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It’s hard to be certain, but on federal results this could well be an ALP vs Greens 2CP, which is certainly surprising. Would not be surprised to see One Nation make the 2CP either, there’ll certainly be a grand battle to see who’ll get clobbered 70-30 by Labor.
Based on federal results, the Greens beat the Liberals at a number of polling booths on primary votes. However, the right-wing vote was quite split. Preference flows from One Nation, Family First and Trumpet of Patriots would’ve helped the Liberals.
At the state election, even if the Liberals primary vote falls, they might still finish second after preferences because the Greens and One Nation preference the Liberals ahead of each other.
Greens may trivially get into 2nd here or in other ultra safe Labor seats but would they be able to do anything with that status? I don’t see them putting resources into this seat
@ BNJ
They may get into 2nd in St Albans in Victoria as well. It is interesting as this is the opposite of the realignment theory this seat has very low education and is very disadvanataged.
Lee Odenwalder announced his retirement around 10 days ago, Labor has already preselected a new candidate, Ella Shaw.
Labor retain, and I do think there’s a chance the Greens could get second here, but they won’t come close to winning.
Elizabeth to Labor is like Mackillop or Chaffey to the Liberals. It will never flip even if hell comes close to freezing over. Greens economic policies will resonate here but social policies are just meh as the socioeconomic/education levels here are low for a metropolitan electorate. The Liberals’ brand are tarnished here thanks to the Federal brand led by Abbott dismantling Holden a decade ago.
@ Tommo9
I think Hastie is trying to appeal to Northern Adelaide with his Car video.
@Nimalan good luck to him for that but he’s going to be preaching to deaf ears because the northern suburbs are not as white bread as it was 10 or even 20 years ago. There’s a big and growing Muslim, African and SE Asian population in northern Adelaide. Hastie won’t be liked up there at all.
Tommo – would that make this area akin to other manufacturing heavy suburbs interstate that also have high CALD minority populations (places like Fairfield/Yennora in Sydney, Somerton/Roxburgh Park in Melbourne and Moorooka/Salisbury in Brisbane). These places would not be supportive of the Liberal Party that continues to support far right, culture war issues and it is a huge mistake for the Coalition to assume they would be like the rust belt towns in the US that backed Trump with ease.
@Yoh An Yes, probably moreso given that even without the CALD population, the Liberals have never been popular up this way because they’re perceived as anti-manufacturing and anti-blue collar despite Dutton and co trying to present otherwise during the last campaign. Everyone here knows it was under the Liberals that Holden went bust and moved away, there’s no flip side to it. The area’s one of the fastest growing but also one of the increasingly deprived areas of Adelaide. Only economic populism works well here and the Liberals aren’t well known for that.