To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
When I last checked Darren Cheeseman was still plague levels of unpopularity for hanging on and basically wasting the seat, despite all the work that went into the level crossing removals here. Labor could be in for some punishment here and as Corangamite showed federally the strong trend towards them in this part of the state could be out of steam
This seat is trending progressive but Labor does not have the advantage of a sitting MP.
Might be the best chance the libs have to win
South Barwon booths in Corangamite were a mixed bag for the Libs. Some small swings towards them, but some big swings against them in a handful of booths. If Katos tries to get back in, on the back of his council stint, I’d expect the Libs to go backwards. They could try running TradieSoldierDud, but his federal campaign gained little traction, despite a big spend. I’m surprised we don’t yet know who Labor will be running. And no one is expecting Cheeseman will recontest.
Labor hold, I do think there will be a swing against them due to the current member.
If Labor had a sitting MP i would be confident of a Labor hold but at this stage i only put as Lean Labor rather than Solid Labor.
Premier Jacinta Allan has announced on social media that Rebecca Thistleton will be Labor’s candidate for South Barwon in the upcoming VIC state election. Rebecca Thistleton contested the seat of Melbourne in the 2022 VIC state election.
Local Geelong councillor Ron Nelson has stepped down from his Deputy Mayor role in order to seek Liberal pre-selection here
Fashion designer Libby Pettit is the Liberal candidate here. She was backed by Bev McArthur which helped her win preselection against Ron Nelson . She is based in Little River which is in the electorate of Lara but considering Rebecca Thistleton lived in inner city Melbourne up until recently this shouldn’t be an issue for her.
Jess Wilson visited this seat and promised a High school for Mount Duneed. I actually feel this is more of a mortgage belt seat now with Torquay removed and very little coastline but a lot of new housing estates. The swing is this seat to Labor was bigger than any other seat in 2022 but that was a sophomure surge. All Labor 2022 pick ups with the notable exceptions of Nepean and Hawthorn has swings to them. I personally feel we should work on the 2018 margin in this seat which on current boundaries which is 3.0% the question realy who will vote Labor in 2026 that did not in 2018 so even the Eastern Suburbs seats which had a swing to Labor in 2022 should be analysed on that Question
The Libs could run an Anti-SRL campaign here saying that Geelong Fast Rail was dumped in favour of it.
https://vic.liberal.org.au/news/2023-11-16-labors-fast-rail-to-geelong-derails-before-it
* All Labor pick ups in 2018 has swings to them in 2022 with the exception of Nepean and Hawthorn.
South Barwon has added 9,000 electors since the last election – it is now the sixth largest enrolment in Victoria – and looking at Google Earth, these people would be in the new housing estates being built around Armstrongs Creek and Mount Duneed. This adds a huge amount of volatility to this seat as well as the sitting Labor MP being disendorsed and the promised Torquay Hospital disappearing. It would seem that this could be prime One Nation territory despite it being a seat that the Liberals really need to win. Does anybody here have any local insights?
@ Redistributed northern Geelong is prime ONP territory. This would be largely White millenial familes often who are Public service who who commute from Melbourne. education levels are above average and this area voted for the Voice. This mainly Corangamite which is trending socially progressive.
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/SAL20068