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When I last checked Darren Cheeseman was still plague levels of unpopularity for hanging on and basically wasting the seat, despite all the work that went into the level crossing removals here. Labor could be in for some punishment here and as Corangamite showed federally the strong trend towards them in this part of the state could be out of steam
This seat is trending progressive but Labor does not have the advantage of a sitting MP.
Might be the best chance the libs have to win
South Barwon booths in Corangamite were a mixed bag for the Libs. Some small swings towards them, but some big swings against them in a handful of booths. If Katos tries to get back in, on the back of his council stint, I’d expect the Libs to go backwards. They could try running TradieSoldierDud, but his federal campaign gained little traction, despite a big spend. I’m surprised we don’t yet know who Labor will be running. And no one is expecting Cheeseman will recontest.
Labor hold, I do think there will be a swing against them due to the current member.
If Labor had a sitting MP i would be confident of a Labor hold but at this stage i only put as Lean Labor rather than Solid Labor.