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This seat has a history of being close but I think as the population grows and the seat shrinks Labor should hold on.
@ SpaceFish
This is a possible Liberal win. The seat of Tullamarine which covers much of the same area was Liberal held during the Kennett seat is is less industrial and more middle class also not very ethnically diverse. The delay to Airport Rail will hurt Labor here but Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals will mitigate some of that anger.
I was more saying long term however, I do agree in the short term this seat is vulnerable.
Libs will need this seat if they want to form.government
The Metro Tunnel is slated to open in December 2025. The Sunbury line will have more connections with the CBD as well as to the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines. Labor might use this as a selling point to help sandbag Sunbury and Sydenham. There might be some anger due to airport rail delays and other infrastructure shortfalls especially since the other parts of Melbourne, mainly over east and south, get priority.