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This seat will be very interesting if the rumours of David Farley leaving One Nation is true. If the LNP gets its act together, this seat has potential to flip back to them under good circumstances. After all, if they do come into a contest against One Nation. After all, they will act as a preference funnel against One Nation and if David Farley runs and preferences them above One Nation and cuts into their support this seat is there for the taking.
However, the National vs Liberal contest here is something to watch. The Nationals did better in Griffith, Narrandera, Leeton & Deniliquin. The Liberals did better in Corowa, Moama, Hay & Albury, of which Albury single-handedly tilted the overall percentage in the Liberals advantage. I think that for the future of the LNP here, it might be wiser to run a National only, as the Nationals could cut into One Nation’s advantage in the rural towns One Nation crushed the LNP & Milthorpe in last election. The Liberals will probably run a candidate though, and they definitely need that support in Albury so it isn’t the worst option.
On David Farley possibly turning independent and running for re-election now, his electoral prospects are weird. If he makes the count against One Nation, he will probably win re-election, as I think the LNP would preference him over One Nation, but against any other candidate outside of a teal he would probably lose. With his politics, I think his main base of support would be places like Griffith, Narrandera(his home town) & Leeton but he would really need to work on building support in Albury to watch out for One Nation. Problem is, is that there’s a solid shot One Nation don’t make the count if David Farley can cut into their vote in the Riverina part of the seat. Also, another teal might not be as effective as Milthorpe either.