A retirement announcement today has triggered a state by-election which could be the next chapter in the advancement of One Nation in Australia.
Labor state minister Paul Papalia today announced his retirement from the Western Australian state parliament after nineteen years in office. He has represented the seat of Secret Harbour since 2025, when the seat replaced his previous seat of Warnbro.
Papalia’s seat of Secret Harbour is at the very southern edge of Perth, and would traditionally have been considered a safe Labor seat. Papalia held the seat by an 11.5% margin in 2025, although this isn’t particularly impressive considering the statewide margin was 7.1%.
This seat is a pretty good option for One Nation. The party polled 8.4% here in the Legislative Assembly and 6.1% in the Legislative Council. This was their eighth-best result in the state, which suggests One Nation would be in a position to perform very strongly here if their statewide polling is high.
It is worth noting that, while One Nation has experienced a surge in polls in Western Australia, it has been more modest than in other states. Only DemosAU has conducted state polls here since the last election, and their last two polls showed One Nation on 17-18%.
I will obviously be following this by-election, but now you can read my guide to this by-election, here.
