Sussan Ley has announced that she will be retiring from politics following her loss of the Liberal leadership this morning.
That means there will be a by-election for her seat of Farrer. I have converted my federal election guide into a by-election guide which you can read now, with no paywall.
Farrer was a National Party seat up until 2001, when former deputy prime minister and National leader Tim Fischer retired, opening the door to an inter-coalition contest.
Sussan Ley defeated her National rival by just 206 votes after preferences, and has held the seat for the last quarter-century.
The Nationals would undoubtedly be looking to win back the seat, but One Nation is also eyeing off this rural electorate. Barnaby Joyce has already publicly stated that the party will be running.
An independent, Michelle Milthorpe, also polled 20% at the last election and reached 43.8% of the vote after preferences.
I don’t think Labor will run, but between the Liberal Party, the Nationals, One Nation and possibly an independent, it should be a very complex contest.
Well this will be interesting for sure? The final four in 2025 after preferences were:
Ley 45.74% including 1% donkey
PHON: 12.12%
ALP: 19.07%
Independent : 24.5%
But here is the twist, PHON preferences went 44.11% to Ley, 8.05% to ALP & 46.84% to the independent. Ley would have had he weakest PHON preference flow in NSW? & also the ALP had the weakest PHON leakage in NSW?
& then there is another twist ALP preferences went to Ley 26% Independent 74%. Ley would have had the strongest ALP preference flow in NSW against an independent?
So what to make of this for April by-election?
Ley had a strong personal vote & it’s tranferance will depend on who the Liberals select?
My guess this time is that there is a conservative vote of 58% available when we get down to the last 5 candidates this time because ALP will not increase it’s vote.That conservative vote is available to PHON, Nationals, Liberals & clearly the current independent, as many PHON preferenced her in 2025.
The National vote is demographically in decline. If the opinion polls are right PHON is Rising Fast (could win a Melbourne Cup?)
But it’s a byelection – so no serious consequences if the voter lets their head go?
My bet is that the final count will be between the Independent & PHON (pushing past Liberals with National preferences) & then Liberal preferences will elect the Independent. So that means the Taylor Liberals finish third.
As expected.
Angus in a spot of bother.
RogerRoughead
Giesle Kapterian in Bradfield (Liberal candidate) had a much higher preference flow from Labor than Ley had – 31.4%. At the 3CP stage it was 32.3%
I keep saying this but no ones listens…
RogerRoughead
An April by-election won’t be practical because every Saturday clashes with school holidays or public holiday. I think it will be in May.
It sounded like Ley wants to spend her last few weeks as a backbencher. Parliament resumes in March. She will likely give a farewell speech and then leave.
@ Votante
I agree it should be after Easter so it does not clash with peoples travel plans
Sounding like the Wagga byelection
Rumour Helen Dalton.mp for half the seat may nominate.
Bad result if seat lost to.the liberals
Either of the Saturdays 2 May or 9 May, just before the 12 May Budget, could cause significant grief to several participants.
There was a report on the weekend that Justin Clancy – the Liberal MP for Albury – might put his hand up for preselection. He would have high name recognition in the Albury end of Farrer but it is a high risk strategy. He might not win Farrer and then the Libs might then lose a state by election. That would make things even worse 12 months out from the NSW election.
Interesting that this by election will fall under the old political donation rules so there will still be room for big money donations from Climate 200 and similar entities.
Must win by-election for Angus Taylor I would have thought. Interesting to see if Sussan Ley goes quietly or does a Turnbull a la Wentworth.
The first thing to say about Farrer is how is there a seat in the federal Parliament called “Riverina’ and it not be this seat??
High Street
The Riverina is a big region stretching all the way from the Alps at Tumut through Wagga to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. The seat of Riverina covers the eastern half of what we know as the Riverina.
This is probably a question for Ben
By elections generally have a lower turn out than general elections and this may impact the vote for one party or another – for example the Greens probably suffered in the Prahran by election because their voters tend to be younger, less connected with the process and quite possibly outside the electorate on the day without an opportunity to cast an Absentee vote.
In a regional / rural electorate like Farrer, how much would the turn out drop?
Does regional by election turn out drop by less than metropolitan by elections?
With a drop in turn out which party / group would be most be most advantaged / disadvantaged?
It would seem that the Murray River towns could be most affected as voters could be in Victoria on the day if they had not already voted.
