ALP 15.5%
Incumbent MP
Kathleen Matthews-Ward, since 2022.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Broadmeadows covers the southern end of Hume council and the northern end of Moreland council. The seat covers the suburbs of Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Coolaroo, Dallas, Fawkner, Glenroy, Hadfield, Jacana, Oak Park and parts of Glenroy and Westmeadows.
History
Broadmeadows was first created at the 1955 election, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1962.
The seat was first won in 1955 by the Liberal Party’s Harry Kane. He held the seat until his death in 1962.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s John Wilton. Wilton held the seat from 1962 until his retirement at the 1985 election.
In 1985, sitting Member for Glenroy Jack Culpin moved to Broadmeadows after his previous district was abolished. Culpin held the seat for one term.
In 1988, Jim Kennan moved from the Thomastown Legislative Council seat to Broadmeadows. He became Deputy Premier in 1990 and became Leader of the Opposition following the ALP’s election defeat in 1992.
Kennan resigned from Parliament in June 1993. The ensuing by-election was won by John Brumby, who had been Legislative Council member for Doutta Galla since another by-election in March the same year.
Brumby had been elected Leader of the Victorian ALP following Kennan’s resignation before his move to the Legislative Assembly. Brumby served as Labor leader until March 1999, when he stepped down in favour of Steve Bracks.
Brumby served as a senior minister in the Bracks government, serving as Assistant Treasurer (with Bracks himself as Treasurer) until he was appointed Treasurer in 2000. In 2007, Brumby was elected Labor leader and Premier following Steve Bracks’ retirement.
John Brumby led the ALP to the 2010 election, when the party narrowly lost power. Brumby resigned shortly after the election, and the 2011 by-election was won by Labor candidate Frank McGuire. McGuire was re-elected in 2014 and 2018 and retired in 2022.
Labor candidate Kathleen Matthews-Ward won Broadmeadows in 2022.
- Sue Bolton (Socialist Alliance)
- Candace Feild (Animal Justice)
- Kathleen Matthews-Ward (Labor)
- Maryam Nasim (Greens)
- Mutullah Can Yolbulan (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
Broadmeadows is the kind of seat where Labor is relatively strong and they are likely to retain the seat. One Nation may do well here but they will struggle to be strong enough to win the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kathleen Matthews-Ward | Labor | 15,899 | 45.7 | -10.8 |
| Baris Duzova | Liberal | 8,044 | 23.1 | +8.0 |
| Joe Aguilus | Greens | 2,908 | 8.4 | +0.5 |
| Omar Hassan | Victorian Socialists | 2,795 | 8.0 | +3.2 |
| Bienne Tam | Family First | 1,611 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Mohamad Elmustapha | Independent | 1,316 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Candace Feild | Animal Justice | 1,030 | 3.0 | +2.3 |
| Ben Sutter | Reason | 815 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Arie Huybregts | Independent | 362 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 4,198 | 10.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kathleen Matthews-Ward | Labor | 22,781 | 65.5 | -9.7 |
| Baris Duzova | Liberal | 11,999 | 34.5 | +9.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.8% in the north to 67.5% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 63.8 | 4,415 | 12.5 |
| South-West | 67.5 | 4,182 | 11.9 |
| South-East | 66.7 | 4,137 | 11.7 |
| Pre-poll | 65.0 | 15,824 | 44.9 |
| Other votes | 65.6 | 6,662 | 18.9 |
Election results in Broadmeadows at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
One of the few seats i expect to swing to Labor in TPP terms versus Libs. in 1992 Thomastown, Broadmeadows were among a few to swing to Labor despite a landslide loss.
There will be an increased vote for Victorian Socialists especially in the more Muslim parts of the seat
Agreed Nimalan,
Its quite possible Labor could have a slight rebound in the ttp.
@ SpaceFish
I would say Greenvale, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and St Albans all low SES seats should swing back not back to 2022 levels somwhere in between. Areas with large Muslim communities should see a Freedom Party to Victorian Socialists/Greens primary swing which should happen in TPP we saw that in the Federal level as well where there was a UAP to Greens/Socialists swing in high Muslim areas.
It seems from what I’ve seen on some of the media that there have been a few drive by shootings so perhaps the crime message could cut through here.
Yea but those criminals are voting labor so this seat won’t change.
This seat has always had an extremely high crime rate and has always voted Labor. Same with Dandenong, and Laverton (and it’s predecessors). The only seat with a very high crime I can recall the Liberals winning in my lifetime is Frankston.
The difference is Frankston is very Anglo and socially mixed which some affluent parts Broadmeadows Laverton and St Albans are always among the most dangerous parts of Melbourne and don’t really have any Liberal parts like Frankston does
I’ve put everything East of Melbourne airport into broadmeadows. Firstly because sunbury is over quota. Secondly Broadmeadows has better coi and more frequent transport links then Sunbury. I thought about putting it in Green vale but the numbers just get weitder. Next redistribution it can probably add the rest of Westmeadows but that wont fit this time
Greens are setting up a mobile office and are targeting here which is interesting.
While i dont think Greens will win Broadmeadows i expect them to surge here along with Victorian Socialists. I feel that Greens/VS will do well in CALD working class like ONP will do well in White Working Class both are good at grievance politics.
Makes for interesting campaign strategy and possibly points to more traditional targets in Albert Park or Northcote perhaps getting less attention from the greens?
It’s possible that Broadmeadows can become a Labor vs Greens contest if Greens and Victorian Socialists surge while One Nation eats into the Liberal vote. Labor will still comfortably win on Liberal and One Nation preferences.
@Maxim,
The Greens are still targeting Northcote, I know Albert Park has been thrown around but I don’t seem at the moment winning there although if they improve and Labor continues to do worse then Greens could be a serious threat. I was just surprised to see this seat in their mobile office visiting areas.
Broadmedows contains some booths that the Greens did very well + won in at the fed election. The Greens are probably more involved here than in the past.