Geelong – Victoria 2026

Labor hold, tree changers will assist Labor to hold on.

Agree with SpaceFish this used to be a competative seat that followed state trend although i would say sea changers not tree changers given the geography

You never know Nimalan, I’m sure there are trees in Geelong /s

@ Clarinet of communists fair point

@Clarinet of Communists – 😂😂😂

The Geelong area is crying out for a redistribution to hopefully fix up the boundaries here

Geelong is fast becoming a city of public servants and commuters who are very friendly to Labor, definitely not the right kind of gentrification for the Liberals. We sometimes talk here about lockdown anger artificially pulling down Labor margins but here I suspect the opposite effect may have occurred with Labor easily winning booths in affluent areas such as Newtown

@ Maxim,
I agree the boundaries are awful and need to be fixed. I agree with the gentrification changes have not assisted Labor and have basically enabled Labor to hold on comfortably.

I have just had a look on where the One Nation vote might be based on an (admittedly crude) extrapolation from the Federal election results where One Nation had a statewide vote of 5.59%. The latest opinion poll has ON at 11% for Victoria so the vote is roughly double at each booth. I only looked at Outer Metropolitan and regional electorates. On this crude basis of taking the booth vote vote from May and doubling, I would be extremely worried if I was the ALP, much more so than the Coalition unless ON did something like preference against the incumbents etc.
On this basis, there are lots of booths in Ballarat and Geelong where the One Nation vote would be over 30%. This would likely push the Libs into third and they would likely preference ON. On this basis, seats like Geelong, Lara, Wendouree and Eureka could be One Nation pickups.
As the Victorian Nationals are well entrenched an d have a good ground game, it would seem that they can stay in first place or even in second place with Labor and the Greens behind. The latter two could not preference One Nation so would have to send their preferences to the Nats so the Nats are probably safe in these seats.
Morwell would be the seat where the Nats are probably most at risk if they ended up third behind ON and the ALP – probably unlikely as they are the incumbent.
The other seat that could be interesting is Bass as there is a seeming ON ripe pocket around Koo Wee Rup and Tooradin and that could exist further south around Wonthaggi but hard to see as there were too many alternatives in the Monash race.

@ Redistrubuted
I feel Geelong has gentrified and become more progresisive Northern Geelong may have ONP support as it is industrialised/working class. So Lara is an outside chance but not winnable for Libs
A few other areas i think ONP will be strong Sunbury- a bit of a tradie Anglo middle class area like Camden
Niddrie-i think a lot of support from second and third generation Italians
parts of Yan Yean-semi-rural areas as well more Tradie suburbs
I dont think National held seats in Victoria are under threat but Liberal held rural seats like Narracan maybe