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I wonder if Michelle Milthorpe will run here and if she’ll be able to cut through that bit further. If Lee is still leader when the next election is over she’ll have to be out of the seat so if electorate doesn’t rally behind here she could be in trouble. If Lee is dumped as leader and retires I expect the Liberals will lose this and either the independent or Nationals will win it.
She says she will. I’d say the libs would retain here its too urban for the Nats. In fact the libs might get a swing too them without Ley.
Ley will get a a juicy pension when she retires. At this rate, I don’t see her becoming the PM. If she gets dumped this term, I’d expect her to retire from politics.
Interestingly, the independent candidate in 2025 won the 2CP at all booths in Sussan Ley’s hometown of Albury. She even beat Ley on primary votes at some booths in Albury. It’s not surprising since there is normally a strong primary vote for Labor and the Greens in Albury.
I doubt a teal candidate would win this. Other than Albury, most of the electorate depends on carbon-intensive primary industries.
In a way it’s unfortunate that electorates have to be contained to state boundaries, because clearly Albury shares a very strong community of interest with Wodonga and they would be well served by a mostly urban seat based on the wider Albury-Wodonga region, rather than this expansive rural seat. Given how rural it is, surely Nats would win a by-election.
You could make arguments for ditching state boundaries as boundaries for electorates. Albury-Wodonga and the Gold Coast-Tweed Heads are similar communities, but they’re represented way differently.
However, when we get into the process of redistributions, that’s where it gets tricky.
CJ, the issue of major urban areas crossing state borders is not a unique one to Australia. In the US, there are many examples of metropolitan areas which cross multiple state borders (most notably New York City with suburban areas that extend into adjacent New Jersey, but others like Cincinnati-Covington which straddles Ohio and Kentucky and Kansas City which straddles Kansas and Missouri). In all these cases, congressional districts cannot cross state borders and thus these urban areas will be disjoined.
Adam as a resident i can assure you this would be a lib vs ind seat. Most of the population is contained in Albury. Corowa or Griffith.
Cj the difference is albury wodonga is seperatedated by and island and river. Gold Coast is not near Tweed Heads its about 30-40 minutes away. It’s coolangatta thats near Tweed Heads. You can literally walk between them. You can stand in coolangatta and Tweed at the same time. During daylight savings you can be in two different time zones.
Cross border seats would never happen as the seats are divided by state with each state being entitled to a certain. Umber of seats.
I personally have no love for Ley. I would be willing to wager the lib voters might actually improve in her absence.
new demos poll has onp winning 12 lower house seats
https://demosau.com/news/mrp-model-projects-one-nation-would-win-12-seats/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOdvsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETBrRDBkeDFFUjA3Y1lFc0Qzc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHo6jMHuBSSJUa5cbMi7YldbJ6Jc0Jn4NIQT2s4ZsiYtIMlcUKxjUrpHd7de9_aem_0umJvrtWbRojtruLGR-Dtw