Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Gareth Ward resigned from the Legislative Assembly on Friday 8 August minutes before the Assembly was due to expel him, after his conviction for a number of offences with the potential for lengthy prison sentences.
Margin – IND 0.8% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward, since 2011.
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
History
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Ward was re-elected in 2023 as an independent, narrowly holding on against Labor. Ward was later convicted of a number of offences in 2025. Ward went to court in August 2025 to block the NSW Legislative Assembly from expelling him from Parliament. After losing the case, Ward resigned from Parliament shortly before the Assembly was due to expel him.
- Tonia Gray (Greens)
- Serena Copley (Liberal)
- Andrew Thaler (Independent)
- Roger Woodward (Independent)
- Don Fuggle (Legalise Cannabis)
- Ken Davis (Sustainable Australia)
- Lisa Cotton (Independent)
- Cyrille Jeufo Keuheu (Independent)
- Felix Nelson (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Joshua Beer (Libertarian)
- Ellie Robertson (Animal Justice)
- Kate Dezarnaulds (Independent)
- Katelin McInerney (Labor)
Assessment
Gareth Ward had built up a very strong position in Kiama as a Liberal MP, but the seat has a history of being won by Labor prior to 2011. Labor came close to winning in 2023 against Ward. A by-election without Ward may turn into a more typical Labor-Liberal contest, but the circumstances of Ward’s departure may strengthen Labor’s position in such a contest.
It’s worth noting that exhausted votes played a big role in Labor coming so close in 2023, with many Liberal votes not flowing to Ward as preferences. If the Liberal vote unifies behind a Liberal candidate that won’t be such an issue.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 20,316 | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 18,010 | 34.4 | 6.2 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 6,301 | 12.0 | -41.6 |
| Tonia Gray | Greens | 5,833 | 11.1 | -0.7 |
| John Gill | Sustainable Australia | 1,911 | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 1,678 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
2023 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 23,018 | 50.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 22,329 | 49.2 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 24,564 | 69.7 | 31.7 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 10,665 | 30.3 | -31.7 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
Gareth Ward topped the primary vote in Shoalhaven and Kiama, although Labor did win the two-candidate-preferred count in Kiama. Labor won in Albion Park more comfortably.
In general, Kiama becomes more conservative as you head south, with Labor doing best at the northern end, which is effectively made up of suburbs of Wollongong, and least well at the southern end where the seat is made up of regional towns.
| Voter group | ALP prim | Ward prim | LIB prim | Total | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 27.7 | 39.8 | 11.7 | 10,756 | 19.9 |
| Kiama | 35.5 | 34.9 | 10.0 | 6,876 | 12.7 |
| Albion Park | 42.4 | 29.1 | 10.4 | 6,170 | 11.4 |
| Pre-poll | 33.9 | 40.7 | 11.3 | 21,631 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 30.6 | 35.3 | 14.7 | 8,616 | 15.9 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (independent Gareth Ward vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes (Labor vs Liberal) and primary votes for independent candidate Gareth Ward, Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@roger the greens cannot win and neither can the liberals therefore the only one who can beat labor is Kate random letters. 7.5% at a federal election would translate to about 15% at state election. also by elections tend to favour minor and opposition parties due to the fact people arent voting to change the government. gareth wards voters would likely not go to the greens but would instead either go back to the libs or another minor party. i dont expect labors primary to improve much and think the deciding factor will probably be how many votes exhaust.
The Greens candidate is relatively strong but she lost her seat on Shoalhaven council.
I’m not sure what went so wrong for Greens in this part of the world, but by 2023 the incumbent Green mayor of Shoalhaven significantly underpolled her Labor ally on council in South Coast, by a lot, and then the Greens were completely wiped off the map at the next LGA elections.
Similarly, Greens had an amazing result for the Kiama council elections in 2021 (27% of the vote compared to 17% for Labor) but by 2024 the Greens vote fell to 15%, with neither of the 2021 councillors recontesting.
@Blue Not John – from what I heard, Amanda Findley when she was Shoalhaven mayor announced a huge rate hike (44% from memory?), which damaged the credibility of herself and the Shoalhaven Greens. You also have to consider that Findley was elected in 2016 due to the clashing conservative personalities on the South Coast, especially with then-Mayor Joanna Gash. I’d say Amanda Findley was re-elected comfortably as a result of the bushfires which like saw a surge in support for the Greens due to their environmental stances, but in 2024 when she had none of those factors present, alongside the fact she was retiring, the Green brand in this area would have been fatally damaged.
In 2020*
Was in Kiama and Gerringong today, here were my observations:
– Gerringong – very quiet though I did see a corflutes for the Greens on a house near the beach.
– Kiama – passed the Kiama Uniting Church pre-poll around 3pm, Labor had tons of corflutes and volunteers, Kate Dezarnaulds had a decent amount of corflutes. Liberal and Greens corflutes were scattered outside the church and I don’t recall seeing any volunteers for them.
My overall feeling is that Labor will gain here, but I really can’t tell what I think the margin will be. I think under 60% 2PP as the Liberal PV will surely improve considering they are actively running here compared to when they ran Melanie Gibbons in 2023 and were virtually AWOL. Thinking they are focusing on the Shoalhaven end of the electorate as Serena Copley is from there, while Labor is focusing on Kiama for the same reason.
