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Another seat were the Liberal party will need to win to get a majority.
@ SpaceFish
Unlike North/West Melbourne there is no local issues hurting Labor here. Also the Narre Warrens are more settled than in the 2000s so i think the area is less volatile generally.
The last level crossing was removed on Webster Road, Dandenong. The Pakenham and Cranbourne line are now level crossing free. While Demographically simmilar to NW Melbourne this areas has been well catered in terms of Service Delivery. It was said that this could be a subtitute for Sandbelt as it is more socially conservative and religious but some factors have to be remembered
The area has some some of the most rapid ethnocultural transformations over last 20 years in the Western World.
Picture this
1. In 2001 the City of Casey was less diverse compared to Greater Melbourne Only 20.9% Spoke a language other than English in 2001 compared to 25.2% in Greater Melbourne. In 2001 41.8% of people in the City of Casey spoke another language other than English compared to 34.1% in Greater Melbourne. If Greater Melbourne had diversified at the same rate it would have become majority Non English speaking.
2. In trms of Religion in the City of Casey in 6.2% of people followed a Non Christian Religion in 2001 compared to 8.0% in Greater Melbourne again less diverse. In 2021 26.4% followed a Non Christian religion compared to 16.3% in Greater Melbourne.
3. More specifically Muslims in 2001 2.6% were Muslims which was same as Greater Melbourne average now it 10.5% Double Greater Melbourne Average
4. There are 14,679 people born in Afghanistan at the 2021 census in the City of Casey compared to only 773 in 2001.
Based on 1999 results the two Narre Warren seats were notionally Liberal when created. Over those two decades the areas has now become settled and an entire generation has grown up. Last time Libs did well September 11 had not occured and most Australians could not point Afghanistan on a map. The less diverse parts of Casey are outside this electorate (Semi-rural areas and Affluent Berwick). The problem for the Liberals is the old saying “You can never go home again”.
Gary Maas has announced that he won’t recentest, this will be a fascinating contest but ultimately Labor still must go in favs
The demographic make-up is one of mortgage-belt character, quite blue-collar and a little low in terms of incomes, but very diverse – big concentrations of Afghanis, Indians and Sri Lankans. This could be part of a cluster of seats (including Dandenong, Mulgrave and Clarinda) where VicSoc mobilise, and/or Labor’s vote sprays quite a bit but enough of it comes back as preferences to see them hold on. Not a great situation for Labor now having to defend another open seat at/near range of the statewide swing needed to lose government. Think the ceiling for ONP here is about 25% on a good night where I imagine they’d end up just ahead or just behind the Liberals on 3CP, be a nervy count for Labor if they came in behind the Libs and the 3CP looked something like
ALP: 44
LIB: 28.5
ONP: 27.5
@ Maxim
Great Analysis just a few points
1. The Non Muslim South Asian community (Sri Lankans and Indians) tend to me more affluent and better educated than the Afghan community so there maybe some swing to Liberal but lower than average. Wheras i dont believe any right wing swing among Afghan or other Muslims.
2. I think there is significant Christian Right vote here and the other two Casey seats (Narre Warren North and Cranbourne) they will likely preference ONP over LIB here and help make ONP in the 2CP
3. I think ONP could actually do well among White Voters here there is Low Contact Integroup threat perception among the European communities and resentment towards Ethnic minorities especially after Bondi which will benefit ONP. Debates about multiculturalism/Assimilation will play in ONP favour among these voters.
4. Among the Afghan and Other Muslim communities there will be ALP to Greens/VS swing but will return in preferences.
5. It is possible that some Afghans/Other Muslims voted for the Feeedom party last time due to lockdowns but this time will swing to Left wing minors this may soften/mitigate some of the Anti Labor swing.