ALP 7.6%
Incumbent MP
Daniela De Martino, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Monbulk covers suburbs in the outer east of Melbourne, and in the Dandenong Range, including Ferny Creek, Macclesfield, Menzies Creek, Monbulk, Montrose, Mt Dandenong, Olinda, Sassafras, Selby, Tecoma and Upwey. The electorate covers the south-western corner of the Yarra Ranges Shire, and a small part of the City of Knox.
History
Monbulk was first created at the 1967 election. The seat had alternated between being held by the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but has been in Labor hands for the last two decades.
The seat was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Bill Borthwick. He had previously held the seat of Scoresby since a 1960 by-election. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1967 until 1982, serving as Deputy Premier from 1981 until his defeat in 1982.
Borthwick was defeated by the ALP’s Neil Pope in 1982. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1988 to 1992, when he was defeated by Steve McArthur of the Liberal Party. McArthur was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he suffered a 10.8% swing against him and lost his seat to the ALP’s James Merlino.
Merlino held Monbulk for the next twenty years. James Merlino served as a junior minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010. He became Deputy Premier when Labor returned to power in 2014. Merlino stepped down from his ministerial roles in June 2022, and retired at the November 2022 election.
Labor candidate Daniela De Martino won Monbulk at the 2022 state election.
- Merran Blair (Greens)
- Daniela De Martino (Labor)
- Clare Fitzmaurice (Liberal)
- Alyssa Wormald (Animal Justice)
Assessment
This seat could be vulnerable to either the Liberal Party or One Nation.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Daniela De Martino | Labor | 15,071 | 36.1 | -6.0 |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 12,327 | 29.5 | -8.1 |
| Michael Ormsby | Greens | 6,255 | 15.0 | -1.2 |
| Johanna Skelton | Independent | 2,229 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
| Craig Cole | Independent | 2,069 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Leah Folloni | Animal Justice | 1,739 | 4.2 | +4.0 |
| David Higgins | Family First | 1,197 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Veronica Barnes | Freedom Party | 910 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Informal | 2,063 | 4.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Daniela De Martino | Labor | 24,056 | 57.6 | +0.5 |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 17,741 | 42.4 | -0.5 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.2% in the east to 63.2% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.5% in the east to 19.5% in the north-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 17.6 | 63.2 | 10,886 | 26.0 |
| East | 13.5 | 54.2 | 5,589 | 13.4 |
| North-West | 19.5 | 62.8 | 2,012 | 4.8 |
| Pre-poll | 13.6 | 55.9 | 15,634 | 37.4 |
| Other votes | 13.8 | 54.1 | 7,736 | 18.5 |
Election results in Monbulk at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat is the only Eastern Suburbs seat that Labor won in 2010 and 2014. As there are fewer Eastern Suburbs seats today than 2010 Libs need this one. This seat has more Liberal friendly boundaries than during the Bracks years but Labor has a better margin today than they did in 2006. This area is socially progressive, irreligious and is probably the safest seat in terms of crime rates.
This is the only seat in outer metro Melbourne where I could see the Greens second place.
@ SpaceFish, The Greens come second in many of the Dandenong booths but they dont do well in Suburban areas (Knox council), Strong Liberal areas (Seville, Silvan and Narre Warren East). Also even if there is a 6% swing from ALP to LIB which is better than 2010 it will not put Greens in second place or knock Labor out of the 2CP. It is unlikely that Centrist voters who are unhappy about debt etc will swing to Greens.
Clare Fitzmaurice is the Liberal candidate for Monbulk, she is a staffer for Anne Webster which interesting as she is a member of Liberal Party but works for National Party I’m not entirely sure if she’s a local but it shows you how desperate the Liberals are to get a candidate.
I wonder if the Libs were hurt here last time by having a candidate – Gareth Ward – with the same name as the former NSW MP who has now been jailed for sex offences. People may have googled him and the wrong person came up but they didnt read further. I can see both Greens and ON doing well here. It could get messy.
@ Reidstributed. Last time therre were actually swings against Labor in the booths that were already in Monbulk in 2018 due to loss of James Merlino personal vote. However, what helped Labor is that Labor got swings TO them in the booths which are in Knox council that were moved into the electorate from Bayswater and the abolished Ferntree Gully. This is due to change in effort level as you have often correcly pointed out. While Greens and ONP will do well here they will do well in different areas. I dont think there are Red One Nation/White Working class voters here this is more like the Federal seat of Macquarie the higher the elevation and the more Forested it it is the Progressive vote increases as you go to lower altituide agricultural areas it becomes more Conservative so in a seat like this i think the ONP will come from Libs and very little from Labor.
If Wilson is indeed appealing well to the more higher income professional class then that could have some implications along the Tecoma-Belgrave corridor in particular, Labor don’t benefit from any pockets of diversity in this seat, but there is most definitely a more progressive tilt to the area being a tourism/alternative lifestyle area with environmental sensitivities. With proper campaign effort the Liberals are potentially a shot here but depends how well the sitting MP has worked the little towns/villages here
@ Maxim
I agree Wilson will appeal more to Tealish higher income Professional class which is why i agree with you to watch out for Eltham. I also agree that Monbulk, Eltham, Macedon and Bellarine 4 seats that Libs missed out in 2010 have virtually no ethnic diversity which Labor can rely on like Narre Warrens and Cranbourne.
Regarding the Belgrave-Upwey rail corridor i agree there can be a swing but even in 2010 under Ted Ballieu Labor won those booths comfortably eventhough you can correctly say on current boundaries Libs actually won Monbulk in 2010.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2010/monb2010
This shows Booth results based on 2010 results wrong link above.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2014/monbulk2014