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This seats margin is inflated and has been close with it almost flipping in 2010. If the Liberals were to be more moderate then they could peal this off Labor. It’s worth noting that the Liberals have not held a metropolitan electorate on the western side of the Yarra at all this century so the odds are not in their favour.
i live in the neighbouring seat of Bulleen while this seat is North of the Yarra it is high SES and Upper Middle Class. It is socially progresisve on Climate, LGBT, Voice etc so i think Pesutto could have had a chance but Moira Deeming will be a liability here as is a focus on Social conservative. However, this seat is fiscally conservative.
the libs will probably work their way in here probly not a gain but could pull it back to marginal and hope for a favourable redistribution