8:53 – To finish up this liveblog, I have managed to put together a map of the changes. Fenner was easy – they have reverted to the 2025 boundaries. In the case of the Canberra-Bean border, the draft boundaries have mostly been maintained, with the exception of Norfolk Island moving back to Bean (not shown on this map), the movement of the relatively low-population areas in the Jerrabombera district around Hume into Canberra, and the movement of a single SA1 in the suburb of Duffy from Bean to Canberra, making that border much cleaner.
6:32 – Unfortunately the AEC has not published maps for the final versions. I am relying on the descriptions of the borders to draw them myself – I am confident I have assigned every SA1 correctly, but it’s a bit of a pain to make. It may also be beyond my capacity to accurately do so for the Tasmanian and South Australian redistributions, depending on how much they deviate from the drafts. I will add some maps when they are done, but it probably won’t be until tomorrow.
3:30 – The scale of the changes are significantly less than on the draft boundaries. 9.9% of electors were moved on the draft, and that number is now 6.6%. On the draft boundaries, the new Fenner contained 5.9% of new electors. That number is now zero, with Fenner unchanged. The number for Bean dropped slightly from 9.4% to 9.3%, while Canberra’s changes have dropped significantly from 14.6% to 10.4%.
3:28 – And here are my estimates of the margin. My estimate of the Bean margin has become slightly smaller, falling from 0.6% on the draft to 0.4% on the final version, compared to an actual margin of 0.3% in Bean. These are all pretty loose so overall I’d say the seat is about as competitive as the old boundaries.
| Electorate | Old margin | New margin |
| Bean (2CP) | ALP 0.3% | ALP 0.4% |
| Bean (2PP) | ALP 19.3% | ALP 19.4% |
| Canberra (2CP) | ALP 19.5% | ALP 19.5% |
| Canberra (2PP) | ALP 26.4% | ALP 26.1% |
| Fenner | ALP 22.1% | ALP 22.3% |
3:25 – Apologies for the delay. Here is my estimates of 2PP and primary votes for each electorate.
| Electorate | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LIB prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Bean | 69.4 | 30.6 | 41.7 | 23.1 | 9.8 | 25.1 |
| Canberra | 76.3 | 23.7 | 47.6 | 18.3 | 19.5 | 12.3 |
| Fenner | 72.1 | 27.9 | 53.8 | 21.9 | 16.4 | 0.0 |
11:22 – Unfortunately I’ve just realised that the AEC has not yet published the data and maps. While draft proposals are published immediately, maps and data are not published for the final announcement until it is determined and tabled in parliament. I think I will be able to calculate the changes, but it will take a bit longer.
11:08 – The Australian Electoral Commission in the last half hour has announced the final redistribution for the ACT’s three federal electorates. In the next hour I plan to produce estimates of vote shares for the new electorates, but to quickly summarise:
- Despite original plans to make changes to the Canberra-Fenner boundary in both directions, the Fenner border is now left unchanged.
- The redistribution committee had originally proposed to move Norfolk Island and part of the suburb of Duffy from Bean to Canberra, but that has not been adopted, so those areas will remain in Bean.
- Symonston, Hume and the remainder of the Jerrabombera district will be in Canberra.