Yes turnout is usually a bit lower. I think it’s partly driven by less attention, so voters are more likely to miss the memo. I don’t have much to say about the impact of that.
At the 2025 general election, Farrer voters could prepoll vote in Echuca and Mildura, Vic. Both PPVCs served their own electorates as well as neighbouring Farrer. I don’t believe there are out-of-electorate PPVCs at by-elections. The reduced number of polling places would lower the turnout rate.
Seems like in a crowded field finishing first on primaries is a must – especially if preferences spray.
Albury is the strongest Liberal voting area – and represents 1/3 of the total electorate. So running the State MP gives the Libs name recognition and the best chance of maximising their primary.
If the Nats beat the Libs on Primary does at least some of the Lib vote go to the Teal/ Independent? Presumably the Nats primary would flow more strongly to the Lib or ON rather than the Teal?
The Teal/Independent presumably needs to finish 1st on primary and hope enough of the Conservative/Labor vote comes to her on preferences to win.
If the Nats win over the Libs does Taylor still get to claim this as a win?
No reason for Labor NOT to run in this by election.. They got 24% in the Senate vote last year. Even if they get 15% it will be about the same as every other candidate/party gets. There is no one guaranteed of getting >20% primary.
Take it as an opportunity to demonstrate to people how dangerous it is to “strategically vote” in such an uncertain electoral environment and the value of preferences. Progressing both messages helps Labor overall in future elections
In contests like this the Independent does not need to get most primary votes, just get enough preferences from the primaries at the bottom to move into second place, then clean up the preferences that are left. I have voted strategically in Mayo and with Labor coming third, their preferences pushed the independent over the line against the Lib who won the primary vote.
At this stage, the best Labor would seem to do would be 5th place behind – in no particular order – Liberal, National, Michell Milthorpe and One Nation. If Helen Dalton decided to run as an independent (not One Nation) then 6th place would be a real possibility. Would a sitting government – even in a seat they have never come close to winning – want to be seen in 5th or 6th place? The optics would not be good.
If Helen Dalton did run as an independent, this race could get really messy as she would probably take votes away from Milthorpe. Potentially you could have 6 candidates all on about 15%. The Greens will run – they always do – it could come down to who else comes out of the woodwork and as Trevor says above, those small packets of votes at the bottom might be crucial – though will probably not end up with Libs or Nats if history is any guide.
Why would Labor contest here? What do they have to gain? The seat is safely conservative on a 2PP scale and they already have a large majority – why spend the money and risk embarrassment like in Hinchinbrook?
When does Sussan Ley actually resign? If she doesn’t resign soon it has to be a May or June by-election which runs into the Federal Budget?
Presumably Labor would want her to resign asap – so a short by-election campaign can be held before the Easter School Holidays?
The window has been missed for a 28 March by election – the following week is Easter so 11 or 18 April would be feasible.
A question – the changes to electoral funding law come into force on July 1. Does that mean any election after July 1 or any donation after July 1? If the former, that would snooker a big spend by Michelle Milthorpe with her Climate 200 money. How long can it be strung out?
Why all this incessant bothering about “optics” and ’embarrassment”. When was the last time anyone mentioned the Labor vote in the Hinchinbrook by election – other than on here?
Risk involves likelihood AND consequence. What is the negative consequence if a Government gets a low primary vote in a seat where they always get a low primary vote?? There is a high likelihood that Labor would get a low primary vote in the Farrer by election, but no RISK to it.
Redistributed, your send paragraph sets out a very good case why Labor SHOULD run. “Potentially you could have 6 candidates all on about 15%. The Greens will run – they always do”. Exactly what Labor strategists need to hear.
The Speaker cannot call a by-election until the Member actually submits a written resignation letter?
Ley may not be very happy with the Liberal Party having been rolled as leader, but the timing of her actual resignation is another matter. My sense is she won’t be anti-party in her attitudes but we will soon know.
@ Trevor, you do realise that by voting strategically in Mayo last year, you and other like you may have cost Labor a chance to win the seat? Is that what you wanted?
Labor won the 2PP in Mayo. If LIB, ALP and Sharkie had all been equal on about 24-25% primary and Sharkie has been ultimately excluded, Labor would have won on the preferences coming from the voters who put her higher than both Liberal and Labor.
If you truly preferred Sharkie over Labor, that’s fine, But that’s not voting “strategically” that’s just called ‘voting”.
