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Usually I would say the trend here has been that it’s a risk for the Liberals and ripe for Labor to pick up if they ran the right candidate.
However, this area swung against the grain at the federal election – towards the Liberal Party (pretty hard in some booths) – even despite Josh Burns’ popularity and personal vote.
Southwick will easily retain here with an increased margin.
Southwick might retire?
I would say if Southwick does retire, which is certainly possible after being at the centre of the Deeming saga having taken the secret recordings, it will probably remain quite marginal because a very significant personal vote will be lost.
Liberals should still comfortably retain I would say, this certainly isn’t the election nor period of time in which Labor will finally swoop in and pick up Caulfield, but it’ll at least be a closer contest if Southwick doesn’t run and Labor choose the right candidate.
@ Trent
I agree i think there will be a Jewish swing to the Libs even if all non-Jewish residents vote exactly the same as they did in 2022. Plus this is still an affluent electorate so Private School Payroll Tax, Land Tax will hurt Labor here. I feel that Southwick has had a greater profile since October 7 and unlike Pesutto he often appears with Brad Battin at events so i think there is a better relationship between these. Southwick is never really attacked on Sky After Dark etc.