Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Gareth Ward resigned from the Legislative Assembly on Friday 8 August minutes before the Assembly was due to expel him, after his conviction for a number of offences with the potential for lengthy prison sentences.
Margin – IND 0.8% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward, since 2011.
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
History
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Ward was re-elected in 2023 as an independent, narrowly holding on against Labor. Ward was later convicted of a number of offences in 2025. Ward went to court in August 2025 to block the NSW Legislative Assembly from expelling him from Parliament. After losing the case, Ward resigned from Parliament shortly before the Assembly was due to expel him.
- Serena Copley (Liberal)
- Kate Dezarnaulds (Independent)
- Tonia Gray (Greens)
- Katelin McInerney (Labor)
Assessment
Gareth Ward had built up a very strong position in Kiama as a Liberal MP, but the seat has a history of being won by Labor prior to 2011. Labor came close to winning in 2023 against Ward. A by-election without Ward may turn into a more typical Labor-Liberal contest, but the circumstances of Ward’s departure may strengthen Labor’s position in such a contest.
It’s worth noting that exhausted votes played a big role in Labor coming so close in 2023, with many Liberal votes not flowing to Ward as preferences. If the Liberal vote unifies behind a Liberal candidate that won’t be such an issue.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 20,316 | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 18,010 | 34.4 | 6.2 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 6,301 | 12.0 | -41.6 |
| Tonia Gray | Greens | 5,833 | 11.1 | -0.7 |
| John Gill | Sustainable Australia | 1,911 | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 1,678 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
2023 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Gareth Ward | Independent | 23,018 | 50.8 |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 22,329 | 49.2 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katelin McInerney | Labor | 24,564 | 69.7 | 31.7 |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 10,665 | 30.3 | -31.7 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
Gareth Ward topped the primary vote in Shoalhaven and Kiama, although Labor did win the two-candidate-preferred count in Kiama. Labor won in Albion Park more comfortably.
In general, Kiama becomes more conservative as you head south, with Labor doing best at the northern end, which is effectively made up of suburbs of Wollongong, and least well at the southern end where the seat is made up of regional towns.
| Voter group | ALP prim | Ward prim | LIB prim | Total | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 27.7 | 39.8 | 11.7 | 10,756 | 19.9 |
| Kiama | 35.5 | 34.9 | 10.0 | 6,876 | 12.7 |
| Albion Park | 42.4 | 29.1 | 10.4 | 6,170 | 11.4 |
| Pre-poll | 33.9 | 40.7 | 11.3 | 21,631 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 30.6 | 35.3 | 14.7 | 8,616 | 15.9 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (independent Gareth Ward vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes (Labor vs Liberal) and primary votes for independent candidate Gareth Ward, Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@John, Libs and Nats both contested in Wagga Wagga in 2023.
@Votante – Wagga Wagga 2018 is an interesting case study for Kiama. A disgraced MP resigns, and the incumbent party suffers a big swing. Centristish independent comes up the middle and gets elected off preferences. That said, the incumbent candidate was the prohibitive favourite in Wagga Wagga in 2023 when both the Libs and Nats ran. I am not sure they were competing against each other in a meaningful way. The Nat candidate came in 2nd and the Liberal candidate came in 4th, but the spread was ~700 votes. The 2CP margin was 45 points. It wasn’t even competitive.
Im unsure why the libs and nats both contested in Wagga as there is a general view that seats divided up. Tye same reason we have seen the Nats try and fail at regaining both Ballina at tla state level and Richmond federally. I think once McGirr retires the Nats will win Wagga and the libs wil continurle to hold Port Macquarie. It will be interesting to see what happens in both seats in 2027.
@votante I’m unsure as to why but you’d imagine some kind of deal will be reached according to Wikipedia the nats won the 2pp against Labor (notional)
Katelin McInerney announced as Labor candidate.
Upper Hunter was the seat with a own goal by the sitting nat member…. that some how got away.
Why?
Gladys the premier was pre icac very popular. There was actually a 3% swing to
The nats.
Despite boundary changes the sitting nat mp has developed a personal vote.
The last sentence refers to the current sitting mp who won the by election
Based on this ABC article, the Nationals appear to have dropped out of the contest here, and it is said the Liberals are likely to field former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley, and the Greens are likely to also field a former Shoalhaven councillor, Tonia Gray, who ran here in 2023.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-14/kiama-by-election-2025-ward-resignation/105651370
About Wagga Wagga, the Liberals held it continuously for over 60 years until 2018 when Joe McGirr won it. I guess that’s why the Liberals got involved in 2023 due to its long association.
Regarding Kiama, I think that if the Liberals had sat out, the independent would then had a better chance of beating Labor as Liberal and Green voters would vote tactically for the independent. I note that the Liberals are running. The very short and sudden election campaign might also disadvantage the independent especially in terms of getting human resources and financing.
@votante that didnt stop the independent running and winning in Pittwater. A defeat here could be disastrou for labor. And would likely be benficial to the libs federally in Gilmore
@Darth Vader, an independent won Pittwater though Labor and the Greens both abstained. She was the only choice for tactical Labor and Green voters. In Kiama, Labor and the Liberals and likely the Greens will be contesting.
She would of won regardless due to the circumstances. the teal/independent will likely beat the Greens on PRIMARY vote at the very least. And Greens preferences will probably push her above the Liberals. Those who voted Ward will probably go back mostly to the Liberals and the Teal for those not wanting to vote Labor.
