Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Gareth Ward resigned from the Legislative Assembly on Friday 8 August minutes before the Assembly was due to expel him, after his conviction for a number of offences with the potential for lengthy prison sentences.
Margin – IND 0.8% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward, since 2011.
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
History
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Ward was re-elected in 2023 as an independent, narrowly holding on against Labor. Ward was later convicted of a number of offences in 2025. Ward went to court in August 2025 to block the NSW Legislative Assembly from expelling him from Parliament. After losing the case, Ward resigned from Parliament shortly before the Assembly was due to expel him.
Assessment
Gareth Ward had built up a very strong position in Kiama as a Liberal MP, but the seat has a history of being won by Labor prior to 2011. Labor came close to winning in 2023 against Ward. A by-election without Ward may turn into a more typical Labor-Liberal contest, but the circumstances of Ward’s departure may strengthen Labor’s position in such a contest.
It’s worth noting that exhausted votes played a big role in Labor coming so close in 2023, with many Liberal votes not flowing to Ward as preferences. If the Liberal vote unifies behind a Liberal candidate that won’t be such an issue.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 20,316 | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 18,010 | 34.4 | 6.2 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 6,301 | 12.0 | -41.6 |
| Tonia Gray | Greens | 5,833 | 11.1 | -0.7 |
| John Gill | Sustainable Australia | 1,911 | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 1,678 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
2023 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 23,018 | 50.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 22,329 | 49.2 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 24,564 | 69.7 | 31.7 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 10,665 | 30.3 | -31.7 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
Gareth Ward topped the primary vote in Shoalhaven and Kiama, although Labor did win the two-candidate-preferred count in Kiama. Labor won in Albion Park more comfortably.
In general, Kiama becomes more conservative as you head south, with Labor doing best at the northern end, which is effectively made up of suburbs of Wollongong, and least well at the southern end where the seat is made up of regional towns.
| Voter group | ALP prim | Ward prim | LIB prim | Total | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 27.7 | 39.8 | 11.7 | 10,756 | 19.9 |
| Kiama | 35.5 | 34.9 | 10.0 | 6,876 | 12.7 |
| Albion Park | 42.4 | 29.1 | 10.4 | 6,170 | 11.4 |
| Pre-poll | 33.9 | 40.7 | 11.3 | 21,631 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 30.6 | 35.3 | 14.7 | 8,616 | 15.9 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (independent Gareth Ward vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes (Labor vs Liberal) and primary votes for independent candidate Gareth Ward, Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Katelin McInerney will have the Labor pre-selection if she wants it.(There are personal considerations). Surely the Liberals have to make a serious effort to regain Kiama this time? Perhaps former 2022 Whitlam candidate & Kiama councillor Mike Cains is a strong possibility. Speaking of Whitlam, independent in May, Ben Britton is apparently sizing up a run. The Nationals have declared an intention to run. The Greens will run & surely this time their preferences will flow strongly to Labor. It was the significant leakage of Greens’ preferences in 2023 (compared to other seats) which delivered the seat to Ward. Given that he has resigned and has appealed his conviction, Ward could possibly re-contest himself?
Anyone care to estimate what Gareth Ward’s personal vote would be? It seems pretty sizable. It would not be in the best interest of the coalition for the Nats to run as the risk of vote leakage would be considerable.
Hi Ben. Could you please add information about Kiams’s Legislative Council vote and Ward voters’ two-party-preferred preference flows at the 2023 NSW state election? I think they will be useful in assessing how this by-election may go.