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One of the few seats i expect to swing to Labor in TPP terms versus Libs. in 1992 Thomastown, Broadmeadows were among a few to swing to Labor despite a landslide loss.
There will be an increased vote for Victorian Socialists especially in the more Muslim parts of the seat
Agreed Nimalan,
Its quite possible Labor could have a slight rebound in the ttp.
@ SpaceFish
I would say Greenvale, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and St Albans all low SES seats should swing back not back to 2022 levels somwhere in between. Areas with large Muslim communities should see a Freedom Party to Victorian Socialists/Greens primary swing which should happen in TPP we saw that in the Federal level as well where there was a UAP to Greens/Socialists swing in high Muslim areas.
It seems from what I’ve seen on some of the media that there have been a few drive by shootings so perhaps the crime message could cut through here.
Yea but those criminals are voting labor so this seat won’t change.
This seat has always had an extremely high crime rate and has always voted Labor. Same with Dandenong, and Laverton (and it’s predecessors). The only seat with a very high crime I can recall the Liberals winning in my lifetime is Frankston.
The difference is Frankston is very Anglo and socially mixed which some affluent parts Broadmeadows Laverton and St Albans are always among the most dangerous parts of Melbourne and don’t really have any Liberal parts like Frankston does
I’ve put everything East of Melbourne airport into broadmeadows. Firstly because sunbury is over quota. Secondly Broadmeadows has better coi and more frequent transport links then Sunbury. I thought about putting it in Green vale but the numbers just get weitder. Next redistribution it can probably add the rest of Westmeadows but that wont fit this time
Greens are setting up a mobile office and are targeting here which is interesting.
While i dont think Greens will win Broadmeadows i expect them to surge here along with Victorian Socialists. I feel that Greens/VS will do well in CALD working class like ONP will do well in White Working Class both are good at grievance politics.
Makes for interesting campaign strategy and possibly points to more traditional targets in Albert Park or Northcote perhaps getting less attention from the greens?
It’s possible that Broadmeadows can become a Labor vs Greens contest if Greens and Victorian Socialists surge while One Nation eats into the Liberal vote. Labor will still comfortably win on Liberal and One Nation preferences.
@Maxim,
The Greens are still targeting Northcote, I know Albert Park has been thrown around but I don’t seem at the moment winning there although if they improve and Labor continues to do worse then Greens could be a serious threat. I was just surprised to see this seat in their mobile office visiting areas.