With the resignation of Gareth Ward this morning, shortly before his expected expulsion from Parliament, a by-election will be needed to replace him in Parliament. The Kiama by-election should happen soon, likely in September.
I won’t be delving into the issues around Ward’s legal situation, or the potential expulsion – the focus here is entirely on the impending by-election.
Labor will fancy their chances of winning, after almost defeating Ward in 2023. The seat was Labor-held before Ward’s first win in 2011. But perhaps a Liberal candidate without Ward’s baggage or his dividing of the conservative vote could still be competitive.
You can read my guide to the Kiama by-election here.
This will be an interesting by-election given not only the circumstances but also the fact that this usually is a marginal seat.
Labor has 45 seats which is two short of a majority (47). If they gain Kiama then they will be only one seat short. However, the Coalition need 12 seats for a majority as they have 35 seats (having lost Pittwater at the by-election earlier this year which was caused by the resignation of an MP for the same reason). This would be their chance of getting back their 36th seat and reducing the number of seats needed for a majority in 2027 to 11.
Again hard to predict this one since it could go either. I think it’ll come down to the candidates. Last time the Liberal candidate was Melanie Gibbons who was parachuted in at the last minute. Melanie Gibbons was the retiring member for Holsworthy (formerly Menai) in Sydney.
@ Nether Portal
I honestly dont know who will win the 2027 NSW election but Labor will need to pick up atleast 2 to get a majority. I think Kiama and Winston Hills are probably the most likely pickups. I dont think they will pick up Goulburn. Ryde and Holsworthy has first time members so they may get a better result next time.
Also Kiama is important as it overlaps with Gilmore and Whitlam two critical seats.
After yesterday’s vote in parliament on ministerial power on power matters it truly doesn’t matter … LibLab both do what their lobbyists pay for …
This will be an interesting contest but I expect Labor will likely to pick this up. Labor absolutely dominated in this area at recent Federal election, look at the Gilmore results, though voting system is different with optional preferences at state level.
Lots of speculation about who candidates will be. Labor is likely to pick Katelin McInerney again, but there are rumours that Labor councillors in Kiama and Shoalhaven could go for it. Greens are already running a process for selecting a candidate. Nationals are also sniffing this seat out. Kate Dezarnaulds who was an independent for Gilmore said during the federal election that she would run for Kiama state seat in case of a byelection.
Liberals are absolutely on the nose here. Lots of rumours about who is positioning for it, but a large number of them also were close or friendly with the convicted former MP… also twice-failed Gilmore Liberal candidate Andrew Constance had shown interested in this seat previously.
The by-election will be interesting, in terms of where the vote goes. We can only wonder what voters think.
Have they become more willing to go with either of the major parties since the election? If not, would they feel comfortable with supporting another Independent? After all, just enough of them kept faith in Ward to enable him to hold his seat. They were satisfied with how he served them as their local MP, and while they knew about the charges that he faced, they were fine with the principle of “innocent until found guilty” under our justice system. And of course, we can never take for granted how courts will rule on anything.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see how voters respond in the by-election when it happens.
@Nimalan even Winston Hills will be hard as the Liberals will be fighting hard to hold onto that as it’s a gateway into Western Sydney and is multicultural, but nevertheless it’s still a very competitive seat and Labor could theoretically win it. However I don’t see Labor winning Terrigal.
@ Nether Portal
Agree Winston Hills is also where the two Sydney’s meet the Hills and the flat Cumberland plain. Labor has never won Terrigal so i am skeptical. Ryde, Holsworthy and Drummoyne all have first term MPs so they usually get a boost while Oatley i think is still trending Liberal due to gentrification along the Waterfont.
Is the liberal party in Kiama even a thing now that Ward is gone?
@nimlan I think we will see another minority government in nsw in 2027 though I won’t speculate which side it’s entirely possible the libs could pickup those 5 marginals. And after labor regains Kiama both sides would be on 41 seats. However the greens would surely side with labor so you think labor would be in the better position to form govt
@ John you maybe right i am not sure TBH i think the following seats are best chance of Liberal pick ups in order of liklihood
1. East Hills
2. Penrith
3. Camden
I think South Coast/Monaro are harder as sitting MPs in Regional seats are harder to dislodge.
The Rural MPs will side with Coalition in hung parliament and probably the Teals as there are no difference in climate policy at a state level between Labor/Coalitions. Alex Greenwich and Greg Piper will support Labor.
* I am counting Wakehurst, Wollondilly and Pittwater as Teal seats
Or an Independent?
https://www.thebuglenews.com.au/NewsStory/kiama-by-election-candidates-have-your-say/689ad24ede4274002edea908
It is a limited offering with two Greens candidates, Labor, Liberal and no real Independant.