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The opinion polling at state level is disastrous for the Liberals and I think Bragg is in danger. Bragg swung strongly to Labor in the 2022 SA & federal elections and the 2025 federal election. If the results were replicated in Bragg on federal results, Labor would hold it by 1%. On state level, assuming a uniform swing.
– 2022 result: 54.3% ALP
– 2022 by-election result: 56.8% ALP
Additionally, a rough calculation of results in the Voice Referendum had this seat barely voting No, but it was very close (I wasn’t able to get full results for a few reasons).
Obviously things can change, plus Labor may not bother to target here and Jack Batty may blunt the swing with a sophomore surge, but nonetheless if Labor won Bragg then every Liberal member in the seat’s history (and probably many others) would be absolutely convulsing seeing if that came to fruition. I myself would be absolutely shell-shocked if that happened.
James, based on current polling it appears that the next SA election would be an inverse of the 1993 landslide which saw state Labor reduced to just 10 seats.
@Yoh An – absolutely. I read that the Liberals could be reduced to a 2021 WA-like showing of just 2 seats, Chaffey and Flinders (barring an independent challenger). Bragg is the safest in Adelaide so there is a thin chance Jack Batty may hang on but judging on federal moods I feel he is gone. The Liberals would also lose seats like Schubert on this swing which will be absolutely shocking.
Agree James, already the Liberals are at a relatively low point with 16 seats (similar to their holdings post the 2006 mini landslide under Mike Rann where they held 15). It is like WA as Mark McGowan won a substantial victory in 2017 (41 out of 59 seats) then improved again with a further swing and total wipeout in 2021.
@James @Yoh An if the polls are right this is gone and Adelaide will be entirely red.
It has been quite common for Labor leaders to win an election as the opposition leader by a small margin and then get re-elected the following election with a thumping landslide e.g. Mike Rann, Bob Carr, Peter Beattie, Dan Andrews, Steve Bracks. Peter Malinauskas and Mark McGowan won government with sizable majorities for their first term.
Labor has already announced candidates for some Liberal seats with lower margins but I don’t see one for Bragg yet.