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Berowra, at the last two elections, had above-average swings to Labor. Berowra used to be a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. The gap between the Liberal 2PP and the statewide Coalition 2PP has shrunk significantly over the election cycles.
Hornsby (the main commercial centre) is trending towards Labor. There are teal-ish areas along the eastern edge of the electorate i.e. along Pennant Hills Road and the Northern (Train) Line as well as the Pacific Motorway. The more western, semi-rural areas are where the Liberal vote is holding up.
This is another seat that the Liberals will lose for dumping net zero.
Interestingly Berowra and Goldstein are the only 2 seats left that voted for the Republic that the Liberals still have. Goldstein is the only one left that voted for the Voice.
I wonder if Julian Leeser will walk away from the Liberal Party? He has shown himself to be principled.
I have great personal respect for Julian Leeser if i lived in Sydney i probably will live in either this seat or Mitchell as they are the most simmilar to my seat of Menzies. I would be torn as i would like him as my MP but cannot vote for a party which is more ONP lite these days or worse a DLP style party. I had the same dilemma with Keith Wolahan who i personally liked but Dutton was too toxic.
Moderates are allowed to say Net Zero is a “welcome outcome” what is that?
Leeser seems to be like Matt Kean, the former Liberal state member for Hornsby who was a moderate and stood firm on his principles. I wonder if Leeser may eventually defect from the Liberals and recontest his seat as an independent in 2028, similar to current ex Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee.
@SpaceFish: With the Liberals having dumped net zero target, Labor could win Berowra in 2028 if they run a targeted campaign, especially if Sussan Ley is replaced as Liberal leader by a more right-wing Liberal such as Hastie or Taylor or if Ley adopts right-wing populism to appease the conservatives. If independent Tina Brown does not run again, a targeted Labor campaign could win over most of Brown’s voters and boost Labor’s primary vote into the high 30s and be well placed to win.
@Joseph, I agree with Labor’s possibility of picking up the seat but this also depends on Labor’s popularity in 2028. This could be a longer-term Labor target since Hornsby LGA and Epping are trending politically left (away from the Liberals). Historically, Berowra was a blue-ribbon, safe Liberal seat.
I mentioned earlier that there is a teal-ish demographic especially towards the south and eastern edge of the seat. Julian Leeser’s personal vote (and moderate nature) might’ve saved him in 2025. However, moderate, small-l Liberal voters who held their noses to vote Liberal may not do so again.