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The Swing against labor was quite violent in the ttp but in the primary vote it mostly didn’t go to Liberals but instead to Family First.
@ SpaceFish
Family First did not run 2018 nor did any Christian Party but they did in 2014. In Yuroke (predeccor seat) in 2014, Australian Christians got 71.1% and Family First 5.2% if the ran in 2018 i dont know how much they would have got. The Assyrian/Chaldean community often vote for Christian Right parties. There was also a Muslim independent called Fatma who ran in 2022 and did well in Muslim parts of the seat but badly elsewhere. She had a HTV that put Labor last which inflated the swing against Labor in 2PP in a seat with low levels of education and English people would have followed the HTV religiously. I expect this one of the few seats that will swing to Labor. I expect Victorian Socialists/Greens to do well due to Palestine which has meant Muslims have largely forgotton about lockdowns. In the seat of Calwell there was a notional swing to Labor especially in Meadow Heights. It will be great to calculate this seat on Federal results.