Not to mention now Labor voters have someone else to choose from other then the Liberals and a member who they may not have wanted to vote for because of his links to the Liberal Party and those who did want to vote Ward for the obvious reasons.
As I alluded to yesterday, it was confirmed today by Opposition Leader Mark Speakman that former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley will be the Liberal candidate for the Kiama by-election.
Additionally, the University of Wollongong’s Liberal Club has expelled Gareth Ward from being a member of the club, and the Greens will announce their candidate for the by-election on Monday.
Why was he a UOW Liberal Club member when he was sitting as an independent MP?
Because while the cahrges were pending he was afforded the presumption of innocence so that the door was open for him to sit as a liberal mp if the charges fell through
Given OPV in NSW I am most curious how previous Ward voters behave. His exhaustion rate in 2023 was 69%. Most will vote Liberal primary but will they all?
Doubtful his previous voters will likely split between the ind and the libs
Votentate
Sounds like Nobody had challenged Ward’s membership. Having stood against an endorsed Liberal candidate at the general election, he was ineligible to be a member of any branch of the Liberal Party. As to why, I guess they saw some advantage in having possible access to some of his privileges, such as office facilities.
So far all four candidates are female. Will be interesting to see who wins though since again it could boost Labor’s majority or it could get the Liberals their 36th seat back.
I highly doubt the liberals can win. They only won the seat because of labors fall in 2011 and it was only Gareth wards personal vote that has held the seat since. Labor has no majority and this would not get them back to majority either.
Liberals are rank outsiders and although Minns claims this area is ‘independent minded’ I don’t think in practice that amounts to the teal candidate appealing to a critical mass of voters here. Just can’t see Labor’s vote slipping under 35% or the Liberals falling to third place.
Think Speakman is guiding the Liberals to an interesting position where they may be able to limit the preference flow from progressive voters to Labor due to Minns’ radical centrism and thus manage to save the furniture and possibly remain competitive in Labor’s marginals come 2027 (a status quo result would be a pretty good result for them from here unless Minns really stuffs something up in the meantime). I wondered if the Nats (who have clearly gone more down the right wing path and are anti net-zero now) would have actually been the more ideal coalition party to try and appeal to Labor’s more ancestral voters in the Albion Park area, although the Liberals are likely a better fit for Kiama itself perhaps.
@Maxim the NSW Nationals don’t oppose net zero
The state conference voted for a motion to oppose it earlier this year, I don’t know how that has played out in terms of the parliamentary wing of the party
Maxim I can see the ind scooping up a large amount of Wards vote. And suppressing the Labor and greens vote to make it a Labor vs ind contest.
Greens have confirmed their 2023 candidate and former Shoalhaven councillor Tonia Gray as their candidate for this by-election.
These boundaries need fixing I reckon losing Wollongong altogether. And taking in more of Shellharbour is the bare minimum. Possibly retracting to the river in Shoalhaven too
With Katelin Mcinerney running again, I think Labor will get across the line this time. The primary vote in 2023 had Gareth at 53.41%, Katelin at 46.59%, after preferences were counted that balanced out to 50.8% to Gareth and 49.2% to Katelin, bringing her within just 1% and 615 votes of winning last time. It came down to the very last counts. I don’t think it would take too much to secure the extra preference votes to get them over that 50%
Daniel last time liberals had a just vote 1 and this resulted in a heap of votes exhausting. I believe they didn’t want to preference anyone as they had issue with being seen supporting Wward and didn’t want to help out Labor either. This time I think they will and should preference the teal because she is a far better alternative then Labor and it ties her up from running in Gilmore again if she’s elected here and then rejected in 2027.
looks like ward had his strongest support in the retirement home regions. I assume that they will go back to voting for the libs
Liberals could have prevented this by election… but they did not…..vote 1 strategy
Why woukd they give Labor an extra seat? Reme.ber in 2023 Ward wasnt guilty of anyhting. Its not the liberals job to hand seats to Labor.
A few more candidates have been announced for the Kiama by-election:
– SFF: Felix Nelson – land manager and army veteran
– Family First: Kyle Napoleoni – video editor
– Independent: Andrew Thaler – Snowy-Monaro councillor and perennial candidate
– Libertarian: Joshua Beer – Liberal candidate for Lake Macquarie in 2023
– Legalise Cannabis: Don Fuggle – activist
– Sustainable Australia: Ken David – mental health professional
Also a question for any locals, who seems to be running the strongest campaign so far? As someone from Sydney, judging off social media, Labor looks to be in the box seat.
by elections are usually a good time for minor parties and inds to get a foot in the door. as it wont change the government people generally vote for others. Kate might have a chance to get in. it will depend how well the libs do. and preferences and of course the OPV is antoher factor
@James, I see you lifted that off Wikipedia. Some things to note, quite a few have been candidates before, with the following missing from the Wikipedia list. Don Fuggle was a candidate at the 2023 NSW State Election on the Legalise Cannabis LegCo Group at position 14. Ken (Kenneth) Davis was the Sustainable Australia candidate for the Electorate of Shellharbour at the 2019 and 2023 NSW State Elections.
Andrew Thaler ran for the Electorate of Monaro at the 2019, 2022 BY and 2023 NSW State Elections. His peak was 6.32% (2,986) at the 2022 BY. Also 2022 and 2025 Federal Elections for the corresponding seat of Eden-Monaro. Unusual for his move to try Kiama.
So that’s 6/10 candidates who ran in the 2023 election. Can anyone explain to me about Joshua Beer? Liberal for Port Mac in 2023 and now Libertarian for here in 2025.