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This seat has more Labor friendly boundaries than in 2010 when Libs came close as it no longer includes Sunbury but includes ultra Left Daylesford/Hepburn Springs. This area is a bit like Eltham and Monbulk quite affluent but socially progressive.
Labor should hold here bar a landslide defeat, I suspect the whole crime thing here hasn’t had such a significant impact here unlike other seats on this side of town.
This area has some of the lowest crime rates in the state