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Labor hold, I don’t see Labor losing this.
If someone like cr Eddy Kontelj got talked into running for the Liberals (unlikely) and they had a good year it might get close, over time the area is gentrifying and there is the potential for the slavic communities in Bell Post Hill etc to continue moving right, however the Labor vote is very strong in Norlane and Corio and urbanisation around Lara is probably more friendly to them. The Liberals don’t lift a finger in these parts – ran some ex-staffer from Burwood last time whereas Ella actually worked the campaign pretty hard and Eren was visible during the campaign too (I was a candidate here in 2022 as well)
I think this seat is probably going to be competitive for One Nation. It is Victoria analogy for the SA seat of Elizabeth being:
– Heavily White Working Class being Heavily Anglo although a sizeable Croatian Community, high proportion of public housing and a rust belt being formerly home to the Ford Factory plant just like Elizabeth (but the latter had a Holden plant)
– Although heavily Anglo, there has been a sizeable recent influx of working class non-white CALD which I commented in a previous post the “low contact intergroup threat” meaning within working class suburbs, the increases non-whites actually increases resentment to them (meaning the higher percentage of Non-whites increases to a certain point before it declines again by the CALD vote). Elizabeth and Lara non-white CALD percentages are actually similar.
@Mark,
I concur, like Elizabeth what will save Labor here will be the margin.
Sorry auto correct @Marh not mark