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@Nimalan, the thing is Teal Votes tends to actually tends to be Labor/Green Tactical Voting plus a fair amount of Former Traditional Liberal Voting White Collar Professionals/Doctor Wives which enabled the Teals to win. I don’t think the Teals would have won over business owners. With Kew having low population growth and rates of densification just like Brighton, Liberal would still be able to hold for the time being unless if there is a fats rate of densification.
@ Marh
I agree with that and what remains of the Liberal voter base at least Federally is buisness owners, older, asset owners etc. They have lost the tradie and farmer vote. The point i am trying to make is for Labor to win Hawthorn in 2026 (which people seems to suggest) when there polling is much worse than in 2018 it relies soley on densification outweighting a swing against Labor from voters who lives there in 2018. When Labor won Hawthorn in 2018 they got 43% of the primary vote statewide but they still got 11% less in Hawthorn and only 32.2% so if they are get around 26% of the primary vote statewide now it is fair to assume their primary vote in Hawthorn is less than that. I would assume the ONP vote in Hawthorn is less than the statewide vote, the Greens PV is higher, Liberal primary higher and the Labor primary below statewide vote.
Where Labor will have a major problem in seats as Kew and Hawthorn is that these are types of seats where the issues of CFMEU corruption and the perception of crime will really resonate. It is also possible that there might be some ongoing blowback from the federal budget as well. I could see the Labor vote collapsing in these areas and everybody else picking up a piece. The big problem that Teals have at a state level is that they don’t actually have many policies to run on beyond:
– we are not one of the major parties
– we are independents and we are nice
@ Redistributed i agree with you. Only thing Teals have to run on really is support for Treaty and Climate action. I agree these seats are Fiscally Conservative though
And climate action at the state level has more to do with things like building transmission lines rather than the overall principles of the issue.
@ Redistributed it really only makes an impact if ONP pushes Jess Wilson to repeal the state based Net Zero legisaltion targets, renewable energy targets and Push to extend life of Loy Yang and Yallourn power station.