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There was no Labor candidate here last time so I would be interested to see how well they do long the Princess Hwy booths.
Labor has strength is the small township of Erica. However, this seat is unwinnable these days all of the La Trobe valley has moved out and the seat has moved West. Unlike Monash, there is coastal townships with tree changers.
Drouin-Warragul are moe marginal. However, it is probably not worth the effort for Labor to win it. In a future election subject to boundaries Labor can target Croydon and Polwarth.However, Morwell and Narracan are two seats that Labor won in 2002 they will probably never win back.
This is one to watch because of the potential One Nation surge.
The seat used to be more Labor-friendly than the state average but has shifted conservative over many election cycles. It is now out of reach for Labor.
I think along the Princes Highway, between Bunyip and Moe, there is a sizeable ‘red’ One Nation vote. They are historically Labor-voting and likely to work in manual labour or as tradies but will vote One Nation. These include those who voted Labor last election but can’t bring themselves to vote Liberal.
@ Votante
I disagree it is not the same seat that Bracks one twice. Each of the redistributions (2002, 2014 and 2022) improved for the Liberals as each time the seat moved West and progressively lost the La Trobe valley to the point there is none of it left. Once you get into Moe the demographics change dramstically. Drouin-Warrugul are bit more marginal as it more urbanised. On current boundaries i am not sure if the Libs would have won it even in 2002. So i dont really feel Narracan has changed except boundaries and consquenly level of effort. Morwell on the other hand is probably the one seat i can say for show has shifted right over the last 20 years. We can see overalapping Federal electorates (Monash/Gippsland) show same trend.