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Maree Edwards is well into her 60s. What are the chances she gets the tap on the shoulder and Jacinta Allan contests here since there’s the risk she might lose Bendigo East to the Nats.
@Dan M possibly or maybe she decides to retire herself given that her husband passed this year and she’s been caring for him for a long time before his passing. However the speaker’s salary could be quite tempting for her to keep going.
This seat is unwinnable for Coaltion these days as it includes the poorer parts of Bendigo and the tree change areas of Mount Alexander. Of the 1999 regional gains, Bendigo East is the last seat that is held by the same MP in other seats (Geelong, 2 Ballarat seats, Macedon (Gisborne), Labor has been able to pass the baton to a successor. Ripon was Liberal held between 2014-2022 due to rediistribution only. Morwell/Narracan were lost in 2006 and probably will never be won back. It remains untested whether Labor can hold Bendigo East without Jacinta Allan, i think Labor does not want to surrender the seat regardless of Jacinta Allan. They would probably rather loose Government and hold Bendigo East than loose the seat that way they can ask Jacinta Allan only to resign from Parliament after a honeymoon period for Battin has ended and they can plan for a successor.
@Nimalan I’m pretty sure Jacinta Allan lives in Bendigo East as well rather than west (which is funny as her electorate office is actually in Bendigo West as it’s across the rail line that divides the electorate).
One thing that will work in Labor’s favour is that Bendigo East doesn’t contain Rochester like the Federal seat. But she’ll need to sandbag the suburbs and the eastern part hard because the north will vote Nationals like they always do.
Whilst in Bendigo West Maree Edwards only really has to fend off the Greens because they’re getting No.2 rather than Liberal/National.
Tommo, although I can think of plenty of examples of Speakers (both at state and federal levels) who have chosen to retire rather than run for re-election.
At recent elections these include Michelle Roberts (Labor, WA); Jonathan O Dea (Liberal, NSW); Curtis Pitt (Labor, Queensland) and Tony Smith (Liberal, federal).
@ Tommo9
Correct Bendigo East does not have Rochester which is a traditional conservative country town. This benefits Jacinta allan. The Nationals will do well in places like Elmore as they did Federally that town as a strong ONP vote. Jacinta Allan will need to ensure support in the Middle Class Suburban parts of Bendigo remain with her. One disadvanatage is Bendigo East does not have Mount Alexander and Macedon Ranges which helped prevent Nats winning the seat Federally.
@tommo i dont think the people of Bendigo care which side of the line there member lives especially if it’s a labor stronghold there no need to live in the actual seat if your in a city where arbitrary lines mean not much. As long as your not from the other side of the state or the beach front like Andrew Charlton.
I did mention this strategy a while ago as it would be a way for Allen to retain her seat given the real threat. If Allen switches and lathlean runs he will Bendigo east easily
@nimlan labor would trade Jacinta Allen’s seat for power anyway of the week. Labor is about the Labor party and would and has traded away leaders in ecange. For power. They would absolutely rather retain government and lose Bendigo east then retain it and lose. Labor would be a lot better off without Allen, she is the main drag on the labor vote they even contemplated knifing her should the federal election go bad in Victoria to hold onto power
john
What I mean is that Labor probably thinks long term if they are planning for defeat they are probably planning to make sure Libs are a one term government like last time in such as instance it is they need loose as few seats as possible so they can return to power in 2030 if they loose Bendigo east it is possible Coalition can retain it in 2030 but if they loose Yan Yean in 2026 they may regain it 2030
The coalition could probably hold yan yean in 2030 especially if labor are still in government. I’d like to see it lose nilimbuk and parts south of bridge inn road whilst gaining parts of Mitchell from kakallo.
@ John
What I said was a scenario where Coalition wins government in 2026 if they win Yan Yean they may loose it in 2030 but if they win Bendigo East they will likely retain it in 2030 as it is easier seat to entrench themselves in.
Tbh i can’t see the lpcoalition getting the 17 seats they need to forma majority