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This seat has more Labor friendly boundaries than in 2010 when Libs came close as it no longer includes Sunbury but includes ultra Left Daylesford/Hepburn Springs. This area is a bit like Eltham and Monbulk quite affluent but socially progressive.
Labor should hold here bar a landslide defeat, I suspect the whole crime thing here hasn’t had such a significant impact here unlike other seats on this side of town.
This area has some of the lowest crime rates in the state
Doubt it in a landslide this is a pretty green area. Though with the expansion in nearby Hume and Mitchell shire it could be more marginal in probably 10 years
Macedon is the sort of seat a moderate Liberal Party could win. If the government is returned, and Jess Wilson becomes Liberal Party leader then this seat could be worth watching in 2030.
Agree Pencil
to win this seat the Liberals needs to be economically right wing and socially moderate/agnostic.
Does the intention of Mary-Anne Thomas to retire at this election upset the balance here much? In my mind this seat was going to be retained by about half the current margin, now I wonder if it could go a couple of points closer? Doesn’t really seem like a great hunting ground for the Liberals but there could be some spillage from Labor if the Greens and ON are able to siphon off some votes with the departure of a high ranking minister.
This is seat is increasingly Tealish. I was predicting about 4-5% swing to Liberals maybe up to 6% with a no sitting MP.