VOTING STRATEGICALLY IS IRRATIONAL
@High Street – campaigns cost money, there’s a reason major parties sit them out when they have little/no hope of winning, the ‘risk’ is in getting a poor ROI on those monies spent, and then potentially destabilising a party leader or giving credence to negative public perceptions needlessly, not to mention potentially demoralising the local branch or even endangering the chances of Labor’s preferred candidate (Milthorpe) winning the seat through leakage (keep in mind it’s going to be a looooong ballot paper).
Hinchinbrook was a minor event on the electoral calendar, that’s why it is not mentioned often, but all the media reporting at the time was focussed on what an embarrassment to Miles it was, should a similar thing happen now that might seriously put his future leadership in doubt
Blah, blah, blah. Frankly Maxim – that’s all bull shit to support your original view.
I know campaigns cost money, but Labor would have spent VERY little on Farrer in the general election so why do they need to run hard and spend a lot in the by election? What voters aren’t even affected by the spend – 75% of Labors general election vote would vote for them again regardless of how much or how little they spent in the by-election
I can tell you with supreme confidence, the thing that MOST demoralizes the local branch is NOT running in by elections.
Also, Labor’s preferred candidate is the LABOR candidate – not Milthorpe. It is not the Labor Party’s job – nor necessarily in their best long term interest – to help IND’s get elected.
“all the media reporting at the time was focussed on what an embarrassment to Miles”. Like the PM said yesterday – I call bullshit on that. There was a couple of comments from election analysts but precious little. The federal government is not going to be brought down or harmed by a low primary vote in a Farrer by-election, despite media hyper-ventilating about it
“should a similar thing happen now that might seriously put his future leadership in doubt”. You in contact with what the QLD Labor MP’s are thinking are you…??? They probably think the better for him for sticking his neck out and having a go.
And yet the proof is in the pudding, major parties who are unlikely to win or influence the outcome of a by-election positively don’t run in them
But High Street always knows best lol
As the Soviets used to say, I respect High Street’s “partiinost” but Farrer does seem an unlikely Labor prospect. Looking back over previous election results Labor seems to have done well to get a primary in the low 20’s.
Labor would be wise to clear the field for Milthorpe.
Theories such as “clear the field for Milthorpe” do not make sense in a preferential system.
Labor will not run. Why divert attention from the “main story”. LNP V PHON V Independent. Let the animosity build and build? & Every seat that the coalition lose to an independent makes it harder for them to ever form Government. The term is herding cats with no disrespect to various independents. & It makes the coalition less relevant. I see Antony Green says that the current seat is better for the Nationals than the Liberals. If it pans out that way it will help Milthorpe as she will get many Liberal preferences. Does anybody know what the Liberals are doing about their pre-selection?
Jacob Greber on ABC Politics podcast today says Labor are weighing it up. I suggest people go and listen to it – he always talks very rationally.
Sportsbet has an independent (unnamed) as the favourite, followed by the Nationals, PHON and Liberals. Michelle Milthorpe has had a headstart whilst the Liberals, Nationals and PHON figuring out their candidates. No sign of Helen Dalton running but still early days – Ley hasn’t officially resigned yet.
I expect Ley to tender her resignation in March sometime when parliament sits. The by-election date will likely be in May to avoid the school holidays and Anzac Day.
As at mid-morning on Friday 27 February, Sussan Ley has formally resigned from Parliament. The Speaker will then have to set a date that does not clash with public holidays (Easter & Anzac Day) and NSW school holidays. Saturday 2 May looks clear.
Milthorpe is clearly ready to go! By the looks of it didn’t even take the website down from the General Election.
https://michellemilthorpe.com.au/
Any news on Dalton? I’d be disappointed if she joined One Nation. She has never come across to me as of that ilk.
If Dalton runs as an independent, is it likely she would exchange preference recommendations with Milthorpe? Could this help the chances that one of them will be elected given their support bases are generally complementary?
Dalton isn’t running for One Nation. One Nation has a shortlist of candidates and her name isn’t on it.
https://regionriverina.com.au/independent-favoured-to-win-farrer-by-election-by-bookies-as-liberal-mp-confirms-he-wont-run/120088/
Justin Clancy, State MP a non-starter.
By-election May 9 with noms closing Apr 13. Smart timing – gets it out of the way before the Budget.