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Could this be a ALP V GRN seat on Federal results?
I doubt it as Keilor Downs booths would probably be won by the Liberal party before the Greens.
Keilor Downs has two booths and Kealba are the only ones in Gorton. I agree it is not as poor as the rest of the seat. However, Keilor Downs is not Keilor and is still a weak area for Libs and still working class but Greens outpolled Libs in pretty much all booths in Fraser and 75% of this seat is Fraser not Gorton i did not say Greens will win this seat or any booths but could they outpoll Libs in St Albans.
I think it’ll be an ALP vs LIB seat. The Greens at the federal election had the benefit of an unpopular Liberal leader and Huong Truong – a high-profile Greens candidate in Fraser. Huong Truong may have a better chance if she runs in Footscray than in St Albans.
The Greens might reach double digits in primary votes with DLP in free fall and the decline of the ‘freedom’ and minor right-wing party vote.
@ Votante
The Greens will make less effort here than Footscary and Huong Trong will run in Footscary than here. However, the reason i mention this as this is often seen as a “realignment seat” The right flank of the Libs wants to target this seat. Moira Deeming ran here in 2014. This seat had the second best swing to Libs in TPP terms in 2022 after Greenvale.
It will be good if someone can calculate this seat on federal figures whilst i clearly dont think Greens will pick it up i think we need to discuss if this in fact a right trending seat or was 2022 just articially lockdown while there was a big drop in Labor Primary vote it seems of the right parties it was the DLP that was the biggest beneficiay. However, i want to Question that further since on the ballot paper the DLP was higher than ALP and me thinks it created confusion as the DLP appears as Labour-DLP on the ballot paper. This seat has the second lowest % of English speakers. In 2013, When the LDP appeared before Liberals on ballot paper it created confusion in the NSW Senate race and i think inflated their senate vote-the Sutherland Shire had a huge DLP senate vote. I have always thought along with Greenvale this seat is likely to have a small swing to Labor on TPP. 87% of this electorate it in Fraser and only 13% in Gorton. https://pollbludger.net/vic2022/LA.htm?s=StAlbans
There is a pretty high proportion of catholics here and the ‘no religion’ selection for census was about half the state average here, which does pair with other outer metro seats where the DLP picked up significant support, Western metro being one of their target upper house areas (with Finn on the ticket) probably meant they put in more effort here as well to be totally fair.
How 2nd generation Vietnamese migrants vote this state election may well decide whether Labor sees little to no blowback or if it follows the current (polling) state trend and swings quite heavily
@Nimalan, the Liberal Candidate was on top of the ballot sheet last time and I think (besides the lockdown issue) the swing the TPP might also had been a fair amount Vietnamese Australians preferencing Liberals over Labor probably due to better campaigning from Trung Luu being elected as the Western Metropolitan MP (although he ran in the seat in 2018 as well)
@ Maxim
Your are correct about the Catholic percentage being higher than avergage 25.6% compared to 20% nationally and statewide. This can explain part of the DLP vote. This seat has a high percentage of Southern/Easterns Europeans such as Maltese and Croatians but i honestly feel this is the first generation and gradually declining younger generations have moved to more affluent areas such as Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill and Hillside and i feel it is those generations moving Rightwards. I do think younger generations here are non Europeans such as Vietnamese someone of whom maybe close to 3rd generation. The most Catholic seat is actually Niddrie but that is a weak area for DLP as it much more affluent.
@ Marh
I agree it is possible I wonder if Vietnamese Australians will trend Liberal they dont face as much racism these days compared to even 20 years ago. Having said that i dont think Anti-Communism is as much a factor in younger generations as today Vietnam is seen as country rising and many can freely visit their ancestoral homeland as they please so may not share the bitterness of the first generation