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Labor hold, Adding Keysborough into this electorate has really hurt Liberals chances of winning here also the population growth in Keysborough won’t help the Liberals either.
I don’t see the Liberals regaining Mordialloc nor Carrum like they did in 2010. They’re solidified for Labor and are fairly progressive (to varying degrees).
Did you mean to include Keysborough Gardens in Aspendale group?
Ah yes, I have fixed it now.
Some level crossings were removed today in this seat and a new station open at Mordiallic. While i expect there to be a swing here especially among Fiscal Conservatives i still expect Labor to retain this but will become a marginal seat once again maybe 5% swing to Labor.
@Nimalan, agree as I think the only reason why the seats on Frankston Line was won in 2010 which by extension enable Liberal Party in win the state election was due to the unreliability of the Frankston Line and was also the reason why Labor only won narrowly in those seat in 2014 and enabled a majority Labor Government is the process.
Agree Marh
Although the Gentrification along the Bay was helping Libs prior to 2018 when it reversed after Turnbull was ousted and Libs changed directions.
For example in 2010 Libs won Carrum with a margin greater than than their statewide TPP
I meant to say 5% swing to Libs
@Redistributed,
In response to your question to me in the Bentleigh chat. This is a seat where we could potentially small swing to Labor in the ttp or margin effectively staying the same for a few reasons. Firstly, Labor has spent a significant amount of money on the Frankston line after their narrow 2010 defeat. Secondly, Tim Richardson is very active and popular local member. Thirdly, new station open at Mordiallic has opened so people can see the government investing which is general received well. Finally, voters in this part of Melbourne won’t be enamoured with the Liberals doing a deal with a preference swap with One Nation (I know they haven’t made an offical deal as of yet but it’s likely given what happened in SA and what’s happened federally).