Niddrie – Victoria 2026

This seat is quite vulnerable as well and if the Liberals were smart they would run a high profile candidate here.

I agree i have called this out many times before especially delays to Airport Rail as there is a planned station in East Keilor.

It’s starting to look like Ben Carroll is going to topple Allan, he seems to be much more popular but its not going to be a good look knifing a female leader and accusing the Liberals that they have a female problem.

In response to @Upthehawks,
It’s highly likely and this is the sort of seat the Liberals need to win if they want to form a majority especially if the sandbelt seats and some of the claywall seats are out of reach.

Ben Carroll has a significant personal vote, looking at the upper house result you find
ALP: 33.3
LIB: 31.6
GRN: 6.3
With a decent vote for the DLP also

Compared with the primary votes in the LA here of
ALP: 44
LIB: 34
GRN 7.4

The Liberals need to either counter with a strong pick of their own or Carrol’s personal vote needs to be detached from him by a sagging party brand – something we saw happen to several strong Liberal MPs last year

@SpaceFish I think the sandbelt seats are out of reach for the Liberals this year. As for the Eastern suburbs marginals, there have been poor candidate selections which I think will hurt them. Is there a possibility that the Liberals win Niddrie or Yan Yean but Bayswater and Ashwood stay with Labor?

@Upthehawks,
That’s how I see it Liberals win seats like Niddrie, Yan Yean and Sunbury but hold onto sandbelt and claywall seats such as Ringwood, Ashwood and Box Hill possibly Bayswater as it is an open race with a very high profile local member retiring so difficult to say.

I think that is high risk strategy
If we assume the Libs dont win the 4 Sandbelt seats. The need to win 4 seats that they did not win in 2010
The 4 most likely
1. Yan Yean
2. Niddrie
3. Sunbury
4. Melton

that seems plusiable
of the Claywall seats
1. Box Hill
2. Monbulk are probably the most likely Labor can retain but they are must wins for Libs they need both

To offset this they may need to win a seat like Bendigo East or Sydnenham
so 2 can be offset but not guaranteed and the latter has never been won before

I think Greenvale will likely swing back to Labor due to reversal of lockdown swing and the Muslim population so they will need to win another seat perhaps South Barwon which is logical

This assume Libs will win Ripon which is logical
So if Libs dont win Ringwood or Ashwood, then they need to win 2 more elsewhere maybe Point Cook, Werribee again not guaranteed and these seats are actually more ethnic than Ringwood or Bayswater.

Now if they dont win Bayswater they need to win another seat maybe Wendouree at 11.9%
so i agree they probably dont need the 4 sandbelt seats this time but they need pretty much all of the Claywall as otherwise they are relying on huge swings elsewhere.

Eltham, Bellarine and Macedon are actually more socially progressive than most of the Eastern Suburbs are highly sucular so if they are not winning the East as it is claimed i dont see why they will win those 3.

I think Labor will retain this seat, but others on this thread have mentioned Yan Yean. I think it is almost a foregone conclusion now that Labor will lose that seat (as well as Ripon, and likely Melton). Sunbury will probably be more of a target in the northwest than Niddrie.
Bayswater, Ringwood and Glen Waverley should be won by the Liberals. Hard to see the voters of Box Hill and Ashwood voting to live tunnel boring machines stuck underground.
Yes, the SRL goes through Glen Waverley too, but the margin there is probably too tight for Labor to hang on to.