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This seat is the only Eastern Suburbs seat that Labor won in 2010 and 2014. As there are fewer Eastern Suburbs seats today than 2010 Libs need this one. This seat has more Liberal friendly boundaries than during the Bracks years but Labor has a better margin today than they did in 2006. This area is socially progressive, irreligious and is probably the safest seat in terms of crime rates.
This is the only seat in outer metro Melbourne where I could see the Greens second place.
@ SpaceFish, The Greens come second in many of the Dandenong booths but they dont do well in Suburban areas (Knox council), Strong Liberal areas (Seville, Silvan and Narre Warren East). Also even if there is a 6% swing from ALP to LIB which is better than 2010 it will not put Greens in second place or knock Labor out of the 2CP. It is unlikely that Centrist voters who are unhappy about debt etc will swing to Greens.
Clare Fitzmaurice is the Liberal candidate for Monbulk, she is a staffer for Anne Webster which interesting as she is a member of Liberal Party but works for National Party I’m not entirely sure if she’s a local but it shows you how desperate the Liberals are to get a candidate.
I wonder if the Libs were hurt here last time by having a candidate – Gareth Ward – with the same name as the former NSW MP who has now been jailed for sex offences. People may have googled him and the wrong person came up but they didnt read further. I can see both Greens and ON doing well here. It could get messy.