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Despite the redistributions being favourable to Labor in 2022 they still lost here which just shows the re alignment of this region away from Labor.
i am not sure if this realignment seat i would say it is de-industralisation with decline of Coal mining. Brown Coal is not exported so unlike the Hunter Valley Labor vote is steadily declining over time. This is like West Virginia/Kentucky. i mentioned in the 2022 Morwell thread, that this was Labor’s last ever chance to win the seat. I dont Labor will ever win this seat again and they have a better chance to win Rowville in the future than Morwell. In Hindsight, Labor should not have bothered here in 2022 and they should have targetted Croydon instead.
Agree Nimalan, this seat is like Bathurst in NSW where the transformation has been more gradual rather than sudden. If the 2011 state election was not a landslide defeat but rather a modest Coalition victory (similar to Queensland 2024) then Bathurst would still have been lost whilst Labor retained its traditional seats (Blue Mountains, Newcastle, Granville etc.).
I agree Labor should have focussed on Croydon, I still think Rowville is out of reach though.
@ Yoh An
Perfect example it is like Bathurst more specifically the area around Lithgow which is trending right. We can see this at both levels as Gippsland/Calare have trended right. Labor is not going to with Bathurst again so if Chris Minns wants a majority he needs to look at other seats such as Winston Hills. I think in another 15 years they were will be no Red booths left in the La Trobe Valley at either level of government.
@ SpaceFish i also think Rowville is out of reach but what i am saying is that i expect Morwell to become more right wing over time but not as much change in Rowville. In 2022 Labor won 60 notional seats (including Greens held seats) in 2002 Labor won 62 (no Greens won seats). Two seats that Bracks won in 2002 (Morwell/Narracan) will never be won again so if Labor wants to win 62 notional seats (including Greens held ones) they need to loook at two more (Croydon and Polwarth) subject to boundaries are better targets than Morwell or Narracan in the future.
The main issue in Morwell in 2022 was the imminent closure of the Maryvale paper mill due to hardwood timber supplies (forests) being destroyed in 2019-20 bushfires.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-14/white-paper-production-stops-maryvale-paper-mill/101973646
Labor first won Morwell in 1970 state election. This was long after coal mining commenced in the Latrobe Valley. It was one of four rural seats that Labor gained at that election. The others being Portland, Dundas (based on Hamilton) and Kara Kara (based on Maryborough). The Labor gains were due to a large leakage of preferences between the Liberal Party and Country Party. The Country Party also lost three seats to the Liberal Party.
The Age Newspaper had an article regarding the outcome of the 1970 Victorian state election – complete with quotations from Liberal Party Premier, Henry Bolte.
“The campaign: It was particularly dirty. A lot of infighting. But the Country Party received its just reward.”
Looks like there was some kind of dispute between the Liberal Party and Country Party which resulted in Labor winning Morwell for the first time along with the three western Victorian seats.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/from-the-archives-1970-bolte-s-liberals-win-sixth-successive-election-20200528-p54x8a.html
WW
The late 1960s and 1970s were the Latrobe Valley heyday. The SEC and the towns grew quickly and Labor reaped that reward. The other issue to consider now is that One Nation do well in the Valley. It is probably the best Australian comparison with a US or northern England rustbelt.
Nimalan,
It is 60 years since Lithgow had enough voters to determine the result in a state election and it has never had enough voters to determine the result in a federal election.
The NSW seat of Hartley was based on Lithgow. Hartley was held by Labor until 1965 when it was won by the Liberal Party. In 1968, Hartley was expanded and renamed Blue Mountains. Blue Mountains was retained by the Liberal Party until the 1978 Wranslide election.
In 1981, there was a redistribution which removed the rural weighting. This redistribution moved Lithgow into the seat of Bathurst for the first time ever. Despite winning 55.73% of the first preference vote statewide, Labor were only able to win Bathurst by 31 votes.