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For those who missed the news at the time, Gaetano Greco (who got within striking distance in 2022 as an independent) died earlier this year. I haven’t seen any indication of any independents with similar profile standing this time.
It will be interesting to see where the people who voted for him last time park their vote.
Greco campaigned strongly on the Preston Market last time. He did well in the poorer parts around Reservoir so i assumed it got some working class voters who were angry about lockdowns. Note in 2022 Federal election, there was a slight swing to Coalition on TPP terms. Note the northern parts of this seat is more like Scullin/Thomastown than it is to the trendy progressive inner north.
At the federal election, there was a cluster of booths in the north east part of Cooper – overlapping with Preston – where the One Nation vote was in the 8 – 10% range. That could be a base to build from – there could be a ON vote in the double digits here if the ON momentum continues. As others have said, there could end up being a substantial but not seat winning ON vote at the outer end of the Mernda train line.
I think ONP has support among Southern/Eastern Europeans as i have mentioned before in this seat there are Macedonians but most of this seat is way too gentified now including part of Resevior such as Regent and Edwards Lake. It is the area around Keon Park/Ruthven that remains working Class.