@John: 7.5% does not translate into 15% because Dezarnaulds was only marginally stronger in Kiama part of Gilmore. eg she got 15% of vote in Milton?
& she is totally unknown in Albion Park/ Rail which is not in Gilmore & a significant part of Kiama.
Green vote in Albion Park/Rail is a solid 10 – 12% come what may. Tonia Gray or Freda Fart or Long Dead Smelly Horse; it will not matter. The Greens have a solid & local presence at AP pre-poll & on booths. Like Labor, they know their voters & their voters know them! Incidentally Green preferences at AP will significantly leak to Labor before Dezarnaulds for the same reason.
It amazes me why the Greens don’t contest Shellharbour Council? Possibly because the Saleba redistribution of 2 with proportional representation shuts them out?
Liberals will finish second & have no one’s preferences. Even in AP there is a significant sneaky Liberal vote & while they are lying shamelessly doggo, on the night they will be there.
Call of the card
Labor; Liberal; informal; Green; Dezarnaulds & put down the glasses.
@James Labor is focussing not just on Kiama But heavily on AP which they convincingly won last time.
@Roger Roughead – I assumed that on the basis of @Daniel’s comment as he said that the ALP had a heavy presence in Albion Park and Jamberoo. Was going off of my own personal observations as I don’t believe anyone else here has stated it.
(The comment was on Page 1 of the comments section here if you are looking for it, I don’t know how to generate the link to get to specific comments. If someone here knows how to that would be greatly appreciated.)
If you look at the primary vote at early voting centres during the 2023 election, the splits were:
Albion Park (Gareth/Katelin) 36%/42%
Kiama (Gareth/Katelin) 42%/33%
Nowra (Gareth/Katelin) 47%/27%
Albion Park area is set for Labor already, Kiama and Nowra is where Labor needs more voter support based on the 2023 result.
Tonia Gray has pretty well even support across the board, as does Serena Copley based on the Liberal vote last time round, it was mainly the contest between Gareth and Katelin that went up and down like a yoyo depending on areas.
Similar voting patterns on election day too
The Kiama LGA plus Berry and Kangaroo Valley have a sea or tree change demographic. They’re quite touristy and are teal-leaning. It might explain the high vote for Ward last election as many voters couldn’t fit into either political bucket and Ward was the non-partisan option.
Nowra-Bomaderry, being inland, both feel more like a country town. There was probably some tactical voting for Ward as the Liberal candidate was a parachute and there was an anti-Liberal sentiment statewide.
@Votante: what explains the high vote for Ward last time was that part of the electorates disrespect for law enforcement. The electorate has some quasi sovereign citizens too. His slogan was “presumption of innocence” & the electorate said “sure, politicians get charged with sexual intercourse with minors every week by police, so let give him the presumption!” There are shocking photos of locals at Jamberoo JRLFC, Albion Park shopping centre & Nowra bridge openly allowing Ward to be photographed with their innocent children for campaign purposes. There was no tactical voting for Ward; from the start It was Ward or McInerney. The only tactical voting was the Liberal voters drift, here & there, to McInerney.
PS Nowra is normally a solid Labor town
6 News reported an ALP internal poll for Kiama (1-5 Sep | n=1600 | MoE ±2% | +/- 2023):
Katelin McInerney (ALP): 39.6% (+5.2%)
Serena Copley (LIB): 27.1% (+15.1%)
Tonia Gray (GRN): 10.4% (-0.7%)
Others (inlucidng Kate Dezarnaulds): 22.9%
TPP:
ALP: 59.4%
LIB: 40.6%
I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual result is similar to this.
Given that the seat was around 10 points left of the state average before Ward was the MP, this isn’t too bad for the Liberals.
So there’s hope for Kate if she’s able to scoop up enough preferences to get over the greens
Today is the day. Labor look like the more likely party to win but I wouldn’t rule out a Liberal gain either.
The sample size of 1600 is pretty huge for a state seat. I don’t think I’ve seen a federal seat poll with that many and federal seats are much larger.
@Roger, Nowra is a Labor-voting town. Much of Nowra isn’t in this seat.
@np the thing that will help Labor win is OPV. If it were FPV Kate might have been a chance
Nowra east traditionally leans ALP, the rest of it does not. Nowra East is not in Kiama.
I, for one, would like to see a Kate v Kate 2CP. Kate Dezarnaulds is recommending a complete ballot. It looks like the Liberals are single-shotting, but I would assume they would preference Dez over McInerney. Andrew Thaler is also not preferencing. The Greens are preferencing Dez over McInerney. It will be among the more interesting ballot reports, but I expect a fairly comfortable Labor victory if it is Lab v Lib.
The thing that will hurt dez is the opv. With it she would probably win but I imagine if it’s kate vs Kate there will be alot of exhaustion from the libs and other minors
As we saw federally a 40% primary is not enough to be beat a teal. Labor barely scrapped by in Bean against 60% opposition directing preferences against it and in Fremantle Labor only won thanks to ONP preferencong Labor of the teal. If there was FPV here and the teal made the count shed probs my win
And there we have it folks, Katelin McInerney will be elected as our new representative for Kiama