12:33 – I have reconsidered my method of calculating the margin for the seat of Bean. There is quite a high correlation between Labor 2CP and Labor 2PP in the seat, which is explained by Liberal voters preferencing the independent at high rates. So I think I can apply the same method I used for seats like Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth prior to the last election: I compare the 2CP and 2PP in the comparable areas, and then apply the difference to the 2PP in the non-comparable areas.
In the case of Bean, this produces a Labor margin of 0.6%, compared to my first estimate of 1.1% and the actual 2025 result of 0.3%. I will update the tables to reflect this.
12:04 – I have now calculated my estimates of margins. 2PP margins between Labor and Liberal are fairly simple but the other margins should be taken with a big grain of salt.
In Bean and Canberra, I have calculated what share of preferences from all the other candidates apart from the top two flowed to those top two in the areas that have continued in those seats, and then applied that formula to the primary votes for the new areas.
There was another tealish independent who ran in Canberra and the Greens ran in Bean, so I have treated their primary votes as comparable. But it is worth noting that Jessie Price in Bean did substantially better than Claire Miles in Canberra, which would have also depressed the Greens vote in reverse. So it is likely I am overstating Labor slightly in both cases. EDIT: I have reconsidered my method of calculating the Bean margin, see the 12:33pm post.
Anyway, the changes are not significant in any seat, and in some cases they barely move at all.
| Electorate | Old margin | New margin |
| Bean (2CP) | ALP 0.3% vs IND | ALP 0.6% vs IND |
| Bean (2PP) | ALP 19.3% | ALP 19.4% |
| Canberra (2CP) | ALP 19.5% vs GRN | ALP 19.5% vs GRN |
| Canberra (2PP) | ALP 26.4% | ALP 26.1% |
| Fenner | ALP 22.1% | ALP 22.3% |
Primary vote estimates
| Electorate | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LIB prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Bean | 69.4 | 30.6 | 41.8 | 23.1 | 9.9 | 25.0 |
| Canberra | 76.1 | 23.9 | 47.5 | 18.4 | 19.4 | 12.3 |
| Fenner | 72.3 | 27.7 | 53.6 | 21.7 | 16.5 | 0.7 |
11:34 – Here is a map where you can zoom in and toggle on and off the old and new (draft) boundaries.
11:07 – I’ll come back to the rest of the analysis after midday.
11:04 – The Redistribution Committee has again avoided minimalistic changes, but instead has made changes in both directions on both of the ACT’s internal electorate borders.
Bean has taken in the remainder of the Woden Valley from Canberra, specifically the suburbs of Curtin, Hughes, Red Hill, Garran and Lyons. Canberra has then gained the Molonglo Valley suburbs of Molonglo, Whitlam, Coombs, Wright, Weston and Denman Prospect from Bean. Canberra has also taken in Norfolk Island from Bean.
There have also been changes in both directions on the Fenner-Canberra border. Fenner has gained the Belconnen-area suburbs of Hawker, Macquarie and Weetangara, and has lost the Gungahlin-area suburbs of Crace, Mitchell and Kenny.
11:00 – The draft redistribution has been published.
9:00 – The draft federal redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory’s three federal electorates is due to be released this morning. Unfortunately I will be busy for most of the time until midday, but I will post my analysis of the redistribution as soon as I can.
My plan is to follow a similar routine as I did with the Tasmanian redistribution two week sago.
The ACT only has three electorates, so the changes shouldn’t be too dramatic. I ran through the enrolment numbers in this previous post.
