areas and that these areas were target seats and it was time to move on from the Tealish demographic.