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Very similar seat to ivanhoe. Can be won by the Libs in a landslide with a moderate leader. 2030 with Pesutto maybe 😂
@ Up the Dragons
Can be won in a Liberal landslide with a moderate leader but boundaries are much more Labor friendly than in 1992 when they last won as it includes Flemington now. Libs probably need 58% TPP statewide to win it
Like many seats close to the city I don’t see the Liberals winning this due to the demographic changes and on these boundaries are not as favourable to the LNP. I think the Liberals have a better chance of winning Niddrie instead of here.
If the Liberals can’t win Essendon, they won’t win Niddrie.
Niddrie is a wildcard given the deputt Premier sits in that seat.
@ Pencil
I actually think Niddrie may fall to Libs it is more middle class and less diverse also high average voter age home ownership and delays to airport rail will hurt Labor in Niddrie
I think Niddrie will fall before Essendon. If zben carrrol weren’t the member or deputy premier I’d say the libs would win that but Essendon I’m seriously doubting
Essendon has better boundaries for Labor than in 1992 when Libs just won. This only a seat that Libs win at very high tide elections so unless Libs get 58% TPP statewide they will not win this.
Some of these suburbs have hugely different results at federal elections in the last 10-15 years. Flemington, Kensington and even Ascot Vale have absolutely romped it in for the Greens a few times, and you’d think Essendon would be a prime target with all the new flats going in. Plus a high Liberal vote makes a three corner contest imaginable. So it’s interesting to see Labor luring back so many of those voters at a state level.
Niddrie is definitely the more likely seat to fall, despite Essendon coming close in 2010. They ideally need a strong local councillor to get Niddrie to fall as I assume Ben Carroll will go all out. Essendon almost fell in 2010 with the member retiring, although Danny Pearson is the ideal candidate to run against given his record. Any redistricting that removes Flemington from Essendon in the future will make this ideal for the Liberals to pick up.
the only factor that is probably gonna save Niddrie for labor is the fact its occupied by the deputy leader of the party. forcing them to sandbag it