Cause of by-election
Sitting MP Paul Papalia announced his resignation on 6 July 2026.
Margin – ALP 11.5%
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth metropolitan region. Secret Harbour covers coastal suburbs at the southern end of Rockingham council area, including Singleton, Secret Harbour, Karnup and Port Kennedy. It also covers the northern end of the Mandurah council area, including Lakelands and Madora Bay.
History
The seat of Secret Harbour was created in 2025 as a replacement for Warnbro, which was newly created at the 2008 redistribution, but was a smaller version of the former seat of Peel. Peel was held by Labor continuously from its creation in 1989 until its abolition.
Norm Malborough had been first elected in Cockburn in 1986, and moved to Peel in 1989. He held the seat until his resignation under a cloud of scandal in 2006.
In early 2007, the by-election was won by Labor candidate Paul Papalia.
Papalia won the new seat of Warnbro in 2008, and held that seat until 2025, when he won the renamed seat of Secret Harbour. Papalia held the seat until his retirement in 2026.
Assessment
Secret Harbour would have traditionally been considered a safe seat for Labor. But it is a relatively good area for One Nation. Secret Harbour was the eighth-best seat for One Nation in the state in the 2025 Legislative Council election. With One Nation surging in the polls nationally and in Western Australia, this by-election could be an attractive prospect.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 12,876 | 46.5 | -28.5 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 6,913 | 25.0 | +9.7 |
| Tamsyn Heynes | Greens | 2,439 | 8.8 | +5.3 |
| Liam Hall | One Nation | 2,332 | 8.4 | +6.3 |
| Jim Matters | Legalise Cannabis | 1,623 | 5.9 | +5.5 |
| Robert Burdett | Australian Christians | 755 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Elizabeth Storer | Animal Justice | 723 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Informal | 1,323 | 4.6 |
2024 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 17,011 | 61.5 | -19.8 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 10,630 | 38.5 | +19.8 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 60.7% in the south to 68.4% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.8% in the centre to 12.7% in the north.
One Nation came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 8.6% in the centre to 10.0% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 8.6 | 10.8 | 63.4 | 4,928 | 20.1 |
| South | 8.8 | 12.0 | 60.7 | 2,043 | 8.3 |
| North | 10.0 | 12.7 | 68.4 | 1,881 | 7.7 |
| Other votes | 11.0 | 10.2 | 57.6 | 8,701 | 35.4 |
| Pre-poll | 8.3 | 7.7 | 63.6 | 7,007 | 28.5 |
Election results in Secret Harbour at the 2025 Western Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Greens and One Nation.
Hi Ben,
Great preliminary analysis. I have had a look at your Canning 2025 federal election page ( https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/canning2025 ), which shows the 2022 and 2025 federal boundaries, and I’m not sure whether the green line on your Secret Harbour map here (above) might be the 2022 federal boundary? Regardless, Andrew Hastie MP will be following this one mighty closely. Cheers