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While I think it’s possible that Labor could lose this there are a couple of reasons why they might not. Firstly the boundaries which didn’t assist Adam Bandt are more favourable to Labor and Its a large part that led to Green losing here. Secondly, Adam Bandt isn’t contesting this seat so what ever personal vote he had will go with now. Thirdly, lack of affordability which has lead tom young people moving back home or further out which can see the Greens improving in area where they didn’t need to as they were not remotely competitive. Finally, depending how effective Sarah Witty is a local member she could get a sophemore surge. However, given Labor’s perceived weak environmental laws and the enormous amount of seat they’ll be defending this seat could fallen if there is an anti-labor swing. Overall I’d put this seat as a tossup and wait until its closer to the election to give a call as it could go either way.
The Victoria Street Divide is interesting. It is much harder for Greens to win a GRN V ALP contest compared to GRN V LIB. Remember if Libs did not preference Greens in 2010 Bandt would not have won. Also Sarah Witty will probably be more liked than Khalil and Plibasek has never been under threat so maybe Sarah Witty can be a Plibasek.
Agree the increasing unaffordability of housing in the CBD and surrounds is making many young students and workers in their 20s and 30s move to areas further out with cheaper rents or back home with their parents. It makes the Greens less competitive in areas like here while Labor is the main beneficiary (or the Libs in the Prahran by-election). The Libs actually got a small primary vote swing to them in this seat last election which is pretty astonishing since this is one of the most anti-Dutton seats in the country. This is also making seats like Fraser and Wills much more competitive for the Greens and helping Labor win big in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne where the Libs need to win back seats since young people who would have moved out of home and rent in the city and been voting for the Greens in the past here are now voting for the Greens and preferencing Labor in the same electorate as their parents.
@Dan M the swing in primaries can probably be attributed to the redistribution where the Fawkner Park/South Yarra booths were added and they can swing between all three without a certain pattern.
The Greens primary vote suffered a drop that was almost exactly matched by the swing to Labor, which combined with extremely unfriendly preference flows helped Labor over. Demographic changes in the CBD and surrounds will make it better for Labor given that the hippies will most likely move to the outer suburbs or Brunswick/Northcote/Preston/Footscray.
If Gabrielle De Vitri loses in Richmond next year then I would probably bet that she could be in contention to contest Melbourne against Witty. Unless the Greens get a high profile candidate like Ratnam then I’m willing to predict Labor hold for now.
The LIB –> ALP preference flow was very high here. Nearly 80% of Liberal preferences went Labor’s way, a flow 5% higher than in neighbouring Wills.