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Mackillop MP Nick McBride has been arrested and charged with assault, possible by-election incoming?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/sa-mp-nick-mcbride-arrested-and-charged-with-assault/105171922
Will this be the third Labor by election gain from the Libs in a row?
Doesn’t matter how well Labor is doing, they are never gaining this seat.
Most likely they don’t contest the by-election. Maybe an independent or Nationals can make this interesting.
Labor could win all of the Adelaide seats in 2026, but not regional ones like MacKillop.
@Dan M – no way in hell Labor will win Mackillop. Even if they are getting an exceptionally-high 2PP this seat is absolutely bulletproof.
I agree with @James, Labor can’t win this.
As for Adelaide I think if the election was held today Labor would win every seat there except Bragg.
Very possible Liberal gain here with the IND facing assualt charges
I actually will go here and say I think the Liberals will win here and in Mount Gambier.
– MacKillop is held by Nick McBride but he’s got some level of notoriety with the recent assault charges which could damage his reputation. You could also argue that this is a seat the current state of the Liberals is currently appealing to so theoretically they could do well here. Labor cannot win here, full stop.
– Mount Gambier is interesting as Troy Bell has resigned and this seat will have no state representation until the next election. The Liberals have already endorsed a candidate, and I’d say any independent would be praying to not get the endorsement of Bell. I’d tip a Liberal gain for now but wouldn’t be surprised if Labor come close. Don’t really know if there’s any sort of prominent independent here but open to hear any thoughts.
Appears the incumbent has been charged with assault over a new DV incident. This seat is almost certainly going to go Liberal, Labor had already ruled out a preference deal with McBride
Given how unpopular the Liberals are and that there former member is in trouble Labor could narrow this up and make it very uncomfortably close, the Liberals will need to sandbag this.