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I’m expecting Samantha Ratnam to give this another crack in 2028 and I can see the Greens winning this in 2028.
@spacefish yeah absolutely. Wills is easily the lowest hanging fruit for the Greens to pick up in 2028, it’s more winnable for them than Melbourne is.
The only thing that could make it interesting is if Peter Khalil retires/loses preselection. Otherwise, I assume it’s a Greens pickup.
I think it is easier to win than Melbourne for the reason i think Sarah Witty could build a personal vote as she is a left-leaning progressive MP. Peter Khalil is a right faction MP and more centrist so there will always be voters turned off by him even if there is peace in Gaza in a way he maybe like David Feeney who was a drag on Labor.
The ALP vs Greens margin here is 1.43%. In Melbourne, it’s 3.02%.
The fact that Peter Khalil is now also the Assistant Defence Minister would absolutely NOT play well in the Brunswick/Coburg section of the electorate. He’d better suit one of the non-polarising seats like Maribyrnong or an outer suburban seat like Scullin, Calwell etc.
A left-winger is needed in the seat of Brunswick, Coburg etc.
Well there goes the idea of a preselection challenge. Aren’t Labor ministers/assistant ministers immune to preselection challenges?
@CJ perhaps but then again if Labor wants to keep Wills they’ll need to think about either sandbagging Khalil heavily or intervene heavily to get him out of there. They could move Ged Kearney across (given she’s a left winger and actually lives in Brunswick) and find someone else who can keep Cooper in the ALP fold.
Given that the left controls the Victorian branches it wouldn’t surprise me if some form of factional maneuvering takes place and displaces Khalil and other right wingers.
@ CJ/Tommo9
I have no personal criticsim of Peter Khalil. He does have an impressive resume and i think he is competent. He also has an amazing migrant history someone who is of Egyptian Coptic background and grew up in Public Housing. However, his foreign policy views are qute Hawkish and Wills is very left-wing and as Coburg gentrifies it is becoming a cheaper version of Bruswick. I do think he is suitable for Maribyrnong, Scullin, Gorton, Lalor etc. He may actually even be a better fit for Bruce, Holt or Hotham on the otherside of town
@Nimalan I think Peter Khalil doesn’t seem to be as willing to speak out about issues like Palestine like Ed Husic and he’s very much someone who sticks to the party line. There was this video online from the socialists (so take that as you will) that showed Peter Khalil walking away from pro-Palestine protestors when they confronted him about supporting Israel. He gave a stock standard response and was also caught yelling at some of the other constituents in Arabic after they went outside to talk about Palestine. It gives off the vibes that he’s arrogant and not willing to budge from the party line on issues that matter to his electorate.
Josh Burns is also from the right but he’s broken from the ranks to talk about other matters rather than sticking to whatever the party wants their MPs to say. It’s likely that’s why he got a swing to him on PV whilst Khalil’s collapsed.
@ Tommo9
I think Peter Khalil is geniunely Pro Israel than Pro-Palestine which is strange considering he is Arab himself. Peter Khalil is also Pro-US and very Anti-China usually people who have Pro Western Hawkish foreign policy like James Paterson, the late Kimberly Kitching, Raff Ciccione are Pro-Israel not Pro-Palestine so if Khalil was a Senator he probably will be vocally Pro-Israel. Khalil had to avoid the topic. I believe Khalil survived narrowly because he courted other ethnic communities such as Italians/Greeks around Pascoe Value/Oak Park and the rapidly growing Nepalese community in Glenroy. Those other ethnic communities would hvae been neutral on the conflict. I dont want to say who is morally right or wrong in the Israel-Palestine conflict as i have both Jewish and Muslim/Arab friends and Khalil is entitiled to his views but his views are not reflective of the direction of Wills.