Cause of by-election
Sitting MP Paul Papalia announced his resignation on 6 July 2026.
Margin – ALP 11.5%
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth metropolitan region. Secret Harbour covers coastal suburbs at the southern end of Rockingham council area, including Singleton, Secret Harbour, Karnup and Port Kennedy. It also covers the northern end of the Mandurah council area, including Lakelands and Madora Bay.
History
The seat of Secret Harbour was created in 2025 as a replacement for Warnbro, which was newly created at the 2008 redistribution, but was a smaller version of the former seat of Peel. Peel was held by Labor continuously from its creation in 1989 until its abolition.
Norm Malborough had been first elected in Cockburn in 1986, and moved to Peel in 1989. He held the seat until his resignation under a cloud of scandal in 2006.
In early 2007, the by-election was won by Labor candidate Paul Papalia.
Papalia won the new seat of Warnbro in 2008, and held that seat until 2025, when he won the renamed seat of Secret Harbour. Papalia held the seat until his retirement in 2026.
- Ryan Robertson (Liberal)
- Matthew Barton (Libertarian)
- Rhi Davies (Greens)
- Craig Buchanan (Legalise Cannabis)
- Tim Hamilton (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Georgia Tree (Labor)
- Paul Howard (Independent)
- Robert Burdett (Australian Christians)
- Neil Jensen (Animal Justice)
- Teresa Van Lieshout (Independent)
- Paul Gullan (Independent)
- Anthony Fels (WA First)
- Jayne Palmer (Independent)
- Luke Herdegen (One Nation)
- Peter Dunne (Independent)
- Brett Murrell (Independent)
Assessment
Secret Harbour would have traditionally been considered a safe seat for Labor. But it is a relatively good area for One Nation. Secret Harbour was the eighth-best seat for One Nation in the state in the 2025 Legislative Council election. With One Nation surging in the polls nationally and in Western Australia, this by-election could be an attractive prospect.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 12,876 | 46.5 | -28.5 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 6,913 | 25.0 | +9.7 |
| Tamsyn Heynes | Greens | 2,439 | 8.8 | +5.3 |
| Liam Hall | One Nation | 2,332 | 8.4 | +6.3 |
| Jim Matters | Legalise Cannabis | 1,623 | 5.9 | +5.5 |
| Robert Burdett | Australian Christians | 755 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Elizabeth Storer | Animal Justice | 723 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Informal | 1,323 | 4.6 |
2024 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 17,011 | 61.5 | -19.8 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 10,630 | 38.5 | +19.8 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 60.7% in the south to 68.4% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.8% in the centre to 12.7% in the north.
One Nation came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 8.6% in the centre to 10.0% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 8.6 | 10.8 | 63.4 | 4,928 | 20.1 |
| South | 8.8 | 12.0 | 60.7 | 2,043 | 8.3 |
| North | 10.0 | 12.7 | 68.4 | 1,881 | 7.7 |
| Other votes | 11.0 | 10.2 | 57.6 | 8,701 | 35.4 |
| Pre-poll | 8.3 | 7.7 | 63.6 | 7,007 | 28.5 |
Election results in Secret Harbour at the 2025 Western Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Greens and One Nation.
Hi Ben,
Great preliminary analysis. I have had a look at your Canning 2025 federal election page ( https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/canning2025 ), which shows the 2022 and 2025 federal boundaries, and I’m not sure whether the green line on your Secret Harbour map here (above) might be the 2022 federal boundary? Regardless, Andrew Hastie MP will be following this one mighty closely. Cheers
@Andrew from 3040
The green line on the map is line between Rockingham and Mandurah councils.
As for this seat, I know the area fairly well (I have friends there) – it’s unlikely Labor will lose this, barring a seismic event, and/or candidate selection by respective parties.
Secret Harbour itself (often abbreviated to Secrets) is one of the posher suburbs of Rockingham council, with a golf course in the middle of it, and known for its amazing beach. Lower-middle to middle class, but with a sizable population working in a trade. Golden Bay and Singleton are largely new suburbs with a lot of young families. Singleton does have an old part to it (like Quinns Rocks does in Perth’s outer north).
Port Kennedy, to the north of the bushland that splits it from Secret Harbour, is a bit more working class, but less so than Warnbro directly to the north, and I can see One Nation doing best there in this seat. It’s also a bit older (the older bits of Secret Harbour were built at the same time as much of Port Kennedy).
The parts of Mandurah council in this seat are, again, largely new suburbs, not the posh canals of Halls Head, retiree-friendly Dawesvile, or working class Greenfields. Like in 2025, I say this will be more One Nation friendly than the centre of the seats, but less so than Port Kennedy.
My prediction as of now – Labor hold, margin cut to single digits, One Nation to do best in Mandurah council and Port Kennedy, Liberals to do best in the centre.
Yes the green line is always the local government border.
It is interesting that the Southern part of the seat swung heavily to vote for Andrew Hastie when it was moved from Brand to Canning which diverged from the Northern part of the seat which remained in Brand with the federal results on having a static swing despite both voting similarly in State Election two months before as well previous elections. What is with the Papalia-Hastie Voters in the seat?
“What is with the Papalia-Hastie Voters in the seat?”
