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Alex Dyson has a better chance winning this state seat rather than the federal seat of Wannon
The redistributions in 2022 helped the Liberals here significantly.
I think Alex Dyson would do better in Polwarth because it is electorally ‘Greener’ than South West Coast. His hometown is in South West Coast though.
The problem with community independents such as Alex Dyson and others that ran in May is that they need to stand for more than ‘I am local and I’m nice’. Also the problem with someone like Alex Dyson running is that they have already run three times and couldn’t win – a state runs starts to look a tad desperate. He wouldn’t get the gig for a 4th time if he was in a major party.
@Redistributed.
I agree that Alex Dyson has had his run – three to be exact. Over-campaigning and desperation are detrimental. Many independents like Alex Dyson had a generic ‘independent therefore good’ platform or a cliche ‘sick of the major parties’ platform. He would be a better fit for Polwarth than for South West Coast though I wouldn’t bet on him winning if he were running.
No Portland and Warrnambool are Dyson ‘s base…..look at the votes.
But sitting liberal mp has a personal vote
Can imagine ONP might do reasonably well in Portland where there is more of a working class base, but otherwise there seems to be a reasonably loyal Liberal vote along Victoria’s SW coast that I think makes this seat one of ONP’s unlikeliest targets, decent chance this remains a classic contest that the Libs win by 15% or so given statewide trends, Labor would do well to win a single booth this time round