Campaign effort. The Libs put in money and effort as the same area was moved from safe Labor to marginal or Liberal seat. It is fairly common after redistributions.
@ Anton Kreitzer
I have been reading that in Mandurah the Estuary acts as a social divide and hence voting patterns in the two state seats of Mandurah and Dawesville. Are you able to clarify as someone from Perth?
@Nimalan
The parts west of the estuary/bridge (state seat of Dawesville) has a richer, older population, and is traditionally more Liberal-leaning, the state seat of Mandurah has a higher prevalence of state housing, especially in areas east of Mandurah city centre, like Greenfields.
Only a small part of Mandurah city council is in the seat of Secret Harbour (namely the suburb of Madora Bay, and a portion of the suburb of Lakelands), but results from this by-election, particularly how well One Nation poll, will be far more relevant to the areas in the seat of Mandurah, than those in the seat of Dawesville.
Hope this helps.
Thanks @Anton Kreitzer that is good ot know as state seat of Mandurah is interesting as Labor won in 2001 and held it since including the Liberal landslide in 2013 i think the Labor margin in Mandurah is a bit lower as there was a retiring member last time but if ONP does well in the by-election in Secret Harbour they may put a lot of effort into Mandurah in 2029.
@Nimalan and Anton Kreitzer, I think the best comparison for the Mandurah area is the non-wealthy areas of Mornington Peninsula (Dromana, Rosebud etc) where with the by-election which One Nation perform at around 30% of the vote replacing many Labor Vote in process. Both areas have is home to a ‘technically low income’ retirees and feels like they are their own town rather than being part of their respective metropolitan area despite being in the continuous urban area.
@ Marh/Anton Kreitzer
i Agree with Mornington Penisula comparisons. I think further north closer to Rockingham is more industrial and can be compared with Hastings, Crib Point etc on the Mornington Penisula or parts of Frankston. Interestingly both these area tend to attract a lot of British immigrants just like the Coastal suburbs of the north (Moore/Pearce) although those areas tend to be more affluent and less industrial.
Labor have pre-selected Georgia Tree as their candidate for Secret Harbour:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-labor-reveals-candidate-for-secret-harbour-byelection-after-minister-steps-down-20260709-p60dzz.html
Has there been a WA poll lately? Do we know where ON are polling at the state level?
This could end up being a very desperate by election as all of Labor, Libs and ON need a win here. The Libs are pretty remiss in not having a candidate lined up as the resignation of Paul Papalia has been in the offing for a while.
@Redistributed: A @DemosAU WA state poll taken between 29 May and 11 June recorded primary votes of ALP 33%, LIB 23%, ONP 18%, GRN 12%, NAT 3%, OTH 11%. https://x.com/AusPoll6/status/2066355013966840135
The Secret Harbour by-election will be closely watched for how much One Nation can erode Labor in an outer suburban area, and also for its implications for the overlapping federal seats of Brand and Canning. Andrew Hastie, who holds the federal seat of Canning, is being relentlessly targeted by One Nation for giving evidence against Ben Roberts-Smith in his failed defamation case and his hardline rhetoric against One Nation.
The AFR reported that “Labor insiders said recent polling estimated Labor and One Nation’s vote in the outer-suburban area was in the mid-30s, while the Liberal Party vote was hovering in the high teens”.
https://archive.md/g7Lhz
If One Nation comes close to winning Secret Harbour, it will rattle the federal Members for Brand and especially Canning. A victory in Secret Harbour for One Nation will gather momentum for One Nation’s federal campaign in Canning in 2028 and send a strong message to Andrew Hastie that his time in federal Parliament is coming to an end.
The by-election will also be an electoral test for both Premier Roger Cook and Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas, but especially for Basil Zempilas, whose Liberal Party is staring down the prospect of finishing a distant third behind One Nation. If the Liberal Party finishes a distant third behind One Nation as Labor’s internal polling suggests, it would seriously undermine Basil Zempilas’ leadership.
I think One Nation will finish in the 2CP against Labor in the by-election. Labor will most likely still win, but One Nation could get close.
The longer term trend here for Labor looks concerning, used to vote 10-15% to the left of the state and now only 4%. ONP will be a more formidable opponent here than the Liberals too, think this is in serious danger unless ONP continue to go off the boiler nationally
I also think part of the fact is that Liberals are underperfoming in the affluent Tealish areas so while they did get a swing to them in those areas it was below average for example Churchlands, Bateman etc. Statewide in 2025 there was a 12.5% swing to Liberals after a 14% swing to Labor in 2021 so the statewide Labor did slightly better in 2025 but 2021 but the swings have not been distributed evenly. The swing in 2025 is Secret Harbour was 19% to Liberals but in Warnbro in 2021 it was 10% to Labor so below average. In the 2025 Federal election in WA we saw simmilar patterns were outer rim areas like Pearce had a swing to Liberals but not two other pick ups Tangney and Swan. It maybe the case that some moderate Liberals who voted for Liberals in 2017 have not returned after 2021 but there is Outer Suburban Anger on Cost of Living etc which means Labor is doing worse than in 2017.
Pauline Hanson visited this seat with the ONP candidate Luke Herdegen who owns a chain of gyms in the Southern suburbs